2024 U.S. Presidential Election Betting Odds: Biden vs. Trump in Fierce Battle

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Former U.S. President Donald Trump attends UFC 302 at Prudential Center on June 01, 2024 in Newark, New Jersey. Luke Hales/Getty Images/AFP

The race to determine the next U.S. President is heating up as former Commander-in-Chief Donald Trump has been in and out of court.

Despite a conviction in the N.Y. hush money trial, Trump remains the betting favorite at political betting sites while he awaits sentencing on July 11.

Updated U.S. Presidential Election Odds

We said prior to his guilty verdict that Trump’s odds of winning in November were -165 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). While he suffered a minimal drop to -130 and -140, he is right back to -165 at BetOnline as if the trial had no bearing whatsoever on him. Biden has +145 odds, which implies a 40.8% chance of winning.


Presidential Election Odds Timeline: From Start of NY Trial to Conviction

Next President Odds Timeline
A timeline of the 2024 US Presidential election odds movement from the start of the N.Y. Hush money trial through Trump’s conviction.
  • March 30: Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election stood at -115 when he was indicted in New York.
  • April 4: Trump was arraigned and pleaded not guilty. His odds dropped to -105 on April 5, while Biden remained even money at +100.
  • April 15: The Hush Money trial started. Trump’s odds fluctuated between -120 and -165 until his conviction on May 30.
  • Post-conviction: Trump’s odds dropped to -130 initially and have since shortened to -165, while Biden’s odds increased to +145.

Donald Trump remains the betting favorite at -165 to win the 2024 Presidential Election. There is a 62.26% chance that Trump is elected the next U.S. President.


Republican Vice President Candidate Odds

One of the uncertainties surrounding Trump’s campaign far is who will be selected as his running mate for Vice President.

CandidateBetOnlineBovada
Tim Scott+350+375
Doug Burgum+500+500
Marco Rubio+600+850
J.D. Vance+650+600
Sarah Huckabee Sanders+1000+1000
Tulsi Gabbard+1200+1400
  • South Carolina Senator Tim Scott’s odds are available from +350 to +375.
  • North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum is the next most likely candidate to be selected as Trump’s running mate at the odds of +500.

Bookmakers Review will continue to monitor movement in the Presidential and Vice President betting odds race ahead of the November election.


First Presidential Election Rematch Since 1956

The last time America witnessed the same two candidates vying for the presidency was in 1956, when incumbent President Dwight D. Eisenhower defeated Adlai Stevenson for the second consecutive time.

In 2024, incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will once again face each other in November. Despite neither having been officially designated yet, both have garnered enough delegates to become the likely nominees for their respective parties.

But how did they perform in 2020? While we know that Biden emerged victorious over Trump, was he consistently the favorite throughout the race?

We have compiled Biden’s and Trump’s odds and poll standings over the 10 months leading up to Election Day. These figures represent an average of polling data for the same period, vetted by FiveThirtyEight. The odds provided are an average market price from top-rated sportsbooks.

MonthPoll advantage 2020 Poll advantage 2024 Odds Advantage 2020 Odds Advantage 2024
JanuaryBiden +6Biden +4 Trump -113 (53.05%) Trump +100 (50%)
FebruaryBiden +5 Biden +5 Trump -175 (63.64%) Trump -104 (51.2%)
MarchBiden +6 Trump +3 Trump -113 (53.05%) Trump -117 (54.8%)
AprilBiden +7Trump +3Trump -129 (56.33%) Trump -107 (51.69%)
MayBiden +7EvenTrump -103 (50.74%) Trump -140 (58.33%)
JuneBiden +9Trump +2Biden -163 (61.98%) Trump -140 (58.33%)
JulyBiden +8Not available Biden -178 (64.03%) Not available
AugustBiden +8Not available Trump -116 (53.70%) Not available
SeptemberBiden +8Not available Biden -133 (57.08%) Not available
OctoberBiden +8Not available Biden -194 (65.98%) Not available

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Battleground States: The Key to Victory in the Presidential Election

As with previous elections, attention turns to key battleground states, which have historically played a decisive role in determining the outcome. The Rust Belt region, comprising states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, swung in favor of Trump in 2016 and then shifted to Biden in 2020.

Understanding the significance of these states is crucial for predicting the 2024 outcome. In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin, which voted Republican for the first time since 1984, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania. In 2020, Biden reclaimed these states, securing 46 electoral votes and contributing significantly to his overall victory.


Trump: Jumping the Shark

Now that his trial is over, Trump is back heavy on the campaign trail. He made a stop in Las Vegas on Sunday and spoke outside despite temperatures topping over 100 degrees. Several people received medical treatment at the event, and there was also a Trump rally in Arizona where 11 people had to be treated for excessive heat.

Trump joked about the heat and admitted no one seemed to care about his health in the heat, and that he only cares about getting the votes from the attendees. However, he also treated those who braved the heat to a classic rambling story about whether he’d choose to be electrocuted by a battery on a boat or face shark-infested waters.

Trump will need to be sharper and more on topic when the debate starts on June 27th. On a more serious note, Trump obviously does not let the heat get to him, as he still is pushing the idea that climate change is no big deal at best and a hoax at worst. When asked about it recently, he likened climate change and rising sea levels to be okay as “you have a little more beachfront property.”

Countdown To Sentencing

In the meantime, Trump must turn over his firearms now that he is a convicted felon. He will have a few weeks to do that before his sentencing, which is scheduled for July 11, just a few days shy of the Republican National Convention, where he should announce his choice for his vice president.

There is still no hint at who that vice president pick will be. The odds at BetOnline have really tightened up with South Carolina Senator Tim Scott (+320), North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum (+400), Ohio Senator J.D. Vance (+450), and Florida Senator Marco Rubio (+450) all having odds of +450 or better.

All we know for sure is the choice will be someone who will show extreme loyalty to Trump.


Odds on Trump’s Incarceration in NY Case

In a way, Trump’s sentencing could be a good thing for Republicans, as it will keep Trump at the top of the news all week and going into the RNC. He’ll either have a huge axe to grind with the sentencing potentially including prison time, or he can scoff about house arrest or probation for a white-collar crime.

How likely is it that Trump will be sentenced to jail time?

Bovada logo
Prison Time +400
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Trump appeared on Fox & Friends over the weekend. He accepted the reality that he may be sentenced to time behind bars. However, his enthusiasm is not something he expects his devoted supporters to share. “I’m not sure the public would stand for it,” Trump said. “I think it’d be tough for the public to take. At a certain point, there’s a breaking point.”

It would be unexpected if Trump received prison time for a class E felony with no past criminal record. His stature as a main political figurehead in the country could also come into play, as it’s thought that there could be civil unrest if Trump is sentenced to prison. Either way, Trump’s legal team will appeal the verdict and that can take months to sort out as well.

In normal cases, 34 guilty verdicts would end someone’s political career. However, Trump is still the favorite to win in November.


Joe Biden’s Response to Trump Conviction

The perfect parlay for Biden last week would have been a guilty Trump verdict and a public endorsement from Taylor Swift when Travis Kelce’s Chiefs visited the White House on Friday. Biden got the Trump verdict he needed but no dice on Swift, who was not in attendance.

However, Biden does have to choose his words wisely about Trump and his base. He can see the poll numbers, the election odds, and understand that this verdict is not the end for Trump. If anything, he is getting more donations from outraged supporters who think a politically charged miscarriage of justice was carried out in New York.

At the end of a press conference last Friday, Biden was asked by a reporter about what he thinks of Trump blaming Biden directly for being a “political prisoner.” Biden stopped to hear the question, turned to the crowd, and offered a smile. He then said nothing and continued walking away.

U.S. President Joe Biden
U.S. President Joe Biden pauses to react to a reporter’s question as he leaves the State Dining Room at the White House on May 31, 2024 in Washington, DC. Biden announced a proposed ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and also briefly spoke about former President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in his hush-money trial in a New York court one day earlier. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/AFP

Biden Campaign Expected to Go All-in On “Convicted Felon” Ads

While the Democrats cannot make this case the central argument against a Trump election win in November, it would be foolish not to expect a heavy lean-in with it when their attack ads air soon. Trump is running as a twice impeached convicted felon who also was ordered in recent civil suits to pay a woman, E. Jean Carroll, over $88 million for her claim of sexual assault and defamation.

It is an election that would be a slam dunk for Biden and the Democrats in another universe, but that is not the case as things currently stand.

Biden’s age is a major turnoff to most voters, even Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris is a turnoff to many voters, including Democrats who dismissively called her a “cop” when she tried to run in 2020. Biden’s support for Israel is a turnoff to progressive voters –most of which support Palestine in that conflict. This progressive demographic also includes many potential young voters that Biden needs in November. Even the minority voters have been trending towards the Republicans in this election cycle.

Surely, addressing legal matters concerning Trump is an important aspect of ensuring accountability. However, unless it was for his actions on January 6th or potentially interfering with the election in Georgia, this hush money trial was likely never going to sway people away from Trump.


Debate Season

Donald Trump and Joe Biden are 2 weeks away from their 1st presidential debate of the 2024 election season. It will give voters an early opportunity to see the geriatric candidates square off once again in a rematch from the 2020 election.

It continues to be the rematch few seemingly want, but we are now fewer than 5 months away from voting on it in November. Despite his recent guilty verdict for 34 felonies in Manhattan, Trump remains a betting favorite at top-rated sportsbooks. With Biden running out of time to get his approval rating up, he faces an uphill battle in securing his reelection bid. The United States has not had back-to-back single-term presidents, excluding those who took office by means other than an election win, since Benjamin Harrison and Grover Cleveland in the late 1800s.

Let’s look at the updated election odds and what the candidates have been up to.


Winning Party Dilemma

Despite his lead, the winning party market is less favorable to Trump and the Republicans. In that market, they have -130 odds to win in November while the Democrats are at +100. This still assumes the candidates could be someone other than Trump and Biden, though that looks very unlikely at this point. There is still a noticeable shift in the odds at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), which used to be the sportsbook that was more favorable to Trump. But he is only -130 there, which is interesting since Biden is listed with +150 odds, which is even lower than BetOnline despite the Trump number also being less favorable.

Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. does not fare any better than +2000 odds, and he’s the best 3rd-party candidate this election is going to muster. Michelle Obama even still has +2000 odds at Bovada despite her camp saying in March that she had no plans to run for president on the Democratic ticket.

However, you can also vote on the winner of the popular vote, and Joe Biden is favored with -275 odds for that at BetOnline. Trump has +225 odds, which is only a 30.8% chance of winning. The Democratic candidate has won 7-of-8 popular votes since the 1992 election. Only George W. Bush in 2004 was able to win the popular vote as a Republican in that time.

In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by more than 7 million votes over Trump. Meanwhile, in 2016, Trump set a record when he lost the popular vote by 2,868,686 votes, the biggest margin ever for someone who still won the election.

Biden is a fairly safe bet to win the popular vote in November. But the electoral college is the system that continues making things difficult on the Democrats.


Biden’s Approval Rating

According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s approval rating is just 37.7%. This is potentially awful news, as a sitting president’s approval rating in late June is usually a great predictor of how their reelection bid will go in November. Since 1948, incumbent presidents with an approval rating under 46% at the end of June are 1-4 in the next election. Only Harry S. Truman was able to win in 1948 at 40%, and that is considered one of the biggest upsets in U.S. presidential election history.

At least that leaves some precedent for what would be a Biden upset at this point, but 1948 was a long time ago.

Biden continues dealing with the conflict in Israel. His proposed plan for a ceasefire was reportedly rejected by Israel, then also rejected by Hamas, as they continue to fight over the hostages in Gaza who have been detained since October. If Biden could be at the center of peace negotiations in that conflict before November, that could give him a boost in rating and election odds.