The Manchester derby is always a hotly-contested and eagerly-anticipated affair. And Thursday’s meeting between the pair will be no different. It could well decide who finishes in that crucial fourth position.
United are beginning a run of four games in ten days. City are looking for a remedy after their only chance of silverware disappeared following a surprise defeat by Arsenal in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley. It means Pep Guardiola will finish the season without a trophy for the first time in his career.
The odds are sweet on City taking the bragging rights. They are no better than 1.91 (Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, and other green listed bookmakers). United are 4.45 with Marathon but are also available at 4.35 with Unibet. The draw is 3.8 (Stan James).
So can we get the favourite beat here? Or in other words: are the Citizens a value pick at those prices? It is relatively easy to make a case for ‘no’.
Their form is just not hot. They have two wins in seven and one of those was against stragglers Hull City. Doubts remain about their ability to defend with one clean sheet in that sequence.
They have fitness concerns surrounding Sergio Aguero and David Silva. They were involved in a light session on Monday but City will be cautious about overworking them in case they relapse.
Curiously punters should not be concerned. Without the pair this season (23 matches), City have a win percentage of 70 as opposed to 48 with them.
If City are out of touch, United are bang on it. They are unbeaten in their last 23 league games, which is the longest unbeaten run by a Premier League team since 2010-11 (24 games).
United also have injury worries. Zlatan Ibrahimovic, for example, is definitely out and it is a wonder as to whether he has played his last game for the club. How do United fare without him? He has missed 14 matches and, again, the numbers are surprisingly good – a 64 per cent win record compared to 59.
Marcos Rojo, Chris Smalling and Phil Jones are also out injured but United looked assured against Burnley at the back (okay, it was only Burnley) but for some time we have been saying United are not quite the also-rans that folks make out.
There are far worse 4.45 pokes about. If you can’t quite bring yourself to take those odds then the 2.07 (188Bet) about them +0.5 on the Asian handicap is a solid wager.
As for goals Anthony Martial’s running up front against Burnley caught the eye and he could get in behind City. The 4.75 that 32Red offer is a good bet.
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