New Zealand and Pakistan meet in a two-Test series from next Wednesday. It is a potentially pulsating affair which tests the very bedrock of the value-seekers formula in cricket.
For those who don’t know, cricket bettors rely on the different batting and bowling conditions found in different parts of the world. In places like New Zealand and England, batsmen are troubled more by seam and swing bowlers. Spin bowlers take a back seat. But in Asia, the opposite is true.
So when the Kiwis host Pakistan we have a clash not just of cultures but of cricketers conditioned in completely different ways. New Zealand have just returned from India where they were given a beating because plain and simple, they couldn’t adapt to spinning conditions.
Pakistan have just beaten West Indies – in each of the three formats – because they used their knowledge and expertise in slow, dry conditions.
So the initial reaction is that New Zealand should win comfortably. They are 2 with Betway to take the spoils with Pakistan 3.8 and the draw 3.25.
There is a problem, however. And it is the form of Pakistan. They are rated the second-best side in the world. And for a period – before India completed their stroll against the Kiwis – they were the best. They also managed a draw in England. Outlier.
Or was it? Pakistan have, in fact, not a lost a Test series to New Zealand (remember conditions are the same in the Mother Country) in 30 years. They also play a brand of cricket which is attritional and fiercely competitive. They grind teams down. New Zealand are more flashy, attacking, off-the-cuff.
And the hosts have some problems, too. They have had to axe Martin Guptill, the opening batsmen because his form has been so poor. Mitchell Santner, their spinning all-rounder, is out with a fractured wrist. The form, or lack of it, of key man Ross Taylor, is also a major foible. It means there is a hell of a lot of pressure on Kane Williamson and Tom Latham for runs.
We are not worried about their bowling attack. Trent Boult, Tim Southee, Neil Wagner and Matt Henry are an excellent collection of pacers who will move the ball in and out at speed.
So how do Pakistan match-up man for man? Well, the experience they had in England should stand them in good stead.
Misbah-ul-Haq and Younis Khan are grisly old warriors who have seen it all. If they don’t know that they should be playing the ball as late as possible down under and be prepared to go run less for 20 minutes at a time, we would be very surprised.
Asad Shafiq is another who has a terrific technique to cope with a moving ball. He knuckles down with the best of them. Azhar Ali, another key man, is more cavalier, however.
It would be fair to argue, therefore, that these two batting units are as good each other.
With the ball, Pakistan could be brilliant or terrible. On paper, Wahab Riaz, Mohammad Amir, Rahat Ali, Imran Khan and Sohail Khan should have the ability to do the lot on helpful pitches. Amir, of course, has the supposed x-factor.
But it is Sohail who is the undervalued one. He outbowled Amir in England with one wicket more in two fewer matches. His 13 came at 25 apiece while Amir’s 12 came at 42.
It should mean that Pakistan have a collection of pace bowlers to give a low-on-confidence Kiwi batting line-up a stern test. They also have the mystery spinner that New Zealand do not. Yasir Shah might not extract much turn and bounce but he still finished as Pakistan’s top wicket-taker in England.
The best way to get with Pakistan is to snaffle the 2.7 that Betway offers with the drawn series a no bet, getting your money back if it ends 1-1 or 0-0.
Betway are best at 1.95 about a win for the Kiwis in the first Test at Christchurch. Pakistan are 4 among Green Listed Bookmakers and the draw is the same price with Boylesports, Skybet, Sportingbet, Unibet, Bwin, 32Red and 888Sport.
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