There are days in a Premier League season that feel seminal. Sunday, when four title contenders go head-to-head over a couple of matches, is one of those.
Manchester City has the chance to go eight points clear at the top with a win over Arsenal in the early game of the day. A victory for Pep Guardiola’s league leaders would feel so significant too, especially given what’s to follow.
Indeed, one of Chelsea or Manchester United will drop points when they meet in the evening fixture. And should City be tamed by the Gunners, it’s a match that will give Antonio Conte or Jose Mourinho’s team an opportunity to grab what’d be a huge win.
While these types of contests are so frequently decided by fine margins, there is value to be had from a betting perspective. Here’s a closer look at both contests.
Manchester City vs. Arsenal
There aren’t many figures in world football who fit into the category of a purist more than Pep Guardiola and Arsene Wenger. As such, games between these two and their respective sides have always been must-match.
Sunday’s will be too, namely because it involves a Manchester City side that has taken the Premier League by storm this season. Just 10 games in, the Etihad Stadium club have rattled in 35 goals and conceded just six; while they started the last term with a swagger too, this early surge feels more significant.
Not only are they more secure in defence, they boast the attacking attributes needed to break down any opponent. Whether that be the vision of Kevin De Bruyne, raw speed of Leory Sane, guile of David Silva or predatory instincts of Sergio Aguero.
They also have Raheem Sterling, who is playing the best football of his career as things stand. In the summer he was linked with a move to Arsenal, in the past he has pulled Arsenal apart—as both a Liverpool and a City player—while this season in the Premier League he already has seven goals to his name.
Arsenal will need to be wary of his brilliant form and must head to the Etihad Stadium with defensive solidity as their modus operandi.
That’s not necessarily been the main strength of Wenger’s sides down the years, though here it’s imperative. The back three must remain intact, midfielders must track the runs of City players and everyone selected to feature in the XI must be willing to run themselves into the ground.
Alexis Sanchez will do that, especially against the side that tried to sign him last summer and is reported to still hold an interest in him. It’s the type of fixture his current employers will be desperate to see him stand up in.
Still, Arsenal have been slow out of the blocks in recent weeks, falling behind in their three games before the match with Red Star Belgrade. A slow start will be too tough for them to recover from against this irresistible City side.
Prediction: City 3-1 Arsenal
City to win and both teams to score (2.60 William Hill)
City to be leading after 30 minutes (2.60 Ladbrokes)
Raheem Sterling to score anytime (2.63 UniBet)
Chelsea vs. Manchester United
What City’s early-season form has done to the rest of the Premier League title challengers is leave them with little margin for error. So much so, if Guardiola’s side were to win on Sunday and either Chelsea or United were to lose, it’d be tough to see them making up the ground required in the title race.
Chelsea are already nine points behind the leaders and are struggling to scale the same heights as last season. Additionally, the Blues head into this one on the back of a hugely disappointing performance in the Champions League, as they lost 3-0 to Roma.
It’s a major test for Conte, who needs to negotiate his way past United on Sunday. Suddenly his defence looks ragged, his midfield flimsy and his attacking players are struggling to build relationships.
This version of Chelsea is the type of opponent that Mourinho will relish coming up against. His side will seek to spoil and rob the Blues of any momentum in the game. It’s a tactic that’s unlikely to go down well with the Stamford Bridge crowd, though one the Portuguese utilized to great effect when he was in charge of the London club.
On the pitch there’ll be two lads in red desperate to make a point against the champions too in Romelu Lukaku and Nemanja Matic.
It was Mourinho who actually allowed Lukaku to leave Chelsea in 2014 on a permanent basis, though the Blues dallied in their pursuit of the striker in the summer, allowing United to step in and snatch him from Everton. Meanwhile, Chelsea’s decision to sell Matic to the Old Trafford side was clearly a major error.
There’ll be a lot of focus on Lukaku, who has now gone six matches without a goal. The Belgian has failed to show his best in big games as of late and in these even affairs there’ll be an onus on him to make the difference. If he can do so, it’ll be a massive weight off his shoulders.
Even so, it’s easy to see this game declining into a tentative affair between two coaches who will be hesitant to let their attacking players off the shackles. While the day’s earlier game should be an aesthetic treat, this feels like 90 minutes in which both beasts will be waiting to see who blinks first.
Prediction: Chelsea 1-1 United
Under 2.5 goals (1.7 Marathon Bet)
Under 2.5 goals and draw (3.9 188 Bet)
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