Best bet: 309 Nevada +24
Tiebreaker: 486 Arizona Cardinals +3 1/2
Writeup: For a ball control/option offense like Air Force they can play perfectly and still have a hard time scoring over 24 points, let alone winning by that much. They had 2 blowout wins in their first two games, but those were against a FCS team in Northern Iowa and against Colorado, a team that has taken the belt from Kansas as the undisputed worst power 5 team in college football.
Last week they were 16.5 point favorites against division rival Wyoming and lost by a field goal. Wyoming was by far their toughest opponent yet, and according to football outsiders' FEI rankings Nevada is nominally better than Wyoming. Like Wyoming, and unlike UNI and Colorado, Nevada is also highly accustomed to playing against Air Force's offense, which should prevent the breakdowns in defensive assignments that lead to Air Force's earlier blow-out wins. Finally, Nevada is a run-first team themselves, which has the potential to burn enough clock to limit Air Force's possessions.