After 5 games without a win, can Manchester City travel to the Hawthornes and pick up the 3 points that will help keep them in the title race? Spurs, West Ham & Middlesbrough have already failed to win there this season and the only travelling team to leave the Hawthornes with all 3 points was Everton so perhaps it’s not as easy as you’d think.
The stats are firmly on the away teams side. Out of everything I measure, West Brom are only ahead in the shots on target stats (they have 40%at home, Manchester City have 36.67% away).
That’s it.
On everything else, Manchester City are the winners, sometimes by a clear distance. For instance, West Brom have had 97 shots at goal this season, Manchester City have had 151. Manchester City score an average of 1 goal per game when playing away from home, West Brom have managed 0.25 goals per game when at home. I could go on, but I won’t as I think you get the picture.
Then there are the head to head records. Manchester City won 3-0 last time this fixture was played, they also won the return match at the Etihad Stadium. In fact they’ve won 45.5% of the last 123 matches between these two going back to 1903. Over the last 4 seasons they’ve won 75% of matches between these 2 sides, that does indicate a fair amount of dominance.
But, at odds around 1.42, there just isn’t any value backing City for an away win here. Indeed, the value is on the home win market with odds of 9 being available with BetVictor. It is a long shot but it’s justified according to the math.
Now as much as I hate going against value, I can’t see West Brom picking up a win here. City have drifted a little recently with their run of draws and will want to get back on track. So I’ve had to look around and find something that goes along with a Manchester City win but also contains some value.
What I found is Manchester City to win the first half. SBOBet are offering that at 1.97 right now but even the 1.91 on offer from bet365, BetVictor and Ladbrokes would just about be enough (though I wouldn’t want to go much lower). That bet would have won in 7 out of the last 10 matches and I think it’s enough to see us pick up another winner here.
It’s time for Manchester City to get back that winning feeling and this is just the game to do that. I doubt it will be easy against a resolute West Brom but it is very much achievable.
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