These are the most perceived edges, technically. The UPSET Basket is more of a market tracking Fund and the chart is important. I buy in and out of the plays the are generated from that Fund. I have been bought in all season and it feels like it's getting a little rangebound.
The Visiting Dog Fund are the best edges. The key here is just how much of an edge I seek. For stability there can be safety in numbers and just taking the highest edges, the most precious gems among the rest, can lead to fewer plays...and more volatility. The more plays you generate with a certain expectation the more likely you will reach that expectation.
My goal with that Fund is to generate as many plays as I can while still maintaining that edge. Give me all the gemstones, almost give me plain rocks, if they're pretty, and I will pull the trigger. Thus, a positive field from which to graze.
Look at this chart of units profit per win percentage and number of bets. The Visiting Dog Fund is running a little hot at 56.3% this season (40-31-3), which is 54.1% counting the 3 pushes.
This chart assumes -110 risked per bet, to show the net profit at that level. Reduced vig yields more, obviously. In these markets, over time, you get far fewer "65% bets" than you will the lower percentages. There are simply more lower percentage plays out there.
Notice that getting 55% of 250 plays makes more money than hitting 65% of 50 plays. At 57.5%, you're doubling the profit 65% of 50 plays.
| | Number | Of | Bets | | Win % | 50 | 100 | 150 | 200 | 250 | | | | | | | 65% | 13.25 | 26.5 | 39.75 | 53 | 66.25 | 62.5% | 10.625 | 21.25 | 31.875 | 42.5 | 53.125 | 60.0% | 8.000 | 16 | 24 | 32 | 40 | 57.5% | 5.375 | 10.75 | 16.125 | 21.5 | 26.875 | 55.0% | 2.750 | 5.5 | 8.25 | 11 | 13.75 | 54.0% | 1.700 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 52.5% | 0.125 | 0.25 | 0.375 | 0.5 | 0.625 |
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Consider those Visiting Dog Fund spread plays to be made at different levels of confidence or win percentage, all with a perceived edge.
Just how many 65% plays can I get over time? If we add the column of 10 bets to the chart, 65% of 10 bets raises 2.65 units.
But I will surely be able to pull the trigger at 54% and 55% for almost 100 bets before those 10 65%ers show up. Just 50 bets at 55% will raise more than 10 bets at 65%.
If I can continue to expect some type of winning expectation, in these tight markets, it's wisest to pull the trigger as many times as possible.
Counting this upcoming week the Visitng Dog Fund has 85 plays so far this year.
Making the bet that wins, or most likely to win, is nice; but making the winning bet over time is more prudent.