Micah Roberts
FireKeepers Casino 400
1 #18 Kyle Busch (+650) - He only has one Cup win at Michigan, which is very surprising considering he has four wins at Fontana, which is almost the same layout as Michigan. The reason he offers so much value this week is that he's been the best collectively on the tracks using the high downforce race package with engines producing only 550 horsepower. Kyle Larson has led the most laps with it, but Busch has both his wins using it and has finished in the top-five in the last seven races using it after starting the season with a 10th-place at Homestead in February. He's beat Larson head to head in the last three races using this week's race package and Larson will likely be a -165 favorite over Busch on Sunday in head-to-head matchups. Might as well bet that too.
2 #5 Kyle Larson (+300) - Even before Larson was dominating NASCAR, he was winning at Michigan. He won three straight Michigan races in 2016-17. But he's been better with the 750 HP package, which has been raced 14 times already. He'll be great here rim-riding around the top of the track, but isn't attractive at 3-to-1 odds offered by Caesars Sportsbook when Kyle Busch is rated higher with this package. Scout around for the best odds if betting Larson to win.
3 #9 Chase Elliott (+750) - In 10 Michigan Cup starts he has a 7.7 average finish, which is best among active drivers. He's only had two top-five finishes in the eight races using the high downforce package and the last one was a runner-up at Charlotte in late May, which is the last time Larson won with this package.
4 #48 Alex Bowman (20/1) - This is the bet I'm most excited about this week after two weeks of inactivity due to the Olympics taking over NBC and two weeks of dreadful road course racing. His last start using the high downforce package was at Atlanta, where he finished fourth and was the top Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet. Before that he was seventh at Pocono after leading 18 laps, and before that he won at Pocono leading 16 laps.
5 #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1) - He's from Michigan, so he should have an edge, right? No, he's had a few heartache losses there, but no wins in 23 Cup starts. Last season he was runner-up in the Saturday race (two races, same weekend). He has seven top-fives at Michigan overall. I'll be betting him in a few driver matchups because he's been very competitive with this week's race package. He was third at Pocono after leading a race-high 31 laps. He was runner-up in the non-points All-Star Race at Texas, and he was runner-up at Las Vegas.