Round 1 of the 2017 Super 18 competition begins on Tuesday, the start of a 16 game regular season for each team. Here are previews of the biggest games this weekend.
Rebels v Blues, Thursday 23rd February
This season the Rebels have a fully fit Nic Stirzaker skippering the squad bidding to improve on the 2016 performance which saw them finish twelfth overall with seven wins and eight defeats. They tended to beat the struggling sides last season winning home and away at the Force and the Reds as well as beating the Cheetahs and Sunwolves and their best result came away from home, a 21-17 win over the Waratahs. The Rebels lost all five of their matches against New Zealand opposition in 2016.
The Blues were unbeaten against Australian opposition in 2016, winning three home fixtures, beating the Force in Perth and drawing away at the Reds. Their only other away win came at the Kings in Port Elizabeth and the Blues finished eleventh overall with eight wins, six defeats, and one draw.
The Blues are 8/11 favourites here with William Hill. Probably not the strongest of the New Zealand franchises but likely to be worthy favourites and it is worth taking Blues -3 at 10/11 with Ladbrokes.
Highlanders v Chiefs, Friday 24th February
The Highlanders were beaten in the semi-final last season, losing out to the Lions in Johannesburg. They finished third overall and won all three of their local derby matches staged in Dunedin. The Sharks were the only visiting side to dent an otherwise perfect home record when they made the most of having a numerical advantage to win 15-14.
The Chiefs had an identical win/loss ratio to the Highlanders last season. They finished fourth overall and after they exited the competition at the semi-final stage of the play-offs, losing to the Hurricanes in Wellington. The Chiefs won seven of their 10 away fixtures and when visiting New Zealand sides they won two of four including a Round 1 victory away at the Crusaders.
Prices here are Highlanders 5/6 Chiefs 5/4 and +/-3 on the points handicap. Should be a cracking game and I like the Chiefs +3 at 10/11 with green listed bookmaker Ladbrokes in what looks a real coin flip match.
Crusaders v Brumbies, Saturday 25th February
The Crusaders were the sixth overall lost season with a record of 11 wins and four defeats but they came unstuck in the first play off round, losing to the Lions in Johannesburg. In Christchurch, they won six and lost two and all three visiting Australian sides, the Reds (38-5), Waratahs (29-10) and Rebels (85-26) were beaten here. The CruSaders also beat the Force in Perth and the Brumbies in Canberra to complete a clean sweep against Australian opposition in 2016.
The Brumbies were the only Australian representatives in the playoffs last season but their stay was short-lived as they lost 15-9 to the Highlanders in Canberra. They won four times on their travels last season but the only victory outside of Australia came at the Cheetahs and one visit to New Zealand saw them go down 23-10 to the Highlanders. The Brumbies have won just two of their last 11 meetings with New Zealand sides, any venue. Without their talismanic player David Pocock on a sabbatical it is expected they take a step back this year
The Crusaders at 9 point favourites at 10/11, a spread I expect them to cover here.
The Sharks are the first South African side to action in Super Rugby 2017 and their assignment in Round 1 comprises of a visit to Brisbane to take on the Queensland Reds.
Reds v Sharks, Friday 24th February
The Reds managed just three wins in 2016 alongside one draw and 11 defeats. Those three victories all came at home with the Highlanders being the most notable scalp ahead of the Cheetahs and Sunwolves. The Reds also drew at home to the Blues but they finished a lowly fifteenth overall. In their final warm-up match, the Reds beat the Rebels 32-13.
The Sharks were eighth best overall in the regular season of 2016, squeezing into the play offs where they were promptly hammered 41-0 by the Hurricanes in Wellington. They won four away games in 2016, local derby matches at the Stormers and Kings, in New Zealand at the Highlanders and in Argentina against Los Jaguares. The Sharks didn’t visit Australia in 2016 but they have won seven of their last 11 on Australian soil and three of the last five against the Reds in Brisbane have also gone their way.
The Sharks are 7/4 underdogs with Betfair Sportsbook. I give them every chance of winning here, and it should certainly be much closer than 7/4 implies.
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