You won’t often hear this column say this, so take note: Pakistan are outstanding value to win their first Test against Sri Lanka, which starts Thursday, at skinny odds on BMR\’s best bookmakers\’ green list.
The home side are no better than -137 with Stan James for victory. Ordinarily we would spend the next few minutes dissecting why and how it was Sri Lanka, the whopping outsiders at +470 (Marathon), who were terrific value.
But, to be frank, we tried to do that. Really tried. And we just can’t see it. This Sri Lanka team are in an awful rut and have a myriad of problems (including allegations that they have been throwing matches). The main one, for this tour, is that they come up against a Pakistan team somewhat resurgent.
They won the ICC Champions Trophy and then celebrated the return of international cricket with a 2-1 T20 series victory over a World XI. Do not underestimate the feel-good factor here. The vibe is so good that it has been largely forgotten that Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq, the bedrock of their Test XI over the years, have retired.
It is true that Younis and Misbah scored the bulk of their runs. But while they were doing fine work, they were helping the next generation bed in. Asad Shafiq, Azhar Ali and Babar Azam are a good crop of established talent. Not to mention Sarfaraz Ahmed, the skipper, who is one of our favourite international players for his reliability.
They really impress with the ball. Pace pair Hasan Ali and Mohammad Amir are a real handful while legspinner Yasir Shah, still the best of the best, completes a balanced attack.
By contrast, Sri Lanka are in a bit of a state talent-wise. They are relying heavily on old stagers like Rangana Herath and Dil Perrera to take their wickets. They are 39 and 35, respectively.
On the face of it Sri Lanka’s recent record does not look too bad, largely thanks to a hammering of Australia. But that’s not relevant. An Aussie side in unfamiliar conditions is no form guide. More pertinent is how the Lankans get on against their more powerful neighbours – Pakistan and India.
Well, they have won only two of their last nine series. This record, coupled with Pakistan’s terrific record in the UAE – where the series is being held – are key. Pakistan have lost only one in 11.
Pakistan are -225 (Bet365) to win the two-match series. And while that may be too skinny, how about the 2-0 correct score at +138 with the same firm? It’s more value.
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