What I'm watching for in Minnesota Gopher Football's first game vs. New Mexico State
- by Ryan Burns
- Aug 29, 10:33 AM
Minnesota Gopher Football kicks off their 2022 season in just a couple of days when the Fighting Jerry Kill's of New Mexico State come to town on Thursday night. As you can expect, the folks out in Las Vegas believe this is going to be quite a mismatch, as the
Gophers are 36.5 point home favorites. Now, because there's a section of folks reading this that are thinking. BUT RYAN. BOWLING GREEN. DON'T YOU REMEMBER.
I was there, and trust me, I remember.
But we're talking about a New Mexico State team that'll be traveling to Minneapolis on a short week, after losing by 11 to Nevada at home on Saturday night. That won two games last year, and have a first year coach.
I'm not expecting the Aggies to be in this in the second half, and I'm sure if I'm wrong, the masses will let me hear about it.
So what am I watching for in the Gophers first game of the season. Well, a few different things.
One of the primary reasons that Mike Sanford was fired as the offensive coordinator at Minnesota after two seasons was the passing game wasn't good enough. The quarterback play wasn't consistent enough. The pass-catchers weren't consistent enough, and neither was the pass protection. I'd say the route designs and passing game concepts weren't as well, but there's a reason that Kirk Ciarrocca is now back directing the offense.
And that's to get the passing game back moving in a direction that's consistent, and one that can generate explosive plays.
Nevada on Saturday was abysmal through the air as their two quarterback combined to throw for 78 yards on 23 attempts. That's horrible, but I'll remind you that the Wolfpack have a preseason win total of 4.5 wins. So they're not expected to make a bowl game out of the Mountain West.
I'm frankly not expecting this to be a game where Minnesota throws the ball "a lot". I'd set the over/under around 23.5 attempts for Tanner Morgan, but compare that to last year when Morgan threw the ball on average under 20 games a game, that's progress!
And when Minnesota does throw it, I'm hoping to see a lot of reps for Dylan Wright and Brevyn Spann-Ford. I'll remind folks that Wright only played 25% of the snaps for Minnesota last season. That number should be at least 60% this fall, and with the amount of impactful plays he had last season on such a low snap share, I'm hoping that as his snap share increases, so do the big plays.
With Spann-Ford, it's just about him getting enough volume in a given game. There's no reason that he should get at least five targets a game. He's the best receiving tight end that Minnesota's had on the roster since Maxx Williams. So start using him as such.
I think the headline says it all, but four new starters from last season will be along Rimington candidate John Michael Schmitz at center. Both guards in Axel Ruschmeyer and Michigan transfer Chuck Filiaga have started games the last two seasons, but they'll be thrust into full-time duty as sixth-year guys in 2022. The beauty though of the interior offensive line, is they are old. And that's with a capital "O". All three projected starters are sixth year guys, and I'm glad the days of Minnesota trotting out teenagers in the trenches are gone.
The two tackle spots are different in terms in expectations. Left tackle Aireontae Ersery has been showered with praise for months from head coach PJ Fleck as his ceiling is unlike any tackle prospect that the Gophers have had in my 12 years covering the team. The way that Ersery moves and bends at left tackle is very different, and that's good for Tanner Morgan. Do I anticipate there will be bumps along the way from Ersery? Absolutely. We're talking about a third-year guy that has one career start. That ceiling is a lofty, but first Ersery needs to find consistency. That starts on Thursday night.
At the right tackle position, I still don't know who starts or how many guys plays there. Will it be Martes Lewis or Notre Dame transfer Quinn Carroll? My gut says that Lewis gets the start as he was the most consistent option during fall camp, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Carroll get time, or even fourth-year JJ Guedet as well.
But ultimately, I don't want to see a ton of rotating once conference play starts. I've seen PJ Fleck mess around OL rotation through the years at Minnesota (Curtis Dunlap and Blaise Andries at guard, among others), and I haven't been a big fan personally. Have Lewis and Carroll start to figure it out for three non-conference games, and whichever has the best audition, gets the full work load against Michigan State.
Outside of "who", I want to see this group not struggle with "communication" issues up front. I've seen Gopher offensive lines of yesteryear struggle with stunts and blitzes, especially in the non-conference. If I was New Mexico State, I'd be dialing up those left and right.
Nevada's two starting tailbacks were able to run for 170 yards on 5.3 yards per carry on Saturday, that should be the floor for the Gophers on Saturday night.
The biggest question mark about the Gophers 2022 defense starts up front. Minnesota's got a new defensive line coach in Brick Haley to go with a lot of inexperienced bodies as the days of Boye Mafe, Esezi Otomewo, Micah Dew-Treadway and Nyles Pinckney among others are gone. That means a lot of newer faces are going to start to get their shot on Thursday.
I actually feel that Minnesota could legitimately rotate 10 defensive linemen, as Danny Striggow and Austin Bookerhave flashed enough behind Thomas Rush to earn snaps. Same thing goes for Jah Joyner and Lorenza Surgers behind Jalen Logan-Redding. At defensive tackle, you'll see plenty of Trill Carter and Houston Baptist transfer Kyler Baugh, but I'm also interested in seeing what Gage Keys, Deven Eastern, Clemson transfer Darnell Jefferies and Jacob Schuster look like.
I expect there to be some wide eyes at times with first game jitters, but one of the things that stood out about Haley's 2022 defensive line in fall camp was their physicality. I want to see that translate from the practice field to under the lights of Huntington Bank Stadium.
Outside of the coverage units, which were absolutely elite last season, it just hasn't been good enough on special teams. And it needs to be as Minnesota returns their starting kicker, punter, long snapper and kickoff guy for the first time in the Fleck era at Minnesota.
Kicker Matthew Trickett made 68% of his field goal attempts last season, and with Dragan Kesich's 50+ yard attempt blocked at Iowa, the field goal percentage was good enough for 11th in the Big Ten. Where Minnesota really needs these two to improve in 2022 is from 45+ yards. The Gophers last season were only 3/9 from that range. I get that they're college kickers, but that needs to be a step forward.
Punter Mark Crawford last season ranked 8th in the Big Ten in net punt at 41.7 yards. On his 47 punts last season, he placed 24 punts (51%) inside the 20-yard line and recorded only one touchback. That's really good. Where I want to see Crawford take the next step is being able to flip the field when the Gophers get backed up in their own end. Only six of his 47 punts went 50+ yards.
But my biggest ask from Rob Wengerthis fall is to have something resembling a return game, which has been missing for Minnesota since 2018. The Gophers haven't had a kick return touchdown since 2017 when Rodney Smith did it against Nebraska. And it was 2018 when the last punt return touchdown happened from Demetrius Douglasagainst Wisconsin.
Minnesota's kick return game left a lot to be desired last season, as returns had a net positive of TWO yards in 13 games. TWO YARDS. IN 13 GAMES. There's no excuse for that this fall with a multitude of options back there.
The punt return game was just waiving a white flag for a large majority of opportunities last year. They'd leave the defense on the field and go "punt safe" far too often for my liking, so I hope they give new punt return man Quentin Redding some actual opportunities to make a difference.
I think back to 2019 where the Gophers had to do everything in their power to pull out non-conference victories against South Dakota State, Georgia Southern and Fresno State. All very close games. Going back to last season, they had to sweat out a five-point win over Miami of Ohio before losing to Bowling Green as a huge home favorite. The only non-conference blow out in recent memory is on the road at Colorado last season.
So when five of the last six non-conference games have been folks being on the edge of their seat, I'd rather see that pattern change here in 2022.
New Mexico State is not going to win many games in Jerry Kill's first season. They're traveling here on a short week. I can't think of a reason why this game shouldn't be a 20+ point home win for Minnesota.
So once you get a lead, keep your foot on the gas pedal until the final whistle. If this is the year that Minnesota finally breaks through in the West, stop playing down to the level of your opponent early on.
