Service Plays - Tuesday 8/24/21

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Dr. Chuck

J* MLB Mistake
SF Giants +104 (Action)
The Mets are back home after a pretty big win over the champs in Chavez Ravine on Sunday....to salvage a win in the 4 game series finishing the road trip...before a day off and back to business in Citi Field Tuesday night. Sadly for Rojas et al....they invite in for a series...the best team (yes better than LAD) in the Majors!
Tylor Megill will take the mound for the hometown Mets and make his second consecutive start against these Giants...and while he fared ok....there are some glaring holes I am pumped to take advantage. His exit velocity against the Giants was at a season-high while his fly ball rate was at a season-low! The Giants will feature a healthy normal lineup and a VMI of OVER +6 for the game....while also knowing each and every single night...the West makes them HAVE to compete. Gabe Kapler has proven himself to be a fantastic manager and leader and they continue to just flat out be FOR REAL!
Long is being called up from AAA to make a spot start and coming from the left side he will make for a miserable opening for the Mets. Baez is back but Lindor is still out and only 2 teams have slashed worse than the Mets against LHP the past 10 days:
-8.4/.206/30 for 10 days against LHP for NYM
The Giants have equal rest and the bullpen will be ready as Long is unlikely to go more than 3-4 innings....and of course a la SF in 2021... in the past 7 days they have the best bullpen in the majors!
2.77 FIP/3.43 xFIP in the 27.2 innings since 8/16 and will wreak havoc with all the other factors....which finally include...the Mets 'pen
.172 BABIP & 83% LOB rate last 7 days screaming for regression against the best team in baseball!
 

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Trace Adams

22nd Ever
2500♦ MLB Lock in 19 Years
The Pick: 2500♦ Winner on the Chicago White Sox (Cease) over the Toronto Blue Jays (Berrios)
 

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JM Sports

Game: (951) Arizona Diamondbacks at (952) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Aug 24 2021 7:05 PM EDT
Play Rating: C units
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -116 M Bumgarner (LHP), J Brubaker (RHP) Must Start
C unit Arizona Diamondbacks (-116) over Pittsburgh Pirates (Bumgarner/Brubaker) –
JT Brubaker may be the biggest key to this play, 4-13 on the year with a 5.49 ERA, but in the L15 games he is 1-11 with a 6.92 ERA, in the L7, 0-5 with a 9.09 ERA (allowing 33 ER in 32.2 IP), and in the last 3 games, his ERA is 12.86!! Brubaker is 2-8 @ NGT with a 5.69 ERA in 14 starts and since the All-Star Break, he has gone 0-4 with an 8.78 ERA in 6 starts. Playing behind Brubaker, Pittsburgh is, 3-16 in his L19 starts (including 1-15 when the line is > -120) and they have lost 8 straight games when Brubaker is matched-up vs. a LHP pitcher. Lefties have been a weakness for PIT TY, they are 1-12 vs. a LHP w/ ERA > 4.00 and the line is under 150, 2-13 in L15 as a D vs. LHP, they are 1-7 @ H vs. LHP and 1-10 in the L11 @ ARI. Arizona also has a stud on the mound in Bumgarner, even though he may be a few years removed from his prime, he hasn't allowed more then 2 runs in a start since June, and the Diamondbacks are 5-1 in his L6 starts.
 

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Strike Point Sports

C-Unit Play. Take #965 LA Angels (-130) over Baltimore (7:05 p.m. Tuesday, August 24)
The Orioles have lost 18 games in a row and I think a familiar face is going to send them to their 19th consecutive one. Dylan Bundy made 127 starts for Baltimore over 5 seasons, but he was jettisoned to Los Angeles after never living up to expectations. Bundy was great last season for the Angels, but he has struggled for most of this year until recently, as he has allowed 5 earned runs over his last three starts with Los Angeles winning two of those contests. Spenser Watkins will be on the mound for the Orioles and he has been dreadful over his last 5 starts allowing at least 4 earned runs in each contest. Watkins has taken the loss in each game and Baltimore has been outscored 41-13 over those matchups and I think the results are going to be similar in this game.
 

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Mitchell Newman

Underdog Shocker
Cincinnati Reds (Mahle) over the Milwaukee Brewers (Burnes).
Price: At 7:30 am eastern time, the Reds are +160.
 

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Matt Severance

FEATURED PICK
SEATTLE @ OAKLAND | 08/24 | 3:37 PM EDT
OAKLAND -145
ANALYSIS: The A’s have lost each of the last three games despite leading after seven innings. That's a first in team history where the A’s have led three straight entering the eighth and lost them all. The mini-slump has knocked Oakland out of the second wild-card spot in the AL so maybe some urgency here. The A's will get slugger Matt Chapman back after he missed Monday with a minor injury. Lefty pitcher Cole Irvin has a 3.13 and .236 opponents batting average over his last 10 starts. Seattle is last in MLB in batting average against lefties and third-from-last in OPS. M's starter Chris Flexen has a 4.92 road ERA (2.70 at home) and is 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in two career starts vs. Oakland.
 

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Gus Augustine

Interleague
Showdown of the Month
The Pick: New York Yankees
The Line: At 11:45 am eastern, the line is New York +125
 

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Chris Jordan

American League
Game of the Month
The Pick:Baltimore Orioles
The Line: At 8:40 am pacific, the number is Baltimore +110
 

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Al DeMarco

Pitching Mismatch of the Month
The Pick: Brewers Run Line
The Line: Brewers +115 at -1 1/2 Runs at 5:05 am pacific
 

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Pickswise Sports

MLB C* Best Bet - Angels -125

MLB ESPN Best Bet Total
Dodgers/Padres Under 9 (-114)
 

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Bob Balfe

7:10 PM EST
Rotation #955-956
Nationals/Marlins Over 8 runs
Fedde/Luzardo
The Nationals have been slumping, but they have a decent batting average against left handers and will be going against Jesus Luzardo who is an absolute walk machine. Luzardo has pitched 17 innings this year and has walked almost one guy per inning. Erick Fedde is not a top tier pitcher and I just can’t understand why Vegas would make this total so low with these two pitchers on the mound. Take the Over.
 

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Jack Winningham

Colorado Rockies -130 over the Chicago Cubs
LA Dodgers -133 over the San Diego Padres
 

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