Best MLB Prop Bets Today
Our expert MLB props offer data-driven advice that can give you an edge daily. We analyze player and team performance data to offer betting advice for the top baseball games. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting out, our experts help give you an edge in your baseball picks.
- Trevor Williams’ favorite pitch is extremely low-quality
- Freddie Freeman’s form is incredible
- Freeman has a good track record against Williams
Who Starts for Washington?
Trevor Williams starts for the Nationals today.
Williams’ 4.32 ERA is poor but still actually somewhat flattering because it masks a 5.05 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which reflects just how poorly he is actually performing. As part of his “low” ERA, he has benefitted from yielding a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play), which means that he is due to give up more hits.
Williams’ pitch quality is indeed suggestive of a pitcher whom batters crush.
His arsenal lacks variety: he is especially dependent on his fastball, which he throws 48.8 percent of the time.
Despite the extent of his reliance on this pitch, it is a uniquely bad pitch. It ranks in the ninth percentile in velocity and in the 16th percentile in spin.
These numbers indicate that batters have an extremely easy time keeping up with and tracking the location of this pitch.
Indeed, it yields a .432 slugging rate but also a .499 xSLG (expected slugging rate).
This latter statistic indicates that his fastball is due to yield a higher slugging rate because batters are making great contact with it.
Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman
My favorite Dodgers’ batter to flourish today is Freddie Freeman.
Freeman shows incredible form: he carries a 17-game hitting streak into today’s contest. Most recently, he has three straight two-hit games and two straight two-double outings.
His outlook today is also solid because he bats .385 and slugs .462 in his career against Williams.
Freddie Freeman 2+ Total Bases From Hits -143 at BetOnline
- Paul Blackburn is a vulnerable pitcher who is just getting his feet wet today
- Blackburn suffers especially from low-pitch quality
- Matt Olson slugs uniquely well against Blackburn’s pitches from righties
Who Starts for Oakland?
Paul Blackburn starts for the A’s today. Blackburn is just another low-quality A’s pitcher, although he has yet to show how bad he is this season because he is making his season debut today.
Previously, Blackburn was on the 15-day injured list with a finger problem. This is a bad situation for him: whereas his opposing batters are well-seasoned by now, he is just getting his feet wet.
Although, his career 5.09 ERA suggests that he would struggle even if he were well-seasoned. Among other problems, he often struggles to generate soft contact and he is vulnerable to the long ball.
His low pitch quality makes him relatively easy for batters to crush.
For example, he relies extensively on a fastball. This pitch ranks in the 12th percentile in velocity and in the 31st percentile in spin rate. These numbers suggest that his fastball is eminently easy for batters to keep up with and track the location of.
Worrisomely, pitches that he throws more often have caused him greater problems.
Most prominently, he relied more frequently on his cutter last year, which yielded a .368 BA and .645 slugging rate. Blackburn is easy for batters to hit because he lacks pitches on which he can rely.
Atlanta’s Matt Olson
My favorite Braves’ batter to thrive today is Matt Olson. Olson’s outlook is positive today because he matches up well against Blackburn.
Specifically, he slugs .642 in 109 at-bats against Blackburn’s favorite pitches from righties.
Expect him to build off his three-hit, two-homer performance yesterday.
Matt Olson 2+ Total Bases From Hits +102 at BetOnline
- Michael Kopech has been vulnerable to strong competition
- Brandon Drury has had strong success lately
- Drury matches up well against Kopech
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Michael Kopech starts for the White Sox today.
Kopech’s last two starts give a false impression of his reliability. While he performed excellently, those starts came against the Royals and Guardians.
Both teams rank bottom five in runs per game. Thus, his last two starts do not indicate his readiness to succeed against strong competition.
The Angels, which rank ninth in runs per game, are strong competition. Before today, he has faced three teams that rank top-10 in runs per game: the Blue Jays, Rays, and Orioles.
He yielded an ERA over 5.00 in all three of those starts, totaling 12 earned runs and 18 hits in 15 innings. Kopech’s main problem is with locating his pitches.
He relies primarily on his fastball and slider. Heat maps indicate that he often leaves both pitches over the heart of the plate where batters tend to do greater damage.
Lack of Variety
Moreover, he lacks variety in his repertoire. Most noticeably, he throws his fastball a highly unusual 63.7 percent of the time.
This lack of variety renders him inflexible, impeding him from emphasizing different pitches when the matchup situation calls for it.
Angels’ Brandon Drury
My favorite Angels’ batter to perform well today is Brandon Drury.
Drury is a uniquely consistent performer. His success is also especially recent.
In the past week, he has a hit in four of six games, three multi-hit games, a home run, and four doubles.
His outlook today is particularly positive because he slugs .591 against Kopech’s favorite pitches from righties.
Brandon Drury 2+ Total Bases From Hits +100 at BetOnline
Guide to the Best MLB Props
Prop bets, short for proposition bets, are a type of bet where you wager on specific events or outcomes within a game. These bets are a fun and exciting way to engage with baseball beyond just the final score.
Our best MLB full-season, team and player prop picks are carefully curated by our team of expert handicappers to give you the best chance of success. Our picks cover a wide range of prop bets, from player statistics to in-game events. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a newcomer to the game, our picks will give you an edge when it comes to betting on MLB.
Take, for example, a prop bet on the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw. You could bet on whether he will strike out over or under a certain number of batters in a game. Or perhaps you’re more interested in a prop bet on the New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge, betting on whether he will hit a home run in a specific inning.
Our expert picks come with in-depth analysis and statistical data to help you make an informed decision. We take into account factors like player performance history, team dynamics and weather conditions to give you the best possible chance of winning.
Prop bets can be a great way to add a new dimension to your betting strategy. By focusing on specific events within a game, prop bets offer a unique opportunity to leverage your knowledge and expertise.
If you’re looking to elevate your baseball betting experience, look no further than MLB prop bets. And if you want the best chance of success, be sure to check out our expert picks. With our help, you’ll be well on your way to hitting it out of the park.
How Our Experts Determine Today’s Best MLB Props
So, how do our expert handicappers determine today’s best MLB props? It’s a combination of art and science, really. Our team of experts carefully analyzes a variety of factors to determine which prop bets are worth betting on.
First and foremost, we look at player and team performance history. How have the players in question performed in similar situations in the past? How has the team been playing as a whole? These are key questions that help us gauge the likelihood of a specific outcome.
We also take into account external factors like weather conditions, field dimensions and home-field advantage. These factors can have a significant impact on how a game plays out and can influence the success of certain prop bets.
Of course, we also rely on statistical analysis to inform our picks. We pour over data on everything from player statistics to team trends to identify patterns and trends that may be indicative of a specific outcome.
But our experts don’t just rely on data and analysis. We also factor in our own knowledge and expertise when making our picks. Our team includes seasoned bettors and baseball enthusiasts who bring their own unique perspectives and insights to the table.
Overall, our process is a holistic one, combining data-driven analysis with real-world experience and expertise. By using this approach, we’re able to identify the best MLB prop bets of the day and provide our readers with the insights they need to make informed betting decisions.
MLB Prop Betting Options
When it comes to baseball props, there are a variety of options available to bettors. In this section, we’ll break down the three main categories of MLB prop bets that are commonly offered by baseball betting sites.
MLB Player Prop Bets
MLB player props are wagers placed on individual player performances. For example, you can bet on whether a particular player will hit a home run or how many strikeouts a pitcher will record in a game. These types of bets allow you to focus on specific players and their performances, rather than the overall outcome of the game. The player prop market is often varied and you can commonly find exotic player prop wager options available from multiple betting sites.
MLB Team Prop Bets
MLB team props, on the other hand, are bets placed on team performances. Potential team prop betting options might include wagers on which team will score first, whether a team will score in a particular inning or how many runs a team will score in a game. Team props allow you to bet on the overall performance of a team, rather than individual players.
MLB Full-Season/Futures Prop Bets
MLB full-season/futures props are wagers placed on events that will happen throughout the entire season. For example, you might bet on which team will win the World Series or which player will win the American League MVP award. These types of bets require a longer-term view and a bit more knowledge of the sport as a whole.
Regularly Offered MLB Player Props
Common player prop options include Over/Under bets on a player’s total hits, runs and RBIs in a game, as well as whether a player will hit a home run or steal a base. Bettors can also wager on a player’s performance against a specific pitcher or team, such as whether a batter will hit a home run against a left-handed pitcher or if a pitcher will record a certain number of strikeouts against a particular team.
Here are some of the potential options for MLB player prop bet types that you can probably find being offered by your favorite online sportsbook:
- Pitcher Strikeouts: One of the most popular MLB player props, strikeout props are a type of player prop betting that involves wagering on how many strikeouts a pitcher will record in a game. For example, a pitcher prop could let you bet on whether or not Clayton Kershaw will record over or under 8.5 strikeouts in his next start.
- Home Runs: Another popular MLB player prop is the home run bet, which involves betting on whether or not a specific player will hit a home run in a game. For instance, you could bet on whether or not Mike Trout will hit a home run in his next game against the White Sox.
- Hits, Runs and RBI: This MLB player prop betting option involves betting on how many hits, runs or RBI a specific player will record in a game. For example, you could bet on whether or not Mookie Betts will record over or under 2.5 hits, runs or RBI in his next game against the San Diego Padres.
- Defensive Stats: In addition to offensive stats, MLB player props can also include defensive stats such as assists and putouts. For instance, you could bet on whether or not Nolan Arenado will record over or under 4.5 putouts in his next game against the Cubs.
- Awards and Achievements: Finally, some MLB player props focus on awards and achievements, such as the MVP award or the Cy Young award. For example, you could bet on whether or not Jacob deGrom will win the NL Cy Young award at the end of the season.
Common Types of MLB Team Props
In addition to player props, online sportsbooks also offer a variety of team props for MLB games. These props are typically centered around specific events or outcomes related to a team’s performance.
One common team prop is the over/under on total runs scored by a team in a game. For example, a sportsbook might set the over/under at 4.5 runs for the Boston Red Sox in a given game. Bettors can then place wagers on whether they think the Red Sox will score more or fewer than 4.5 runs.
Another popular team prop is the run line, which is similar to the point spread in other sports. The run line typically offers a more favorable payout for betting on the underdog. For example, if the New York Yankees are favored by baseball betting sites to beat the Washington Nationals by 1.5 runs, a bet on the Yankees would only pay out if they win by 2 or more runs. A bet on the Nationals would pay out if they win the game outright or lose by 1 run.
Online sportsbooks also offer props related to a team’s overall performance throughout the season, such as the over/under on the number of games a team will win or whether they will make the playoffs. These types of props require bettors to have a strong understanding of a team’s roster, strengths and weaknesses.
Popular Full-Season/Future MLB Props
Full-season MLB prop bets are long-term bets that cover an entire baseball season or a specific period, usually at the beginning of the season. These types of bets can be based on individual players or team performance. Some popular options for full-season MLB prop bets include the World Series champion, regular-season win totals, division winners and player awards such as the Cy Young or MVP.
For example, the New York Yankees are favored to win the American League East division, with odds of -125, while the Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites to win the National League West with odds of -300. Bettors can also wager on a team’s regular-season win totals, such as the over/under for the Houston Astros, which is currently set at 92.5 wins.
In terms of individual player props, bettors can place wagers on who they think will win the Cy Young or MVP awards at the end of the season. For instance, the favorite to win the American League MVP award could be Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout, with odds of +250, while New York Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom could be the favorite to win the NL Cy Young award with odds of +120.
When considering full-season/future MLB props, it’s essential to do thorough research and analysis before placing any bets with an online betting site. Factors such as injuries, schedule and overall team performance should be taken into account. Bettors should also consider the odds and the potential payout for each wager and make sure they are getting the best value for their money. This is why it is so important to keep up with both team news and player news and to shop around to get the best prop odds from sports betting sites before engaging in any online sports betting.
In conclusion, full-season/future MLB props offer bettors the opportunity to make long-term bets on individual players or team performance. These types of bets can provide excitement and anticipation throughout the entire season, but it’s essential to do research and analysis before placing any bets at any sports betting sites.
Using Our Expert Baseball Picks
If you’re new to MLB prop betting or you’re a savvy bettor that is just looking for some expert picks, we’ve got you covered. Here are some tips on how to use our best MLB prop picks to your online sports betting advantage:
First, make sure to understand the types of props we’re offering, whether it’s player props, team props or full-season/future props. Read our previous sections to get a good grasp of the different types of props and what they entail.
Next, take a look at the statistics and trends of the teams and players involved in the prop. Look at their recent performances, injury status and any other relevant factors that could affect the outcome of the prop.
Consider the odds and betting lines being offered by sports betting sites. Our picks are based on a combination of expert analysis and data-driven insights, but it’s important to remember that no bet is a sure thing.
Finally, keep up with the game as it unfolds. Watch the action, follow the scores and pay attention to any in-game developments that could impact the outcome of the prop.
FAQs – MLB Prop Picks & Best Props Today
What are MLB props?
MLB props are proposition bets on specific events or outcomes that can occur during a Major League Baseball game, such as which team will score first, how many strikeouts a pitcher will have or whether a certain player will hit a home run.
How do MLB prop bets differ from other types of sports bets?
MLB prop bets are unique because they focus on specific events or outcomes within a game, rather than the overall outcome. Unlike traditional bets like the moneyline or point spread, prop bets can offer a variety of options to bettors.
Is it possible to make a profit betting on MLB props?
Yes, it is possible for sports bettors to make a profit betting on MLB props with online betting sites. However, like any type of sports betting, it requires knowledge and research. It is important to have a solid understanding of the game and to make informed decisions.
What factors should I consider before making an MLB prop bet?
Before making an MLB prop bet, it’s important to consider factors such as the team’s recent performance, the starting pitchers, the weather conditions and any injuries or lineup changes. It is also important to research historical data and trends to make an informed decision.
Can I make MLB prop bets during the regular season and playoffs?
Yes, MLB prop bets are available throughout the regular season and for the playoff games. In fact, some sportsbooks may offer even more prop bets during the playoff games, as there are fewer games and more attention focused on each individual matchup.