India’s five-match ODI series against Australia could well be billed as Virat Kohli versus David Warner. After all, they are rated as No. 1 and 2 respectively on the ICC batting list. They also routinely head the list for top runscorer honours for their teams.
So ahead of the meeting between the two sides – and two master blasters – on Thursday in game two, it is perhaps worth judging whether Kohli and Warner are actually value wagers.
We don’t doubt their talent, let us be clear. Kohli’s strokeplay is like honey oozing off a spoon and he is unmatchable in the pressure of a chase. Warner, slightly more agricultural, is not everyone’s cup of tea although that is probably more likely due to his, shall we say, combative persona. This translates to the pitch for bonus performances, though.
Kohli has been rated as +275 with Bet365 to top score for India. Let’s get our calculators out. That is an implied probability of 26.7 percent. Now, what percentage of innings does Kohli, God-like though he may be, actually win us that bet in his career?
Well, the number comes back as just a shade under 24.5. So we’re talking about real odds of +213 – a value wager.
As for Warner, his odds to top score for Australia are the same, also with Bet365 and William Hill. How does he fare when the numbers are crunched? Very well. Warner is value for us to bet for the top Aussie bat in this game.
Often we talk about top runscorer and man of the match being inextricably linked because of the game’s obsession with batsmen. And thanks to our stats spreadsheet we are able to check how Kohli and Warner score here when we check their percentages for picking up the gong.
Kohli is actually one of the most decorated current players in terms of winning match awards. Only AB De Villiers, of South Africa, has won more in ODI. Kohli has 24 awards in 195 matches. That’s a rate of 12.3 percent. Or in other words, he is a +713 chance.
What odds can we get on Thursday for him winning man of the match? Good numbers. He is +750 with green listed bookmaker Bet365 so that is another wager we could snaffle, safe in the knowledge that its value.
Warner has fewer awards. But his rate of 12 in 97 is identical to Kohli’s strike rate. So the +900 with Bet365 is actually better valued than Kohli.
Calculators
