Ranking The Undefeated NCAA FB Teams

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Ranking undefeated college football teams: Biggest questions​

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The party continues. Nobody wants to leave. At this point last year, we were down to just six unbeaten college football teams. This year, even with North Carolina suffering a shock upset against Virginia, we've still got nine. Of the 10 conferences in FBS, eight still have a blemish-free team atop the standings. That's strangely clean and orderly for this sport, but it could also give the College Football Playoff committee a pretty big headache if it remains the case for a few more weeks.

It probably won't, of course. According to SP+, none of the remaining unbeatens has a better than 38% chance of getting to 12-0, and on average, only 2.4 of the nine will get there. We always talk about nightmare scenarios for the committee, and the questions all tend to answer themselves by the time we get to the final rankings reveal.

Still, we're probably going to learn something interesting about the committee when the weekly rankings begin next week. Do they really look at things differently than the average college football pollster? Do they really take things like strength of schedule into account? Are they going to give Georgia the benefit of the doubt just like the pollsters are currently doing?

Assuming Georgia beats Florida for the sixth time in seven years this Saturday, the Dawgs will be unbeaten heading into the first cycle of CFP rankings. They will almost undoubtedly remain No. 1 in the AP and Coaches polls, and honestly, that makes sense -- they're the two-time defending national champions and they've won 40 of their last 41 games. But a playoff committee tasked with evaluating this year's performance against this year's schedule doesn't really have a case for making them No. 1. They've looked like the best team in the country once all season (against Kentucky). They rank sixth in my Resume SP+ rating, eighth in ESPN's Strength of Record and 17th in Game Control. They barely beat 3-4 Auburn.

Michigan has played an equally weak schedule but has very much looked the part. Ohio State and Florida State have been less dominant but have each scored a couple of lovely résumé-building wins. Oklahoma and Washington are somewhere in between from both dominance and résumé perspectives. Everyone has looked awesome at some point, but each team's Playoff portfolio is a bit different. How the committee ranks them a week from now will tell us quite a bit about what they really look for.

But that conversation's for next week. The nine unbeatens have to get there first, and on average SP+ projects about 1.7 losses for this week's Divine Nine. Here's how they rank after Week 8:

 

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9. Liberty Flames​

Last week's ranking: 11th

SP+ and FPI rankings: 51st and 61st



Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 35.3%

What they did in Week 8: defeated MTSU 42-35

Next big test (next game with SP+ win probability at 75% or lower): Week 9 at Western Kentucky (Tuesday)

Biggest remaining question: Will the defense ever find consistency? Conference USA's odd October television odyssey has given us plenty of chances to catch Jamey Chadwell's Flames. Their last three games have been on a Thursday, a Tuesday and a Tuesday, and they face a huge Tuesday night game against Western Kentucky this week, too, before switching back to Saturdays in November.

The weird schedule has produced some weird results. Liberty thumped Jacksonville State on the road -- impressive considering the Gamecocks' 6-2 overall record -- but sandwiched that performance with narrow home wins over 0-7 Sam Houston and 2-6 Middle Tennessee. And when the performance has been underwhelming, it's typically been the defense's fault. Liberty allowed 23.8 more points than projected (per SP+) in those two games, and now it faces maybe the two best non-Liberty offenses in Conference USA: WKU and Louisiana Tech.

For the season, LU's pass defense has produced excellent numbers: The Flames are 28th in QBR allowed, seventh in completion rate allowed and first in interception rate. But SHSU's Keegan Shoemaker and MTSU's Nicholas Vattiato combined to throw for 587 yards and six touchdowns (and, yes, three picks), and both WKU and Tech are even more dedicated to the pass. If there's a slip-up in the near future, a huge game from WKU's Austin Reed or Louisiana Tech's Jack Turner is the most likely cause.

 

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8. James Madison Dukes​

Last week's ranking: 10th

SP+ and FPI rankings: 41st and 52nd

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 22.7%

What they did in Week 8: defeated Marshall 20-9

Next big test: Week 10 at Georgia State

Biggest remaining question: Can the Dukes turn 3s into 7s? A 12-0 record is the one thing JMU has to play for this year after political attempts to get the Dukes eligible for the postseason and/or a Sun Belt title in their second FBS season failed. (Granted, JMU and Jacksonville State -- another FBS newcomer with a bowl-eligible record -- should just arrange to meet in a field in mid-December or something, but that's neither here nor there.) Still, going 12-0 in what is currently the best and deepest Group of Five conference would still be one hell of an accomplishment. And the biggest obstacle might be ... field goals.

JMU's defense has grown increasingly dominant of late. The Dukes have allowed just 14 points per game in Sun Belt play, and neither Georgia Southern's passing game nor explosive Marshall back Rasheen Ali could make a dent over the last two weeks. Including sack yardage -- a pretty significant figure, as JMU has made more of them (34) than anyone in the country, thanks in part to national leader Jalen Green (13) -- both Marshall and Troy actually ended up with negative rushing yardage.

The Dukes settled for three field goals in an eventual 16-14 win over Troy, however, and they managed just six points in their first three red zone trips against Marshall. That kept both games far closer than they should have been, and it was part of a trend. JMU has scored touchdowns on just 49% of its red zone trips in 2023, 118th in FBS. A lot of this stems from a terribly inefficient run game (they're 114th in rushing success rate), but a lot of upsets start when the favorite is coming up short near the goal line. JMU's got five more upsets to avoid.

 

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7. Air Force Falcons​

Last week's ranking: 9th

SP+ and FPI rankings: 35th and 47th

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 33.7%

What they did in Week 8: defeated Navy 17-6

Next big test: Week 13 at Boise State

Biggest remaining question: Can the dominance continue with a less dominant Zac Larrier? In last week's unbeatens ranking, I talked about just how impressive Larrier has been and how much of an upgrade he appears to have delivered over a very good, long-term starter in Haaziq Daniels. Then Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun announced that Larrier would miss a decent amount of time with injury.

And then he didn't. Larrier led a 17-6 win over Navy in Annapolis, rushing for very little but completing a 94-yard bomb to Dane Kinamon in the second quarter to pace a comfortable win. He threw for 151 yards on just five passes -- Navy quarterbacks threw for 102 yards on 29 -- and Air Force cruised.

The Falcons still just rushed for 137 yards, however. Service academy games are typically battles of attrition, with each team devastatingly familiar with the other's option ways and yards hard to come by. But it was still just the second time in 23 years that Air Force failed to top 150 yards on the ground against the Midshipmen. Was that a quirk or a sign that, with Larrier less than 100%, the Air Force ground game might stall out a bit? Granted, the Falcons might be able to win the Mountain West on defense alone at this point -- for the fourth straight year, they're currently in the defensive SP+ top 25 and have allowed more than 21 points just once all season -- but winning 13 in a row is hard if your run-based offense isn't keeping you on schedule. Larrier's been incredible, but we'll see if he can continue to keep the trains moving on time.

 

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6. Oklahoma Sooners​

Last week's ranking: 6th

SP+ and FPI rankings: 9th and 4th

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 26.3%

What they did in Week 8: defeated UCF 31-29

Next big test: Week 9 at Kansas

Biggest remaining question: The defense is still trustworthy ... right? We grew so conditioned to expect defensive glitches from Oklahoma that it felt strange not to see them anymore. And it felt almost right when they popped back up.

The Sooners' defense has been excellent in 2023. OU ranks 11th nationally in points allowed per drive, combining ultra-efficient run defense -- it's stopping 31% of rushes at or behind the line, the best stuff rate in the country -- with some of the nation's best red zone defense as well. The pass defense has been a little hit or miss, but if you're rendering opponents one-dimensional and then holding them to field goals when they manage to move the ball, you're probably in great shape. The Sooners' No. 23 defensive SP+ ranking would be their best since 2013.

Red zone defense ended up saving the Sooners on Saturday. UCF had to settle for three field goals during a mid-game run of five scores in five drives, and it meant that OU headed into the fourth quarter down only 23-17 instead of something worse.

A couple of nice, late drives from the offense and a late two-point stop salvaged a 31-29 win and kept a number of big miscues from proving too costly. In the second quarter alone, UCF ripped off a 54-yard run and passes of 23 and 86 yards, and in what was almost the game-tying drive in the final two minutes, the Knights completed a 39-yard pass to set up the TD. If this had happened to Georgia or some elite-for-years defense, we wouldn't have thought twice about it. But with Kansas' awesome offense awaiting OU in Lawrence this coming weekend, now would not be the time for old problems to become new again.

 

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5. Washington Huskies​

Last week's ranking: 3rd

SP+ and FPI rankings: 7th and 12th

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 16.9%

What they did in Week 8: defeated Arizona State 15-7

Next big test: Week 10 at USC

Biggest remaining question: What the heck was that? You can't always play your best game. That Washington had an off week against Arizona State after a marquee win over Oregon in Week 7 wasn't a surprise in itself. ASU's defense has been improving rapidly in recent weeks, and starting a game with three turnovers in four drives is pretty fluky.

It was still alarming, though. Since peaking at a transcendent 9.9 against Michigan State, Washington's yards per play output has fallen for four consecutive games, to 8.5 against Cal, 7.2 against Arizona, 6.8 against Oregon and 5.2 on Saturday. Most of those numbers remain firmly in the "awesome" category, but even after the burst of turnovers, Washington still only managed three field goals, along with two punts and another turnover, in its final six drives. If this were against the best ASU defense of all time, you would still hope to see more than nine offensive points from what seemed not too long ago to be the best offense in the country.

Washington did win, though. The defense, forced to save an offense that has driven so much of the Huskies' recent success, did so. ASU averaged only 4.4 yards per play, and when the Sun Devils were driving for a late score to expand a 7-6 lead, Mishael Powell instead took an interception 89 yards for the go-ahead touchdown. If this was a bottoming out for offense, and it finds its rhythm again, all's forgiven. But Washington isn't sniffing 12-0 without getting its fastball back. The stretch run -- at USC, Utah, at Oregon State, Wazzu over the last four games -- is too difficult.

 

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4. Florida State Seminoles​

Last week's ranking: 7th

SP+ and FPI rankings: 11th and sixth

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 25.7%

What they did in Week 8: def. No. 16 Duke 38-20

Next big test: Week 11 vs. Miami

Biggest remaining question: Can the Noles stop saving so much work for late in the game? Here are the SP+ strength of schedule rankings for the nine remaining unbeatens: Liberty 133rd, Air Force 130th, JMU 114th, Michigan 110th, Georgia 93rd, Washington 50th, Oklahoma 40th, Ohio State 28th, Florida State 23rd. FSU has beaten three current SP+ top-30 opponents. Ohio State's the only other team with more than one. (Michigan and the three G5 schools: zero.) There is no doubting the Noles' credentials. They have proven both resilient and mature in taking blows from good teams and responding with enough late flurries to win.

Relying on late flurries eventually ends in disappointment, however. The best way to run the table is to unleash those flurries much earlier. Against LSU, the Noles trailed 17-14 at halftime and needed a couple of huge fourth-down stops to avoid an even bigger deficit. Against Clemson, they fell behind 10-0 in the second quarter and didn't lead until overtime. Clemson had a 29-yard field goal to take the lead with 1:45 left and missed it.

Against Duke on Saturday, the Noles were on the ropes again. They trailed 20-17 in the third quarter, and the Blue Devils were driving to go up two scores before quarterback Riley Leonard re-aggravated an ankle injury. Backup Henry Belin IV came in, and the Noles made another key fourth-down stop, then hit the gas, outscoring their short-handed opponents 21-0 in the fourth quarter.

SP+ has been an FSU skeptic all season -- the Noles are still only 11th overall -- and while their late surges mean they typically exceed projections, the fact that they give themselves late work to do remains a red flag. Title teams tend to be the ones that look the part before they absolutely have to.

 

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3. Georgia Bulldogs​

Last week's ranking: 4th

SP+ and FPI rankings: 2nd and 8th

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 26.4%

What they did in Week 8: idle

Next big test: Week 10 vs. Missouri

Biggest remaining question: Same as Florida State's. Hey, speaking of teams that only look the part when they have to ...

I don't want to overstate Georgia's supposed struggles. The Bulldogs rank fifth in points per possession and ninth in points allowed. They force more than twice as many three-and-outs (40%) as they suffer (18%). The offense creates the smallest third downs in the country and allows almost no negative plays, and the defense is among the surest tackling units around. This is a sound team that avoids mistakes and knows it will eventually make the plays it needs to. Twenty-four wins in a row provide the ultimate proof of concept.

Still, slow starts have been even more of an annoyance for the Dawgs than for FSU. Aside from the Kentucky game, which featured a nearly perfect start, Georgia has otherwise scored as many first-quarter points (24) as it's allowed this year despite playing against a lackluster schedule. Its dominance of Kentucky was a reminder of what Georgia can do, but it followed a near-loss to Auburn and came only weeks after it needed a second-half rally to beat South Carolina. According to SP+, Auburn and South Carolina are the 11th- and 13th-best teams in the SEC.

Over the next four weeks, Georgia will play rival Florida, then face the best three teams on its 2023 schedule per SP+: Missouri (18th), Ole Miss (21st) and Tennessee (16th). It will likely be facing this run of opponents without all-world tight end and ultimate security blanket Brock Bowers, too. It will be comfortable favorites against each, and justifiably so -- this is still the two-time defending national champ -- but these teams are more capable of properly punishing slow starts than anyone the Dawgs have played in 2023. They aren't going to play themselves into trouble at some point again, are they?

 

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2. Ohio State Buckeyes​

Last week's ranking: 2nd

SP+ and FPI rankings: 4th and 1st

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 14.0%

What they did in Week 8: defeated No. 7 Penn State 20-12

Next big test: Week 9 at Wisconsin

Biggest remaining question: What's this offense's ceiling? Finding you don't trust the Ohio State offense feels almost as strange as finding you do trust the Buckeyes' defense. But that's where we are in 2023. Ohio State ranks third in points allowed per drive and fifth in defensive SP+. Second-year coordinator Jim Knowles seems to have patched all the holes that formed in this unit late in 2022, and he's masterfully pairing excellent big-play prevention (five plays of 30-plus yards allowed, tied for the second-fewest in FBS) with moments of aggression. OSU forces three-and-outs 39% of the time (13th) and ranks second in yards allowed per dropback (4.2). That's a ferocious combination.

Ohio State also ranks just 29th in points per drive on offense, however, and 16th in offensive SP+. That's great for most schools, but not for one that has averaged an offensive SP+ ranking of 3.8 over the last seven years. Once again Saturday, in a 20-12 win over Penn State, star receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. did major damage (16 targets, 11 catches, 162 yards) for an otherwise frustrating unit. Plays not involving Harrison averaged just 3.4 yards, and despite another dominant defensive showing, OSU had to recover a late onside kick to officially put the game away.

To be sure, injuries have been an issue. Star running back TreVeyon Henderson has missed the last three games, receiver Emeka Egbuka the last two. But the Buckeyes got huge plays from both players against Notre Dame and still only scored 17 points. Being able to win ugly, as the Buckeyes have against Indiana, Notre Dame and Penn State this year, is a nice skill. But it's nicer to play to your talent levels and blow teams away. If or when the Ohio State offense is fully operational, can the Buckeyes ignite and give their defense a little less work to do?

 

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1. Michigan Wolverines​

Last week's ranking: 1st

SP+ and FPI rankings: 1st and 2nd

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 37.9%

What they did in Week 8: defeated Michigan State 49-0

Next big test: Week 11 at Penn State

Biggest remaining question: Is it possible to forget how to handle adversity? The proper schedule, like a concert setlist, has a distinctive ebb and flow to it. I've always felt it's good to ease into the season, eating a cupcake or two early on to get some of your younger players' feet wet and figure out which of the newbies you can count on. You want one of your stiffer tests to come late in September or early in October so there's nice ramping up of intensity. And it's hard to beat having your absolute stiffest test at the end of the year, when the stakes and anticipation levels are at their highest.

Michigan's 2023 schedule ... has not been a perfect setlist. It's light on challenges overall thanks to a hole in nonconference scheduling, but even worse, it's also backloaded. There are only three top-40 opponents, and they all pop up in the last three weeks of the regular season.


Against eight opponents all ranked 49th or worse in SP+, Michigan has won by an average score of 41-6. No one's stayed within even 24 points. Two-thirds of the way through the season, quarterback J.J. McCarthy has thrown four fourth-quarter passes, and running back Blake Corum has four fourth-quarter carries.

That's absurd, and it tells us two things. First, Michigan is outstanding. Everyone else has looked mediocre against mediocre opposition at some point -- Georgia barely beat Auburn, Ohio State took forever to put away Indiana, Florida State barely beat Boston College and so on -- but Michigan, which moved to first in SP+ after Week 4, continues to exceed projections and treat mediocre opponents like awful ones.

It also tells us that we still don't know how Michigan handles adversity. The last time the Wolverines faced it was 2022, and they didn't really ace their last tests in that regard. They needed a late field goal to beat a one-dimensional Illinois, and in maybe the best game of 2022, they couldn't overcome a barrage of TCU big plays in a CFP semifinal upset. This is an incredible team, but the schedule hasn't done the Wolverines any favors. If they have some unforeseen kinks to work out against elite teams, they won't know it until it's too late.