The matches this weekend, at neutral venues in the home country of one of the semi-finalists, are as follows. Prices are courtesy of Bet365.
Fifteen of the 42 semi-final matches in the history of the European cup have been won by the ‘away’ club, only a 36% success rate. This is something for both Saracens and Leinster to overcome this weekend.
Munster v Saracens (Saturday 22nd April, Dublin)
This could well be a close game for a long way, in part because Saracens’ Owen Farrell and Munster\’s Tyler Bleyendaal are such accomplished goal-kickers and this season’s tournament top scorers with 97 and 94 points respectively.
Saracens are the ERCC holders and dispatched Glasgow with ease in their home quarter-final, winning 38-13. Currently third in their domestic league the Aviva Premiership they have prioritized Europe.
Probably the best team in Europe, they are and should be favourites here despite having to play an Irish province in Dublin.
Munster are having a fine season but what quality of opposition are they beating? Their ERCC group was significantly weaker than Saracens and here they are without their famed home advantage that makes them almost unbeatable in Limerick. Here they meet a formidable team. I don\’t expect Saracens to freeze. Doubts over the fitness of Conor Murray, Munster’s world class scrum half makes me skeptical.
I will be backing Saracens at 8/13outright ( Munster 11/8), quarter-final Saracens -3 at 10/11 with green listed bookmaker is a viable alternative too.
Clermont Auvergne v Leinster (Sunday 23rd April, Lyon)
Clermont,2nd in the domestic top 14 dispatched Toulon 29-9 in their home quarter-final where they are a formidable proposition, on a tight ground roared on by passionate fans. Here they are without that advantage in Lyon.
Leinster, top of the Pro 12 having won 17 out of 20 games this season beat Wasps 32-17 in quarter-final but, with the draw for the knockout stages set before that stage, now have to goto France to play the top seeds in the tournament
Leinster have been at the forefront of the renaissance of the Irish provinces in Europe this season and are an experienced side that forms the bulk of the Irish national team.
Normally Clermont find a way to blow it late in European competitions but I have to support them as narrow favourites here, 8/13 and -3 at 10/11.
Calculators
