European champions Portugal are locked in a fierce battle with Switzerland to win Group B of the World Cup qualifying stage and earn an automatic berth at Russia 2018. They have started well, but not as well as the Swiss, and desperately need to win as many games as possible. Good job then that they are up against Latvia in their next game, which they should win at a canter.
The Sarkanbaltsarkanie, led by manager Aleksandrs Starkovs, are ranked 111th in the world and have never once qualified for a World Cup. They are second bottom of Group G, having only taken three points from five games. That was a win against Andorra, the tiny nation between Spain and France, who are bottom of the group and without a single point. Latvia have already lost to the Faroe Islands in this group. They have also lost to Switzerland, Hungary and Portugal.
The Portuguese beat Latvia 4-1 in the Algarve back in November 2016 as Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice. The World Player of the Year was only denied a hat-trick because he missed a penalty, but William Carvalho and Bruno Alves made sure of the win. It was a total mismatch then, and it should prove so again in this game. Ronaldo is fresh from winning the Champions League, putting Juventus – the team with supposedly the best defence in Europe – to the sword with two superbly taken strikes. He will be up against Vitālijs Jagodinskis, who plays for Hungarian minnows Diósgyőr VTK, and 35-year-old Kaspars Gorkšs, recently seen playing for Colchester Utd.
There is no conceivable way that Latvia can win this game. They do not have a chance and it should be a mauling. It is no surprise that Portugal have been made 1/7 favourites with 888 Sport to win the game. They are just 1/10 at Ladbrokes and William Hill, among other green listed bookmakers. They established themselves as the best team in Europe by beating home favourites France in the final at Euro 2016, and have a squad bursting with talent. Qualification has not been entirely smooth as the lost their opening game to a strong Swiss side, who have since gone on to win their subsequent four games to top the group.
That was the post-Euro 2016 wake-up call Portugal needed and they have responded by winning their four ensuing games too. And they have won them emphatically. They beat Andorra 6-0, Latvia 4-1, Hungary 3-0 and Cyprus 4-0. Even if they do not win their group, they will likely qualify as one of the best performing runners-up, but they do not want to take any chances.
Ronaldo has already banged in nine goals in the five qualifiers and shows no signs of letting up, despite being 32 years old now. He has reinvented himself as the world’s deadliest goal poacher, and leads Robert Lewandowski and Romelu Lukaku as the top scorer in World Cup 2018 qualifiers. He is 1/3 at to score at any time in this match with Sky Bet and that looks like money in the bank. Bet365 is offering 15/4 on him scoring a hat-trick and that looks a really interesting bet. He really should run rings around Jagodinskis and Gorkšs after terrorising Giorgio Chiellini, Andrea Barzagli and Leonardo Bonucci in the Champions League, and scoring hat-tricks against Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich in previous rounds.
As for getting value out of this match, you cannot simply back Portugal. Backing them to win half-time/full-time is 8/15 with Coral and Ladbrokes and that also looks like a banker. For more value though you should look to handicap betting. Despite being away from home, there is no reason why the Portuguese should not enjoy a similar margin of victory as they did last time against the Latvians. Bet Victor has 21/20 on Portugal -2.5 Asian handicap, and that looks a good bet as they have been really steamrollering teams of late.
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