Friday
7.45pm Pool 4 Northampton v Leinster
This is a close pool. Leinster beat Castres at home, then lost in Monpellier, whilst Northampton beat Montpellier at home before being thrashed in France by Castres. With two points separating the four sides, try bonus points and losing bonus points in what are likely to be close games are going to be crucial for a pool where only one team is likely to go through (teams beating each other)
Northampton lie in the bottom half of the Aviva Premiership with 4 wins out of 10 games and have only scored two tries in the ERCC this year. Leinster by contrast, a side full of Irish internationals have won eight out of 10 and sit second in the Pro 12 league. This is likely to be a one score game. Leinster are 5/6 favourites, Northampton Evens in a pick’em game on the handicap. My preference is for Leinster, but it is marginal.
Saturday
1pm Pool 5 Ulster v Clermont Auvergne
Ulster are a formidable outfit at home, roared on by a partisan Belfast crowd and Clermont, like many French sides, aren’t the best travellers. These factors are going to be needed by Ulster, fifth in the pro 12, as Clermont (won 2 out of 2 in the ERCC scoring eleven tries to top the group after two rounds, and top of the French top 14 averaging nearly 30 points a game) look to be one of the top sides in this year’s competition
Ulster have been priced up as even money underdogs, Clermont 5/6 in a +/-1 point game on the handicap. Preference is for Clermont, but not a big bet as this is not an easy place to travel to and play
3.15pm Pool 1 Munster v Leicester
Hugely motivated by honouring the memory of recently deceased coach Anthony Foley Munster beat Glasgow 38-17 in their first game of the pool while Leicester were fine winners over Racing 92 at home having been comprehensively outplayed in Glasgow in their opening game
Munster is another tough place to go and get a result. Conditions in the West of Ireland can be difficult and the crowd is passionate. Munster lead the Pro 12 ahead of Leinster while Leicester are in fourth place in the Aviva Premiership and performances have been inconsistent. This clash is much anticipated because the two leading scrum-halves in the autumn internationals, Conor Murray and Ben Youngs, rivals for the Lions starting number 9 jersey next summer, are in opposition
Munster should win this game but at 4/9 (Leicester 15/8) are priced to do so. Munster -6 at 10/11 gives something to go at. I expect them to win by more than a score.
4.15pm Pool 1 Racing92 v Glasgow Warriors
After the postponement of their first game, last season’s ERCC runners-up lost at Leicester but should be a far more effective team in Paris. Glasgow have talent, and form the core of the improving Scottish national team but are 4/1 to get a result in Paris, the hosts 1/6. Racing should indeed win, Glasgow’s best hope a losing bonus point but quotes of +/- 14 on the points handicap don’t point to that. No bet for me
5.30pm Pool 3 Saracens v Sale Sharks
The reigning ERCC champions won at Toulon then beat the Scarlets at home and are favourites to retain trophy this year. Top of the Aviva premiership table too, they are the strongest game favourites on the ERCC slate of pool games this weekend against fellow English side Sale are 10th in the Aviva and have lost both their games in the European competition this season.
Saracens are 1/19, Sale 11/1 and the visitors get a whopping 24 point start on the points handicap. Not a game I will be betting, but Saracens should win very comfortably.
8.45pm Pool 2 Zebre v Toulouse
Zebre, one of two Italian teams sitting at the bottom of the Pro 12, are the weakest team in the ERCC and have conceded a huge 20 tries in their two matches in Europe this season. They are a forlorn hope to do anything other than finish bottom of their pool. Toulouse doesn’t look to be the strongest French team, lost in Connact first up then drew at home to Wasps but will be too strong here.
Of course this is factored into prices, Toulouse are 1/25 and -22 on the points handicap at 10/11. I expect them to cover, even away from home.
Sunday
1pm Pool 2 Wasps v Connacht
This is a key game in Pool 2. Connacht won the Pro 12 last year and have played 2 won 2 so far in this season’s ERCC, but this is their toughest test against the pool favourites. Wasps need to win, preferably denying the visitors a losing bonus point ahead of the reverse fixture in Galway that is likely to decide the pool.
Domestic form doesn’t point to anything other than a home win. Connacht are not the force of last year, lying 8th (of 12) in the Pro 12 league while Wasps are second only to Saracens in the Aviva Premiership.
Wasps are 1/5 outright here and -14 on the point handicap. A high scoring team with potent attacking ability they could well cover.
2pm Pool 4 Montpellier v Castres
In the Northampton/Leinster group the two teams from the South of France are both played 2 won 1. Montpellier are the stronger of these two teams, sitting second in the French top 14 but Castres are an improved outfit this year, only four points behind Montpellier in fifth.
Outrights for the game: Montpellier 4/11 Castres 23/10, and +/- 8 on the point spread. I favour Montpellier to cover.
4.15pm Pool 3 Toulon v Scarlets
The Scarlets from Wales have a tough task going to two-time winners Toulon and hoping to get a result. Toulon have established a recent pattern of scraping through groups and then coming on strong in the knock out stages, lost their opening game in a classic to Saracens and then won in Sale 15-5 while the Scarlets beat Sale at home before struggling at Saracens
Toulon are 1/7 for the game Scarlets 9/2 and Toulon -15 on the handicap. No bet for me
5.30pm Pool 5 Exeter Chiefs v Bordeaux-Begles
In one of the more even pools, Exeter have lost both games. They have scored only one try in the process. Firstly they were beaten by Clermont at home before agonizingly losing by a point in Ulster in Round 2. This is getting into must win territory.
Bordeaux-Begles beat Ulster at home then conceded 49 points losing to Clermont in round 2. They should be beatable by a rugged team like Exeter.
The market agrees. Exeter are best priced 3/10 for the game, Bordeaux 11/4 and +9 on the points handicap. Exeter are not prolific enough scorers to take -9 with any confidence, so a watching brief for me.
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