NBA Play-in/Playoff Thread

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piratealew

piratealew

Joined
Feb 20, 2024
Messages
1,406
731-641 YTD

Hit my #1 play Sunday and last few days of NBA, nice run to end the season. With Monk and Heuter out, Kings are a much different team. Believe the experienced guys for Warriors come to play tonight. Lakers are owned by nuggets and I doubt they want to win and face them in first round. Lakers have been smashing Pels yet just the next day after getting trampled in the last game, books make them a favorite. Something may be up and AD is questionable as expected and could sit out, depending on what lakers want to do. I'll take my chances Pels get some revenge today. Given recent H2H matchups, Fakers look way too obvious but we know from years of dealing with NBA, the opposite occurs a lot.

⭐️Warriors-2-120

Pelicans ML-102

⭐️Fakers/Pelicans Over 223

Also like the GSW/Sactown Over but have less an edge. May play later.
 

piratealew

piratealew

Joined
Feb 20, 2024
Messages
1,406
No Zion? Should be No Problem. Pels did beat these Kings 133-100 earlier without Zion (Kings had Heuter and Monk this game too). Interesting tidbits about Bulls/Heat-Bulls are 6-2 ATS last 8 games against Miami, (4-1 ATS last 5 in Miami), 5-5 SU L10, and this was with Playoff (Hemi) Butler . Total has gone over 5 of last 5 Bulls game and 10 of last 11 Heat games. The stats and matchups bear these stats out as I have Pels-6. Bulls PK-1, with a total projected in the 215-220 range.

⭐️Pelicans+2-112
⭐️Chicago/Miami Over 205-120
Bulls+2.5-115
 

piratealew

piratealew

Joined
Feb 20, 2024
Messages
1,406
in the 2nd game I've liked the over a bit more than the first but dont like doubling up too much on same game, however none of the 5 games played between these 2 this year had less than 211 points. They averaged just over 237 in their H2H games this year. Kings defense is abysmal and won't be able to tamper the scoring like most post-season able teams, after all they are 21st in defensive efficiency giving up 113.3 points per 100 possessions. These are also 2 high profile offenses, both ranking in the top 15 in the NBA with Pelicans ranked 8th in offense, scoring 115 per 100 possessions, and KIngs are 13th (113.8 pts per).

⭐️Kings/Pelicans Over 210-118
 

piratealew

piratealew

Joined
Feb 20, 2024
Messages
1,406
Hit my #1 play on Wolves last night while losing all the Bulls bets, and over and pushed the Pels total. Good to win the biggest play of the night to salvage something. Here's the full card for sat, forgot to post the earlier plays like i did elsewhere:

⭐️Knicks-2-120
⭐️Twolves ML-118
⭐️Lakers/Nuggets Over 224-120
Magic+5
Lakers+7.5-115
Philly/New York Over 209
 

piratealew

piratealew

Joined
Feb 20, 2024
Messages
1,406
Just heard from a friend in Philly that sports talk radio in Philly is reporting Embiid AND Maxey are playing tonight. Figured they would but wanted some news. All overs tonight, hit the OKC under last night 1 push on boston total and lost indy over yesterday, more unders in game 1 with nerves and tighter defense throughout. Scoring should pick up tonight.

⭐️Nuggets-7-105
⭐️Orlando/Cleveland Over 202-115
⭐️Philly/NY Over 204
Magic+6-118
Philly+6.5-115
LA/Denver Over 223-115
 

piratealew

piratealew

Joined
Feb 20, 2024
Messages
1,406
Of course Suggs gets hurt in 1st half and magic look lost on Def without him, now they cant even score. at least philly looking good-figured they'd come out guns blazing, not wanting to go down 0-2.

going to play the 2nd half

76ers ML-115 (Live 2nd half)
 

piratealew

piratealew

Joined
Feb 20, 2024
Messages
1,406
Have to thank denver for getting down 20 and the ability to keep live betting which saved my Monday. right after i posted the above they went down 20 so and was offered +6, seemed like a no-brainer (was told in my tg group i was wasting money and should bet Fakers! ha!) at least it worked out unlike Philly who lost it at the end, missing that live bet but hit the game spread easy and the over by a point. Stupidly i had Cavs marked down and talked myself out of it and onto Magic late in the day, need to go back to just trusting my gut and not changing.

⭐️Minnesota Twolves ML-135
⭐️Milwaukee Bucks ML-110
Clippers+3-120
Pacers/Bucks UNDER 224-115
Phx/Minnesota OVER 211
 
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