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Any Decisions Yet NCAA Tonight?

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KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,258
correct me if i'm wrong.
early & late movement metric might be a better strategy to go off of.

I'm not using a market movement strategy here, I'm getting in before the movement, sometimes grabbing what may move into range, and sometimes, I'm picking up a line after some steam, not to chase the steam, but because that steam pushed it into a qualifying zone for the UPSET Basket. It's the rare instance where I am taking a worse number when the better number doesn't even trigger.

Here's the criteria of the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket.

This was written 8-30-18 when I first started posting the basket to track...

I have another basket to introduce. The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket will have an initial screen of competitive underdogs, primarily on the road. This is a moneyline basket of bets that uses a stacking percentages forecast along with market analyses to determine the appropriate play.

There could be quite a few plays in this basket as well. It will be tracked and again it can be used as a gauge but has had a very decent ROI over the last few years by itself. There will not be large underdogs in this basket as one of the factors will be competitive underdogs. If a competitive underdog is mispriced and is large upset in the market, it won’t fall into this basket, even though it may be a good bet.

Just like the last basket…

While each bet is, of course, one unit, the plan is to track this basket, it can be a gauge, and determine a time to for the Total Return Fund to take a position.

Early season stacking forecasts should not do as well as when the market matures but evidence over the years shows the difference isn’t enough to overcome the market analysis of the early season.

When I talk about the Total Return Fund taking a position I'm talking about buying in and out of this basket with the oscillations. A very nuanced form of trading and sometimes risky.

We have been on a downturn, let's see how this last week pans out.

Some lines have moved away from the Basket buys this week, others towards and dogs are now favorites, creating a ton of value and even equity against the market. Because of the stacking percentages forecast being used, I do not sell back equity for guaranteed profit when bought into this Fund.

I buy more of a position if a game is candidate for that, tracking that as a different strategy.

But often times it's an UPSET Basket play that becomes a candidate for that open/close position trading.

:cheers:
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,258
Colorado/Utah line moving wiht Sanders declared out at QB.

This could trigger an NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund bet. I'm trying to finesse the right risk because I'm not a fan of this trigger. I tried to hit 23 but couldn't get in.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,258
Florida live ML

Besides, Fl St is good, QB or not.

Also, I forgot something...

come-closer-slap-d653qce1ia6ev495.gif
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,258
The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has picked up...

315​
2-Dec​
SMU +136

I will get to a more formal summary but know that the UPSET Basket definitely slid end of the season losing nearly -12 units over the last three weeks of posting.

:cheers:
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,258
Not many games next week
KVB see my new thread

I would have put Iowa State in that thread if you had made it yesterday. I almost started a thread But just decided to put it in three different places lol…

The answer must be Iowa St. tonight, at least against the spread.

+10 still good.

I believe it's Iowa St against the spread tonight and +10 is still a good buy.

Tell your flame bookie you want the points with Iowa St for the max.

Plays like that don’t come around every day, that’s for sure. Literally the last football day of regular season and a late game to boot.

Talk about the need for patience.

Be patient, I will honor the thread you made.

I will also try to be patient and only put the best of the best in there. When there’s a little more than just probability in the cards.
 
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