correct me if i'm wrong.
early & late movement metric might be a better strategy to go off of.
I'm not using a market movement strategy here, I'm getting in before the movement, sometimes grabbing what may move into range, and sometimes, I'm picking up a line after some steam, not to chase the steam, but because that steam pushed it into a qualifying zone for the UPSET Basket. It's the rare instance where I am taking a worse number when the better number doesn't even trigger.
Here's the criteria of the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket.
This was written 8-30-18 when I first started posting the basket to track...
I have another basket to introduce. The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket will have an initial screen of competitive underdogs, primarily on the road. This is a moneyline basket of bets that uses a stacking percentages forecast along with market analyses to determine the appropriate play.
There could be quite a few plays in this basket as well. It will be tracked and again it can be used as a gauge but has had a very decent ROI over the last few years by itself. There will not be large underdogs in this basket as one of the factors will be competitive underdogs. If a competitive underdog is mispriced and is large upset in the market, it won’t fall into this basket, even though it may be a good bet.
Just like the last basket…
While each bet is, of course, one unit, the plan is to track this basket, it can be a gauge, and determine a time to for the Total Return Fund to take a position.
Early season stacking forecasts should not do as well as when the market matures but evidence over the years shows the difference isn’t enough to overcome the market analysis of the early season.
When I talk about the Total Return Fund taking a position I'm talking about buying in and out of this basket with the oscillations. A very nuanced form of trading and sometimes risky.
We have been on a downturn, let's see how this last week pans out.
Some lines have moved away from the Basket buys this week, others towards and dogs are now favorites, creating a ton of value and even equity against the market. Because of the stacking percentages forecast being used, I do not sell back equity for guaranteed profit when bought into this Fund.
I buy more of a position if a game is candidate for that, tracking that as a different strategy.
But often times it's an UPSET Basket play that becomes a candidate for that open/close position trading.