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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Betting Odds: Biden Drops Out of Race as Trump’s Momentum Builds
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Jason Lake
- July 24, 2024
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It’s amazing what you can get done when push comes to shove. The Democratic Party had plenty of concerns about transitioning from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris this late in the 2024 U.S. presidential election race, but instead of fracturing, the Dems have aligned themselves in full support of Harris.
According to the Associated Press and their running survey, Harris already has the support of 2,887 Democratic delegates as I write this, well above the 1,976 she needs to secure her party’s nomination. That has quelled any talk of a mini-primary or open convention that could easily cause the Dems more harm than good.
With the early positive buzz the Democrats are generating, the Kamala Harris odds are going through the roof. Bovada has Harris priced at -1600 to secure the nomination as we go to press; BetOnline and other online sportsbooks have her at -2000.
Now that Harris has essentially locked down the nomination with several weeks to go before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on August 19-22, we’ve reached yet another pivot point in the 2024 election. How will the American public respond – and where will the betting public put their money?
Bookmakers Review analyzes the betting odds released by election betting sites on the upcoming 2024 election.
U.S. Election Odds - Next President
Now that Kamala Harris’ nomination is all but official, the odds betting odds have moved again, going from +185 right after Biden announced his withdrawal from the race market to +150 as of press time.
Trump’s odds have also moved from -200 (66.67% implied win probability) to -170 (62.96% implied win probability).
- Donald Trump, former President (-170)
- Kamala Harris, Vice President (+150)
- Michelle Obama (+1700)
Publisher’s Note: The odds referenced in this article may have changed since publication. The odds table above shows real-time prices.
Presidential Election Odds Timeline
Will Kamala Harris Replace Joe Biden As President?
We might not be done with the twisting and turning. Even before Biden took himself out of the race, the Republican Party called for him to give up the presidency, citing his age and declining mental fitness – but those calls grew louder last Sunday.
“If Joe Biden is not fit to run for President, he is not fit to serve as President,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said in a prepared statement. “He must resign the office immediately.”
How much time and effort the Republicans will invest in trying to push Biden out remains to be seen. But the politics odds at Bovada suggest this is much more than a nothingburger; Biden is priced at -150 to complete his term, for an implied probability of just 60%.
Will Trump Debate Harris?
While the Democrats have their ducks in a row, the Republicans seem to be having some difficulty making this pivot. They suspected it was coming; their attacks at the GOP convention were increasingly directed toward “Biden/Harris” instead of just Biden. But now that the incumbent president is out of the race, Republican campaign strategists have been left on the back foot.
Debate Dynamics and Uncertainty
It’s no longer a given, for example, that Donald Trump will participate in the second televised presidential debate, originally scheduled for September 10 on ABC. The election odds say it’s probably still happening; Bovada has Yes priced at -400 and No at +275. But as soon as Biden dropped out, Trump started lashing out at ABC and said Fox News should host the debate instead.
Unlike the CNN debate on June 27, where Biden had everything to lose and little to gain, this time the onus is on Trump to perform. And the framing of this debate couldn’t be much worse for the Republicans: It’s the former District Attorney versus the convicted felon. “I know Donald Trump’s type,” Harris said Monday in her first campaign speech as the quasi-presumptive Dem nominee.
Strategic Calculations
Then again, there were questions about whether Trump would step into the ring against Biden on CNN, having clearly lost both their debates in 2020. But the same thing applies now that Harris has taken over: Trump isn’t trying to win the debate – he’s using the platform to get his message across. Don’t expect Trump to give up valuable TV time in the process.
In theory, Harris provides much the same foil for Trump that Hillary Clinton did back in 2016. We’ll probably see many of the same attack lines he used then as the 2024 election race unfolds; for now, Democrats appear confident that Harris will counter those attacks much more effectively than Clinton did. As Hawaii Senator Brian Schatz told the Associated Press Monday, the vibes are immaculate.
What Does Nate Silver Say?
He may not be in charge of FiveThirtyEight anymore, but Silver is still out there projecting the 2024 election – and his latest Silver Bulletin forecast has Trump ahead in the polls, 42.3% to 39.2% for Biden and 9.0% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Even before the CNN debate, Silver had Trump’s chances of victory at 66%, echoing the projections at The Economist. That’s well ahead of the 52% chance FiveThirtyEight is giving Trump. In theory, if Silver and The Economist are correct, Trump has betting value as long as he doesn’t reach –200, but that’s only if you overlook that apparent 4-point inflation in Republican polling.
In the meantime, we’re at this strange moment in time where the Democrats appear to be turning towards Harris as their eventual leader – but not before the 2024 election. Now the question is whether all those major media outlets like The New York Times who are calling for Biden to step down will make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
U.S. Election Polls and Betting Odds Advantage
The below table compares the poll and odds advantage from four years ago to this year’s election.
| Month | Poll advantage 2020 | Poll advantage 2024 | Odds Advantage 2020 | Odds Advantage 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | Biden +6 | Biden +4 | Trump -113 (53.05%) | Trump +100 (50%) |
| February | Biden +5 | Biden +5 | Trump -175 (63.64%) | Trump -104 (51.2%) |
| March | Biden +6 | Trump +3 | Trump -113 (53.05%) | Trump -117 (54.8%) |
| April | Biden +7 | Not available | Trump -129 (56.33%) | Not available |
| May | Biden +7 | Not available | Trump -103 (50.74%) | Not available |
| June | Biden +9 | Not available | Biden -163 (61.98%) | Not available |
| July | Biden +8 | Not available | Biden -178 (64.03%) | Not available |
| August | Biden +8 | Not available | Trump -116 (53.70%) | Not available |
| September | Biden +8 | Not available | Biden -133 (57.08%) | Not available |
| October | Biden +9 | Not available | Biden -194 (65.98%) | Not available |
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