I think it’s only fair to declare my impartiality right at the start. I am a Spurs fan and although that’s been difficult at times in the last 30 or so years, it’s never been something I’ve tried to hide. That doesn’t change stats though and as many of you may know, I work with stats on a daily basis for my betting and it often leads to some good insights.
These were the top 2 sides last season and rightly so. Spurs were fantastic in their last season at White Hart Lane and it took a really good side to pip them to the post. Chelsea were that side and not just in the League. There weren’t many occasions last season when Mauricio Pochettino was out-thought but the FA Cup semi-final was one of them.
Antonio Conte doesn’t have the depth of squad available to him for this game as he did the last time these two met at Wembley. Spurs were officially the “away” side that day but now they are at home as they settle in for a season on the big pitch and under the bright lights at Wembley.
Chelsea will be missing at least Gary Cahill and Cesc Fabregas from their squad for this game after both players saw red against Burnley. You can be pretty sure that Diego Costa won’t be making an appearance as his troubles at the Stamford Bridge club continue. Eden Hazard is out injured and there are doubts over both Pedro and new signing Tiemoué Bakaoyoko will be fit enough to start what is sure to be a grueling match.
Tottenham hardly have an unblemished injury record either. Erik Lamela is still out injured, as is first choice left back Danny Rose. Kieran Trippier is unlikely to be fit enough after his recent ankle injury to play and Georges-Kévin Nkoudou has a foot injury that is keeping him out of training.
So, two high achieving but heavily patched up sides will be battling it out at a ground where Spurs haven’t experienced a lot of recent success.
Despite the defensive strength of both of these sides I can see there being goals in this game. Both sides have defensive injury concerns and that could lead to a more open game. Over 2.5 goals is a very tempting bet at 1.93 with Pinnacle and that would have been a winner in most of the games over the last 5 seasons. Both Teams To Score is lower at around 1.69 and holds no value in my book.
While I am going to have a little taste of the BTTS market, my main focus is on the area of Match Odds. Instead of backing my own team I’m following the value by backing Chelsea to come good at odds of 3.79, once again with Pinnacle and other green listed bookmakers.
It’s not an easy bet to make and if my side come through on Sunday I won’t be thinking about the money I’ve lost. If Tottenham do lose though, I will have a tasty win to console me, just a little.
Calculators
