Chennai, December 16th-20th
India beat England by an innings and 36 runs in Mumbai to take an unassailable 3-0 lead with one game left to play in the series. England won the toss in mbai and looked to have made a competitive total of 400 on a pitch that offered bounce and turn from day 1
Then when India batted they were in the game with India reduced to 307-6. What followed was an all time great innings from Virat Kohli that took the game beyond England and India into a 230 run lead.
Batting second England had no answer to Ashwin, who ended up with 12 wickets in the match, proving once again that the gap in quality amongst the spinners’ ranks was a key difference between the sides.
England, in picking the third seamer, admitted they had got their team selection wrong and also betrayed their own lack of trust in their spinners
England, in a “rebuilding phase” according to coach Trevor Bayliss, have made mistakes both in the composition of the tour party but also test selections, but also don’t have the personnel to take on India in the sub-continent.
Root, Cook, Bairstow, Stokes, and Rashid have performed well, but in these conditions, England’s seamers (with whom India struggled to cope in English conditions on their last tour) have been passengers as have the support spinners
The final test of the series takes place in Chennai, at which only 1 test has been played since 2008 (India beat Australia by 8 wickets, Ashwin took 12 wickets in the match and 24 of the 32 wickets that fell in the match did so to spinners) There is unlikely to be much to change the patterns we have seen this series. Winning the toss and batting is important, England needs to bat long and compile totals, Ashwin will be the main threat with the ball and England don’t really have the personnel to conduct the required strategy in the likely conditions.
Odds for the game are predictable enough, India 1-2 England available at 6-1 and the draw 9/2. I expect India to win and take series 4-0
In submarket betting and series statistics we can see how dominant Kohli and Ashwin have been, series winners for India and really only Root, Stokes, and Rashid have performed as required for an away series in India
Top England batsman:
Top run-scorers through four Tests: Root 397, Stokes 316, Cook 310, Bairstow 302
Prices for Chennai are Root 11/4 (Skybet), Cook 3/1, Jennings 5/1, Bairstow 11/2, Stokes 8/1, Buttler 8/1
Given the way Root batted at Mumbai in the second innings, top scoring once again with 77 and showing attacking intent, he looks a very good favourite here indeed and worthy of support.
Top England bowler
Top wicket-takers through four tests: Rashid 22, Ali 9 Stokes 7
Rashid at 5/2 with Coral or William Hill is an excellent price in what are likely to be conducive conditions for spin versus seam again
Top India batsman
Top run scorers through four Tests: Kohli 640, Pujara 385, Vijay 328
Kohli at 9/4 with Coral and William Hill looks like another perfectly reasonable price and has to be supported.
Top India bowler
Top wicket taker through four tests: Ashwin 27, Jadeja 16, Shami 10.
Ashwin is as short as 11/8 best price (Green Listed Bookmaker Coral and Hills) here, a very likely winner but a marginal value in a single innings.
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