Saturday-Friday June 1

[piratealew]

Nice 3 day heater in MLB. 14-7 yesterday, hit the top 4 and 8-3 on top plays. 580-483YTD/ (310-231 Top plays)

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Cleveland-120
⭐️Braves-144
⭐️Cubs+102
⭐️Yankees+105
⭐️Astros-130
⭐️Royals+106
⭐️Boston-140
⭐️Tigers+102
⭐️LA Dodgers-148
⭐️Giants/Mutts Over 7.5-115 (See writeup)
⭐️Miami/Arizona Over 8.5-130
Texas+121
Arizona-1-120
Giants+110
Phillies-1.5-141
Nationals+2-135
Baltimore/Chicago Over 8-112 (See writeup)
Houston/Oakland Over 8.5-112
Cleveland/LAA Over 7.5-112
Royals/Tampa Over 7.5-114

*2 Umpire Overs---1st is NYM/SF Giants, already had this over circled due to the recent hitting/pitching but now I see CB Bucknor is the home plate ump. He is 6-3 to the over this year, with a 4.2 ERA for his 9 games this year. What really stands out is the avg, 10.2 runs this year, on 64%called strikes, his games have totaled at 12, 2, 11, 6, 8, 16, 7, 17, 13. Only 3 have gone under today's posted total. We might get a little help from CB, not as much as the next game which has an even more hitter friendly ump.

***2nd Umpire Over is Baltimore/Chicago White sox with one of my favorite suspect umpires. Adrian Johnson 7-2-1 to the over in 10 games but what really stands out are 2 stats, 61.8% called strikes (VERY low), and an astronomical 5.6 ERA/ resulting in 11.6 runs per game (over 10 with 10 games is really high!). His games have gone 10, 12, 16, 18, 8, 9, 8, 6, 15, 14. None were in colorado and notice his most recent 4 games have been double digit scoring games. The pitching in this game should be really good esp with White sox throwing their stuf Fedde, but hopefully Johnson comes in as normal and makes a real tight strike zone, resulting in more walks and more balls in play for run opportunities as pitchers will be forced to locate over the plate with a smaller zone.

There's a few other slightly hitter friendly umps like Laz Diaz n Tex/Minn with 10 runs per game but calls 65% strikes, but is seeing a 4.6 ERA, and taking in his last 2 years across 62 games, he's only hitting 41% to the over. He doesn't quite fit the criterion nor the others that have been announced so far.

 

[piratealew]

White Sox+1.5-113
Texas/Minnesota Over 8-125

 

[piratealew]

***Umpire Over-Seattle/Washington Over 8.5-130. This game features Dan Bellino who is 6-4 to the over this year, with ERA in his games of 4.2, while averaging 10.6 runs per game in his 10 games. They go like this 13, 13, 14, 6, 13, 7, 9, 3, 11, 17. Only 2 games went under the total of today's game of 8.5. He is calling 63% strikes which leans to being more hitter friendly. I am playing this total today.

⭐️Seattle/Washington Over 8.5-130

 

[piratealew]

Giants over cashes, now 20-2 on umpire over calls. Baltimore just got to 8 runs so pushing that as of now.

 

[piratealew]

Cubs/Cardinals Over 8-120

 

[piratealew]

10-10 yesterday but nice to hit my #1 Cleveland again....lets see what Memorial Sunday Brings us..

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Yankees-115
⭐️Baltimore-145
⭐️Cleveland-111
⭐️Royals+110
⭐️Red Sox-137
⭐️Cardinals-129
⭐️Toronto-120
⭐️Astros-1-130
⭐️San Fran/NY Mets over 7-130
⭐️Dodgers/Reds Over 8.5-120
Phillies-1.5-140
Arizona-135
Giants-116
Dodgers-1.5-129
Mariners-1-130
Braves-1.5-120
KC/Tampa Over 7.5-112 (See writeup)
Chicago/STL Over 7-120
Cleveland/LAA Over 8-115
Mariners/Nats Over 8.5-115

****1 Over from above-KC/Tampa Over 7.5 has a Hitter-friendly ump, so this is an "umpire over," as we may get more hitter friendly calls. Already like the over for many reasons, including the hitting and pitching in this game (Before Sat, Royals had scored 8 runs or more in 5 straight, and rays have put up 4 or more in 9 of their last 13). The over is 5-3 between these 2 teams but we have a hitter friendly ump in Quinn Wolcott. He is 5-4 to the over this year, with 9 runs avg per game (More than today's total). He is calling a low 63% strikes, with is last 2 games at 60% and 62% respectively, not resulting in 15 runs (in pitcher friendly Sfo and Philly). His 9 games have gone like this 15, 15, 2, 9, 5, 12, 1, 15, 7. The average ERA for his games this year is near 4. His strike-out to walk ratio is a 2.21, which is considered very low and would be bad for a pitcher (ideally 4+, 3+ is considered good).
While his calls dont stand out like some other hitter friendly umps with Double digit runs per game, his history is clear, his last 2 years, he has averaged 56.3% of his games going over across 65 games, with average runs per game of 9 across that period. This total already stood out but this ump definitely won't hurt the total today

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Twinks-1-115

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Filthadelphia/Mile High Colorado Over 9.5-112

 

[piratealew]

9-11 Sunday. 590-504YTD/ (320-244 Top plays)Yanks screwed what could have been a really good day.

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Phillies+101
⭐️Guardians-120
⭐️Blue Jays-1-140
⭐️Brewers-114
⭐️Astros-119
⭐️Dodgers-140
⭐️Reds/Cards Over 9-115
⭐️Royals/Twinks Over 7.5-125
Reds-125
Braves-1-140
Royals+150
Red Sox+142
Astros/Mariners Over 7-135
Phillies/Giants Over 7.5-120
Toronto/Chicago Over 8.5-125

 

[piratealew]

***Umpire Over---Boston/Baltimore Over 9-115---Andy Fletcher is working this game, bringing 12.6 Runs per game behind him on 10 appearances this year, 77.8% to the over (7-2-1). This 12.6 runs per game have spread out like this with most recent first 8, 9, 11, 9, 18, 9, 16, 8, 12, 26. Only 2 games came in under today's total with 1 run less at 8, and 2 pushed the 9. He is calling only 61.7% strikes--which is squeezing pitchers in his games, resulting in a 1.89 Strike out to walk ratio (below 2 is Horrible for pitchers). None of these games were in colorado and the ERA for his games is an astronomical 5.9. With temps in the low 80's and a 60+% Humidity, and wind blowing out about 14mph, I like the over a bit more. While the pitching may be above average with good bullpens, these 2 teams can hit in these situations, especially when you have a hitter friendly ump like Fletcher helping the matter.

⭐️Boston/Baltimore Over 9-115

 

[piratealew]

***Umpire Over-Guardians/Rockies Over 10.5-130. This one is a little bit riskier obviously with the higher than normal #, however it is in Mile High Colorado where runs can be put up quickly and plentiful. The umpire in this game is Mark Wegner who is 6-3-1 to the over this year for 66.7% and averaging 10 runs per game with 63% called strikes. None of his other games were in Colorado this year, but 4 have come in under today's total. His games go 11, 9, 7, 4, 21, 5, 13, 8, 10, 12. The Strikeout to K ratio is 2.14, which is very bad for pitching. The Average ERA for his games this year is a high 4.6. Over his last 2 years, or 57 games, 56.4% have gone over, and he's averaged 9.8 runs in the games he officates, so he has has been consistently hitter friendly.
Added to this bonus is Gomber is now out for Colorado. In his place is Anthony Molina, making his first careeer start. He's a rule 5 pick up who's seen some action in 9 appearances posting a high 7.56 ERA, 1.8 WHIP. His longest outing was 3.2 IP so i expect the guardians to attack early, and with their offense, they could put up double digits themselves against Molina and the terrible Colorado Bullpen. Guardians are currently averaging 5 runs per game with 59 Homers, good for 10th in MLB so they should be able to get a couple Dingers today.

 

[doyleellis11]

Nice Work Pirate !

 

[piratealew]

***Umpire Over---Boston/Baltimore Over 9-115---Andy Fletcher is working this game, bringing 12.6 Runs per game behind him on 10 appearances this year, 77.8% to the over (7-2-1). This 12.6 runs per game have spread out like this with most recent first 8, 9, 11, 9, 18, 9, 16, 8, 12, 26. Only 2 games came in under today's total with 1 run less at 8, and 2 pushed the 9. He is calling only 61.7% strikes--which is squeezing pitchers in his games, resulting in a 1.89 Strike out to walk ratio (below 2 is Horrible for pitchers). None of these games were in colorado and the ERA for his games is an astronomical 5.9. With temps in the low 80's and a 60+% Humidity, and wind blowing out about 14mph, I like the over a bit more. While the pitching may be above average with good bullpens, these 2 teams can hit in these situations, especially when you have a hitter friendly ump like Fletcher helping the matter.

⭐️Boston/Baltimore Over 9-115

Cashed easy. Now 21-4 on umpire assisted overs.

 

[piratealew]

Thought i had my Padres-1 pick earlier guess i forgot to hit post so i';ll play the RL Live

Padres-1.5-+115 (Live Top 2nd)

 

[piratealew]

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Reds-120
⭐️Yankees-1-127
⭐️Baltimore-150
⭐️Tampa-1-103
⭐️Phillies-1.5-110
⭐️Brewers-145
⭐️Guardians-138
⭐️Padres-125
⭐️Royals/Twins Over 7.5-110 (See writeup-Umpire Over)
⭐️Guardians/Rockies Over 10-115 (See writeup-Umpire Over)
⭐️Dodgers/Mets Over 7.5-120 (Game 1)
KC Royals-115
Rangers+106
Dodgers-1.5-105 (Game 1)
Tigers-145
Braves-1.5-118
Mariners-125
Toronto/Chicago Over 7.5-115 (See writeup-Umpire Over)
Phillies/Giants Over 7.5-110
Milwaukee/Chicago Over 7.5-110
Braves/Nats Over 8-112

***First Umpire Over is KC/Minn Over 7.5. This game features a hot hitting KC team and twins teams that can put up numbers, and with an umpire in Mark Carlson who is 10-2 to the over this year for 80% backed by 11.1 Runs per game (Avg is 8-9). The strike out to K ratio is a flat 2 (Bad for pitchers), on 63% called strikes. The avg ERA for his games is a terrible 5.2, his games have scores 9, 11, 10, 21 (Min vs LAA), 4, 5, 15 (in CLEV!), 11, 12, 13 (in chicago South side). He's had a lot of Double Digit scoring and with these offenses, and a littl help ffrom Mark Carlson this number should go over like last game.

***2nd Umpire Over is Guardians and Rockies Over 10, which we hit yesterday but with a different umpire. This time it's even better than yestday's ump who was Mark Wegner at 6-3 to the over and avg only 10 runs (compared to 12 for today's ump), meanwhile today's ump is Bruce Dreckman, who is 9-1 to the over for 90% this year, with 12.5 Runs per game. 12.5 is insanely high for an ump. He calls just over 64% strikes, and has seen his games go like this 9, 14, 11, 18, 6, 13, 13,12, 13, 16. None were in colorado like today's games. He's only had 2 games out of 10 go under today's total. With the mile high altitude in effect, and guardians and rockies with hot bats and not the best pitching today, and with Dreckman behind the dish makes this an even more attractive over.

***3rd Umpire Over is Toronto/Chicago Over 7.5 with Nick Mahrley who is 6-4 to the over, with 10.2 runs scored per game with 64% called strikes, and a SO/K ratio of 2.5 (Not good for pitchers). The avg ERA for his games is also an awful 5.0 ERA. His games have gone 16, 16, 12, 4, 4, 10, 7, 9, 17, 7. 4 games have technically gone under today's number with 2 by just a smidge at 7. Over his last 2 years, he's averaged 9.2 runs per game on 64% called strikes, with 52% going over. He's not the most hitter friendly ump like the 2 aforementioned above but he should help.

 

[piratealew]

***4th Umpire Over-Texas/Arizona Over 8-130-In this game we have Todd Tichenor who is 6-3 to the over in 9 games this year, with a 10.2 runs per game average. he's seen only 3 games go under tonights today, 2 by 1 run, he has quite a few Double digit games as they go 13, 14, 11, 10, 13, 7, 16, 5, 7, 10. Recently his last 4 games all his double digits, he is calling 63.9% Strikes and the avg ERA for his games is 5.1, 1.3 WHIP, and a 2.43 SO/K ratio. Over his last 2 years of 65 games, 53.2% have gone over with a 9.6 runs per game average over those 2 years. Tonights game also features 2 starters both with over a 4 ERA, combined with the fact that Arizona averages 4.6 runs on 4.6 allowed runs per game while Texas averages 4.4 runs on 4.5 allowed to the opposition. I have this game at 9 runs, coming in 1 over the total, and combined with some help from Todd, we may have some extra chances at the over.
⭐️Texas/Arizona Over 8-130

adding 2 more:

⭐️Dodgers-116 (Game 2)
Yankees/Angels Over 8-135

 

[piratealew]

unfortunately yesterday wasn't the day. All the collapses and bad breaks went the other way. First bad day like that in a while. Get that out of the way, and grind on today.
616-538YTD/ (328-257 Top plays) Umpire Overs=24-6

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Dodgers-113
⭐️Cubs-125
⭐️Rangers-125
⭐️Royals+115
⭐️Astros+103
⭐️Guardians-139
⭐️Tigers 141 (Game 1)
⭐️Padres-1-110
⭐️Yanks/Angels Over 8-120
⭐️Tampa/Oakland Over 7.5-125
⭐️Phils/Giants Over 7.5-115
Baltimore-1-120
Cardinals+110
Yankees-1-144
Giants+115
Toronto-1-139
Pirates-120 ML (First 5 Innings GAME 2)
Arizona/Texas Over 8.5-120
Royals/Twinks Over 7-130
Braves/Nats Over 8.5-115
Toronto/Chicago Over 8-125
Padres/Marlin under 8-135

8 umpire assignments are officially up, 7 are mostly pitcher friendly or neutral to leaning in the favor of pitchers. Only one with a hitter leaning umpire in Brian Onora in Tampa game with 9.3 runs per game but 5-5 to the over. I'm playing that over based on the pitching and hitting that game. He also has a higher K% and SO/BB ratio than I like. Maybe there will be 1 hitter friendly ump in the remaining 5 or so. Will be in between oncology and other appts so may be later this afternoon. GL to all.

 

[doyleellis11]

Good luck Pirate ! Thanks for Posting !

 

[piratealew]

⭐️St Louis/Cincy Over 9-120

 

[piratealew]

1 Umpire Over---LAD/NYM Over 8.5-W/Adrian Johnson who is avg 11.3 runs per game 7-2-2 to the over with games going like this 8, 10 12, 16, 8, 9, 8, 6. 15. 14 on 61.9% called strikes. The ERA for his games is a whopping 5.5. With the dodgers bats heating up, I have this game pegged at 9 runs already and with AJ assistance we could see double digits.