Here’s a mantra that is useful not just for life but for betting: only dead fish swim with the tide. When Stoke takes on the Swans in Monday Night Football, the majority will be backing Stoke. Indeed, some may even be expecting a rout.
That is because they are listening to the media narrative. Stoke are on a great run – they are a draw or win away from their best sequence for two-and-a-half years in the Premier League – while Swansea are on a stinker. Bob Bradley’s team have not won in eight, losing six. It’s their worst ever run.
And so it is obvious where the tide will take you. You bet Stoke. The narrative is Good versus Bad. But wait. Are stoke city good? It was only five weeks ago that Stoke were bottom and they were unable to defend high balls. They were the hopeless outfit to be taken on.
Swansea are 3.8 in a couple of green-listed bookmakers (bet365, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes) to get the win with Stoke 2.1 (William Hill). The draw is 3.65 (Marathon).
Swansea, at some stage, will get it right. And the signs are there this could be the game. So we will go against the tide and try to find a way to make money out of them.
This is the most important job for a punter. We have to look for that edge, that piece of information, that tactical switch or whatever it may be, to spot when the resurgence is on.
In their last two games, Swansea have played well. There has been fluency in their passing and they have created chances.
Against Arsenal, they were beaten 3-2 and arguably they should have had a point. They piled forward and created a couple of golden opportunities to force an equalizer. It wasn’t to be.
But what was really impressive about Bradley and Swansea was that they didn’t allow this to impact on their confidence. According to their results they should be cautious, afraid of their own shadow and reluctance to commit men forward. Not a bit of it.
Last time out against Watford they committed men forward with gusto. They had more possession, more shots, more shots on target and more corners. And by the way, against Arsenal they had more possession, only three fewer shots, the same number on target as the Gunners and more corners. Okay, Arsenal did have a man red carded but it was still terrific stuff from the Swans.
We repeat: this is not how a team with so few points should be playing. Instead, this is a team who can reasonably be expected to get a decent result in their next match.
Stoke? We’re not saying they are a bad team. We are just saying they are not a good team. That much is obvious that this is their best run for years. They are up and down just as you would expect them to be. And when they were on their bad run, you would expect them to eventually find their feet.
If you reckon we’ve made a good case for Swansea, feel free to bet them at 3.8. But if you want to be more circumspect then the Asian Handicap maybe for you. With +0.25, Swansea are available at 2.17 with BetVictor. That rates our top call.
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