Chicago has locked up the #1 overall pick
Who will get No. 2 pick in 2024 NFL Draft?
How Commanders can clinch No. 2 pick
Washington currently sits as with the second overall pick in the draft. In order for the Commanders to secure that spot, they might need some outside help.
Th easiest way for Washington to stay in that No. 2 spot is to lose in Week 18, and have New England lose as well. As long as the Commanders pick up a 13th loss, they own the tiebreaker over the Cardinals, so no matter the result of Arizona's game against Seattle, that won't be an issue if Washington loses to Dallas.
The problem is if the Patriots also lose in Week 18, leaving both the Commanders and Pats at 4-13. Or, if all three teams win, that puts the race for the No. 2 pick in a three-way tie with Arizona, Washington and New England all at 5-12. That's when tiebreakers come into play.
Steve Kornacki recently broke down the tie-breaking scenarios on NFL Network. The No. 1 tiebreaker when it comes to the draft is not head-to-head records, but actually strength of schedule. When it comes to New England and Washington, it quite literally may come down to a single game.
As Kornacki explains, the Commanders' opponents have a total record this year of 140-132. The Patriots' opposition have compiled a combined record of 141-131. So certain other results in Week 18 could ultimately dictate who ends up with the top pick, if it swings the strength of schedule one way or another.
For Washington to maintain its place in the draft order, it has to have the record of New England's opponents be better than its own. That way, the strength of schedule tiebreaker works in its favor for the No. 2 pick.
How Patriots can clinch No. 2 pick
What was stated above basically also applies to the Patriots. New England can land the No. 2 pick with a loss to New York and a Washington win over Dallas. As long as the Patriots lose, the result of the Cardinals game does not matter.
However, if both the Pats and Commanders wind up at 4-13, then the strength of schedule tiebreaker comes into play. New England would need its record of previous opponents to be worse than Washington's, otherwise it will not get the second overall pick.
If somehow the opponent's records are identical at the conclusion of the regular season, then the next step in the tie-breaking procedures is head-to-head, which works in Belichick and Co.'s favor. The Commanders defeated the Patriots earlier this year 20-17, giving New England the edge in that tie-breaking scenario and the rights to the No. 2 pick in the draft.
How Cardinals can clinch No. 2 pick
For Arizona, it is a heck of a lot simpler than the cases for New England and Washington.
It's simple — the Cardinals need to lose, and the Patriots and Commander both must win or tie in Week 18. The only way for the organization to get the second overall pick is to be the only team holding a record of 4-13.
Arizona's strength of schedule is far stronger than either of the other two clubs, so if there is a scenario where the Cardinals have the same record as either or both teams for the No. 2 draft pick, then the tie-breaking edge goes to either the Commanders or Pats.