Service Plays - Tuesday 8/24/21

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Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

Joined
May 12, 2021
Messages
1,218
MLB Sharp Action

7:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (77-48) at Philadelphia Phillies (63-61)
This 2008 World Series rematch features a pair of Interleague foes looking to solidify their postseason positioning. The Rays sit in first place atop the AL East but need to keep winning with the Yankees hot on their trail (only 4 games back). Meanwhile, the Phillies are 4.5-games back in the NL East and 5-games back of the 2nd Wild Card spot. In tonight's series opener, the Rays trot out righty Drew Rasmussen (1-0, 3.30 ERA) and the Phillies rebuttal with lefty Ranger Suarez (5-4, 1.47 ERA). This line opened at a virtual pick'em with both sides listed at roughly -105 odds. Respected money has pounced on the Rays, steaming Tampa Bay up to a -115 road favorite. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 250-158 (61%) this season. Tampa Bay just beat the White Sox 9-0. Road favorites off a big win of 5-runs or more are 81-43 (65%). Short road favorites -150 or less off a win are 139-94 (60%). Tampa Bay is 2-0 against Philadelphia this season. Pros have also hit this under, jumping on the under 9.5 with the hook and steaming the total down to 9.

7:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (43-81) at Cleveland Indians (61-61)
These non-division opponents are trending in opposite directions. The Rangers own the third worst record in MLB, ahead of only the Diamondbacks and Orioles. Texas is just 4-14 over their last 18 games. Meanwhile, the Indians just swept the Angels and are now 5-2 over their last seven games. Cleveland is eight games back of the second Wild Card spot in the AL. In tonight's series opener, Texas hands the ball to lefty Taylor Hearn (2-4, 3.97 ERA) and Cleveland counters with righty Eli Morgan (2-5, 5.80 ERA). This line opened with the Indians listed as a -150 home favorite and the Rangers a + 140 road dog. Pros have gotten down hard on the Tribe, steaming Cleveland up from -150 to -165. Non-division home favorites are 404-252 (62%) this season. Sweet spot non-division home favorites between -150 and -175 are 88-47 (65%), This is also a "schedule spot" advantage for Cleveland, who was off yesterday while the Rangers played (and lost 8-4) to the Red Sox. Rested favorites vs teams on a back-to-back are 58-35 (62%). Cleveland is 35-18 as a favorite this season. Texas is 34-69 as a dog. The Indians are 32-27 at home. The Rangers are 15-47 on the road.

8:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (69-57) at Milwaukee Brewers (76-49)
Both of these NL Central rivals enter on hot streaks, having gone 7-3 over their last ten games. The first place Brewers just took two of three against the Nats while the Reds just swept the Marlins. Cincinnati trails Milwaukee by 7.5-games in the division but currently occupies the 2nd NL Wild Card spot, leading the Padres by one game. In tonight's series opener, Cincinnati sends out righty Tyler Mahle (10-4, 3.78 ERA) and Milwaukee starts ace righty Corbin Burnes (8-4, 2.13 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a -175 home favorite and the Reds a + 160 road dog. The public is somewhat split on who to back, yet we've seen the Brewers shoot up from -175 to -185. This signals some wiseguy money backing the home favorite Brew Crew. Big home favorites -150 or more coming off a day off are 54-31 (64%) this season. Home favorites off a win are 431-274 (61%). We could also be looking at a lower-scoring game in this one. The total is 7.5 and the public says "easy over" with such a low total. However, the line has remained frozen at 7.5 and the juice is trending under (-115).
 

Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

Joined
May 12, 2021
Messages
1,218
Martin Green

Ludogorets vs. Malmo (Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET)

Both teams to score -143 (one unit)
Ludogorets draw no bet -137 (half unit)
Ludogorets to win 2-1 +850 (half unit)

PSV Eindhoven vs. Benfica (Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET)

Both teams to score -137 (one unit)
Benfica +0.5 -125 (one unit)
 

Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

Joined
May 12, 2021
Messages
1,218
SportsLine Projection Model

Pick: Mariners +1.5 (-150)
The Mariners cover in 63 percent of simulations

Over-Under

Pick: Under 8.5
The model is projecting 7.7 total runs

Money Line

Pick: Athletics -153
The Athletics win in 63 percent of simulations

Projected final score: Athletics 4.2, Mariners 3.5
 

Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

Joined
May 12, 2021
Messages
1,218
Jeff Hochman

CHI. WHITE SOX @ TORONTO | 08/24 | 7:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -125
ANALYSIS: Toronto will start right-hander Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.52 ERA) on Tuesday. Obtained from the Twins last month, he has faced the White Sox three times this season, going 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA. In 20 career starts against the White Sox, he is 12-4 with a 2.91 ERA. More importantly, Berrios is 3-0 with a 0.35 ERA at Rogers Center since 2018. He's holding hitters to a .191 batting average there.
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
39,282
Insider Sports Report
D* Arizona (Bumgarner) -115 over Pittsburgh (Brubaker)
Range: +100 to -140
C* Cleveland (Morgan) -150 over Texas (Hearn)
Range: -135 to -175
C* Houston (Garcia) -1.5 runs -125 over Kansas City (Singer)
Range: -110 to -150

National Sports Service
D* L.A. Angels (Bundy) -1.5 runs +100 over Baltimore (Watkins)
C* Tampa Bay (Rasmussen) -110 over Philadelphia (Suarez)
C* Atlanta (Morton) -150 over N.Y. Yankees (Heaney)

Primetime Sports Picks
D Unit --> Houston (Garcia) -1.5 runs -125 over Kansas City (Singer)
C Unit --> Tampa Bay (Rasmussen) -110 over Philadelphia (Suarez)
C Unit --> N.Y. Mets (Megill) -115 over San Francisco (Long)

Top Rank Sports Picks
D★ Arizona (Bumgarner) -115 over Pittsburgh (Brubaker)
C★ Washington (Fedde)/Miami (Luzardo) OVER 8.5
 
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