Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Chan Sung Jung vs. Dan Ige
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It's hard to follow an epic Pay-Per-View card like UFC 263, but sometimes a good old fashioned scrap between top 10 featherweights is a fitting follow-up. And from a betting perspective, it doesn't get much closer than this week's main event.
Chan Sung Jung and Dan Ige are basically a true pick 'em, and either could close as a mild betting favorite on fight night. Whoever wins will stay in the division's title picture, but the fans should all be winners if these two fight to their preferred style and potential.
Prelims start at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+ and the main card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Featherweight main event: No. 4 Chan Sung Jung (+105) vs. No. 8 Dan Ige (-125)
Tale Of The Tape
|CHAN SUNG JUNG||DAN IGE|
|Last fight weight class||Featherweight||Featherweight|
|Stand-up striking offense|
|Total knockdown ratio (scored:received)||5:4||3:1|
|Distance knockdown rate||2.8%||2.7%|
|Head jab accuracy||26%||25%|
|Head power accuracy||35%||34%|
|Total stand-up strike ratio||1.0||0.9|
|Total head strike defense||67%||69%|
|Distance knockdown defense ("Chin")||97%||99%|
|Wrestling and grappling|
|TD attempts per min standing/clinch||0.12||0.55|
|Advances per takedown/top control||2.2||1.4|
|Opponent takedown attempts||32||14|
|Share of total ground time in control||52%||45%|
|Submission attempts per trip to ground||0.31||0.07|
The metrics of power, precision and pace are all almost identical, as is their defensive striking avoidance. The only real difference defensively is the cumulative damage (and older age) of Jung, compared to the younger, fresher Ige. The tradeoff is that Jung has faced historically better opponents, but he arguably has already reached his pinnacle in the sport, compared to Ige, who is still climbing the ladder of both skill and experience.
If the fight hits the mat, Ige has the more aggressive wrestling, but Jung has the slicker submissions. It's going to be close regardless, and small moments could decide each round.
It's close to a 'dog or pass scenario, on the assumption that Ige is the lesser known, therefore lesser supported mild underdog. He's still playable at break even pricing, but watch the odds closely and hunt for a plus money return if possible.
E+ recommends: Money line play on Ige at even or plus money.
Best bets elsewhere on the cardVeteran brawler Matt Brown (+145) will be the underdog against Dhiego Lima (-170) in what could be a violent affair. Both men have taken their lumps in the Octagon (absorbing 13 knockdowns received between them), but few have done it for as long as Brown.
Still, the guy is tough as nails and remains capable of rebounding mid-fight to deliver violence of his own. Offensively, he's slightly more dangerous, but also less resilient. At plus money, we're hoping veteran experience, and historically harder strength of schedule, combine for the upset against someone who is unlikely to utilize wrestling to take advantage of one of Brown's key weaknesses.
E+ recommends: Money line play on Brown at plus money. Fight does not go the distance.
The main card will host one rematch at bantamweight when Marlon Vera (-200) takes on Davey Grant (+170). Grant won by decision in their first outing at featherweight five years ago. But since then, Vera has been far more active, coming into his own as a finisher. Vera is a true dual-threat fighter who can end fights on the feet or by submission.
Vera's trouble comes against top talent when he doesn't get the finish, as happened most recently against former champion Jose Aldo. But losing a decision to a legend is hardly a sharp criticism, and Grant has yet to earn that level of respect in the division.
Now favored in the rematch, Vera looks to have evolved his skillset moreso than Grant by competing more than twice as often since their first meeting. Vera makes a reliable betting favorite.
E+ recommends: Money line lean on Vera. Small prop on Vera inside the distance, or Vera by submission at significant plus money.