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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Betting Odds: Trump’s Lead Grows Following Shooting at P.A. Rally

Trump at P.A. Rally

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If it looks to you like Donald Trump is a lock to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, you’re not alone. Even some top Democrats have thrown their hands up in helplessness after Trump was grazed in the right ear this past Saturday by the bullet of a would-be assassin, leading to a perfect photo-op for the former president that was straight out of Bob Roberts.

The politics odds have certainly moved in Trump’s favor. His chances of regaining the presidency were already on the march before Saturday’s events, moving from -175 to -185 at Bovada; after the shooting, Trump rocketed to -300 before settling back down to -280.

Following his appearance Monday during Day One of the Republican National Convention, Trump is once again the -300 favorite as we go to press. And there’s every chance his election odds will improve once he speaks at the RNC this Thursday, when he’s scheduled to accept his party’s nomination.

If it all seems too good to be true for Trump supporters, it probably is. The U.S. election betting market moved dramatically this weekend despite the lack of any polling that would indicate whether Saturday’s events have actually changed the minds of voters, and to what degree. It’s almost certain that the Democratic Party has gained betting value since the shooting – but has Joe Biden already squandered it?

Bookmakers Review analyzes the betting odds released by election betting sites on the upcoming 2024 election. 

U.S. Election Odds - Next President

In the hours following the P.A. rally shooting, online sportsbooks have again adjusted the betting odds market. BetOnline increased the odds on Donald Trump winning the Presidency from -175 to -300.

  • Donald Trump, former President (-300)
  • Kamala Harris, Vice President (+650)
  • Joe Biden, President (+550)
  • Gavin Newsom, Governor of California (+4000)

Publisher’s Note: The odds referenced in this article may have changed since publication. The odds table above shows real-time prices.

Presidential Election Odds Timeline

Presidential Election Odds timeline

If you’ve been closely monitoring the Presidential odds market, you may have suffered whiplash from watching all of the movement on Vice President Kamala Harris.

  • Vice President Harris has traded as low as +350 on July 3 to as high as +1000.
  • President Joe Biden meanwhile has seen similar ups and downs after a recent unforgiving news cycle following his debate performance; trading from +275 to begin July, as high as +1100 on July 3, and has settled back down at +350.

Logically, it always made sense for the Vice President to replace the President on the party ticket. But for years, Harris has seemingly never been the “chosen one” as Biden’s successor. Her favorability rating was worse than Biden’s for much of this administration. Her biggest responsibility as VP was to fix the border, which has been one of the biggest issues for Democrats in this election.

Feelings towards Harris can change quickly with the Democrats running out of time and options after Biden’s poor debate performance where he stumbled over his words, sounded weak, and did not attack Trump on the issues with the confidence and strength the nation wanted to see.

Will Kamala Harris Replace Joe Biden?

That’s the other major betting story in the wake of Saturday’s shooting. The favorite for who will be the Democratic nominee has flipped from Biden to Vice President Kamala Harris and back again multiple times now, based almost entirely on knee-jerk reactions and hearsay.

At press time, the pendulum has swung back towards Biden. With many leading Democrats assuming that their window for subbing in Harris was closed shut by the shooting, Biden is now the –280 favorite to take on Trump this November, with Harris also –280 to be the vice presidential nominee.

Is this real life? Although polls and pundits assume that we’re locked in for another Trump vs. Biden election, senior Democrats are reportedly ramping up their efforts to make the change at the top of their ticket – while also paving the way for Biden to be nominated at next week’s Democratic convention should those efforts fail.

The latest salvo of note comes from California Representative Adam Schiff. According to The New York Times, Schiff told donors during a private meeting Saturday in East Hampton, New York that the Democrats will get taken to the woodshed this November if Biden remains their nominee. “We may very well lose the Senate and lose our chance to take back the House,” Schiff said.

Biden Refers to Ukraine President as Putin

Biden gaffe NATO

The hits keep on coming for Joe Biden. In a remarkable gaffe at last week’s NATO Summit, President Biden introduced Ukraine’s President  Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “President Putin”, shocking the audience and causing second-hand embarrassment to all who heard the flub.

Biden is now +350 to win re-election, while VP Kamala Harris is again trading shorter than the Commander-in-Chief at +1000 according to the latest odds as BetOnline.

U.S. Election Polls and Betting Odds Advantage

The below table compares the poll and odds advantage from four years ago to this year’s election.

Month Poll advantage 2020 Poll advantage 2024 Odds Advantage 2020 Odds Advantage 2024
January Biden +6 Biden +4 Trump -113 (53.05%) Trump +100 (50%)
February Biden +5 Biden +5 Trump -175 (63.64%) Trump -104 (51.2%)
March Biden +6 Trump +3 Trump -113 (53.05%) Trump -117 (54.8%)
April Biden +7 Not available Trump -129 (56.33%) Not available
May Biden +7 Not available Trump -103 (50.74%) Not available
June Biden +9 Not available Biden -163 (61.98%) Not available
July Biden +8 Not available Biden -178 (64.03%) Not available
August Biden +8 Not available Trump -116 (53.70%) Not available
September Biden +8 Not available Biden -133 (57.08%) Not available
October Biden +9 Not available Biden -194 (65.98%) Not available

Will Donald Trump Win the Presidency?

The path to victory becomes clearer every day. On Monday, Judge Aileen Cannon ruled to dismiss the “Classified Documents” case against Trump, saying that special counsel Jack Smith had been unconstitutionally appointed to the job.

It’s a decision that flies in the face of standard Justice Department operating procedures. It’s also not surprising, given that Cannon was nominated to the federal branch by Trump himself – possibly with this very outcome in mind.

Cannon’s decision will almost certainly be appealed, but for now, the case is closed, and the odds on whether Trump will be found guilty on any of the 40 counts he faced have been taken off the board at Bovada.

The VP Nomination

Meanwhile, Trump now has an official running mate in J.D. Vance, who overtook Doug Burgum late to win the Republican Veepstakes race. It’s an interesting choice, one that may have been made with 2028 in mind; Vance previously said that former Vice President Mike Pence shouldn’t have certified the results of the 2020 election, and endorsed Trump’s plan to submit an alternate slate of electors.

The problem with that strategy is that Trump has to win in 2024 first. Vice presidents don’t move the voting needle much, but Vance is more of a red-meat candidate than Burgum, appealing to the MAGA base rather than potential Trump voters on the margin.

That margin is about as small as it gets. Which is why Saturday’s shooting may prove to be a flash in the pan when it comes to Trump’s presidential odds; Ronald Reagan’s popularity was boosted for a few months in 1981 following the attempted assassination by John Hinckley Jr. but returned to previous levels afterward. We have a few months left to go before November 5, and countless more news cycles than there were 43 years ago.

What Does Nate Silver Say?

He may not be in charge of FiveThirtyEight anymore, but Silver is still out there projecting the 2024 election – and his latest Silver Bulletin forecast has Trump ahead in the polls, 42.3% to 39.2% for Biden and 9.0% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Even before the CNN debate, Silver had Trump’s chances of victory at 66%, echoing the projections at The Economist. That’s well ahead of the 52% chance FiveThirtyEight is giving Trump. In theory, if Silver and The Economist are correct, Trump has betting value as long as he doesn’t reach –200, but that’s only if you overlook that apparent 4-point inflation in Republican polling.

In the meantime, we’re at this strange moment in time where the Democrats appear to be turning towards Harris as their eventual leader – but not before the 2024 election. Now the question is whether all those major media outlets like The New York Times who are calling for Biden to step down will make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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