Man Utd can secure qualification to the Champions League knockout stages by beating Benfica at home on Tuesday and they look a good bet to make it happen. The Red Devils reignited their Premiership campaign with a battling victory over Tottenham on Saturday and can now shift their focus to European matters. They have been sensational so far in qualifying and lead their group with nine points out of nine, having beaten all three rivals. They beat Benfica 1-0 in Lisbon a couple of weeks ago and all they need to do is repeat that feat at Old Trafford and they will be in the last 16.
Portuguese champions Benfica have endured a miserable start to the campaign: they are well off the pace in their domestic league and have lost all three Champions League games. They were expected to be the team most likely to challenge Man Utd at the top of this group, but instead, they are rock bottom, with zero points and a -7 goal difference. The lowlight was a 5-0 drubbing at the hands of Swiss team Basel, and confidence will be fragile among this group of players.
Man Utd is perfectly poised to capitalise. They have the best home defensive record of any team in Europe’s top five leagues this season, having not conceded a single goal in five games. They also kept a clean sheet in their sole Champions League game at Old Trafford, a 3-0 win against Basel. After shutting Benfica out in Portugal, they will fancy their chances of doing so again on Tuesday in front of their home fans. Old Trafford is a fortress once again and if they can keep another clean sheet, all they will need to do is put one past a Benfica defence that has leaked eight goals in just three games. In Romelu Lukaku, Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford, Juan Mata and Jesse Lingard, they easily have the firepower to do so.
That all makes Man Utd to win to nil look a great bet in this game. Ladbrokes, Coral and Bet Victor are all offering 2.10 on that outcome, which is a sensational price considering Man Utd have won all six league and Champions League fixtures at Old Trafford to nil so far this season. Benfica have scored just once in three Champions League games and could not breach Man Utd’s defence at their own stadium, so they are unlikely to do so at the Theatre of Dreams. Tottenham, Everton, Crystal Palace, Basel, Leicester and West Ham have all failed to score at Old Trafford this season. The only team to score there was Burton in the Carabao Cup, but that was against a Man Utd reserve team made up of youth players, who won 4-1. It all points to a frustrating afternoon in front of goal for Benfica.
If you think Man Utd will win but are worried that Benfica will score, another option would be Man Utd to win and under 3.5 goals at 2.05 with Coral and Ladbrokes. Jose Mourinho’s teams do not take many risks going forwards and will be likely to keep it tight, organised and disciplined. All of their last five games have seen under 3.5 goals, as have four of Benfica’s last five. Or if you are feeling even more cautious, Man Utd to win and under 4.5 goals is 1.53 with Sky Bet, Bet Stars, Betfair and 188Bet. Lukaku looks good in any time goal scorer stakes at 1.80 with 888 Sport and Unibet. He did not get on the scoresheet against Spurs and rarely goes two games without a goal, so he will be expected to terrorise this Benfica defence with his muscularity, movement and aerial ability.
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