What if?

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pipe

pipe

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Aug 3, 2022
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4,330

Tanko

Tanko

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Oct 27, 2021
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Does Mahomes look a little "lit" in that clip?:ROFLMAO:
Maybe started partying right after the game or what?
 

castelion

castelion

Joined
Nov 1, 2021
Messages
91
Assuming both teams scored TDs on their opening possession then of course the team scoring the 2nd TD in OT would go for 2. The team having the 3rd possession would have a near 70% win probability. The bigger question was whether the 49ers would have gone for 2 if they had scored a TD with the 1st possession. It ought to be a no-brainer but Shanahan would probably have kicked the XP.

Later edit: Wow! I just crunched the numbers and i'm horribly wrong. :oops:

If both teams score TDs then with a 50% 2PT conversion rate, a 95% XP conversion rate, and a win probability of 66% for the team with the 3rd possession then the team scoring the 1st TD loses 56% of the time if they go for 2 and loses 52.25% of the time if they kick the XP. The 1st possession is a statistical disadvantage even with the benefit of 3rd possession sudden death. The math is counter-intuitive.

Reid was right, Shanahan was wrong.
 
Last edited:

castelion

castelion

Joined
Nov 1, 2021
Messages
91
3rd possession would still be an advantage if neither team scores on their 1st possessions or if both teams kick FGs.

Overall there's probably no advantage to kicking or receiving. In an outdoor stadium it's probably better to take the wind or favourable field conditions.
 
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