There was a time before the X-box generation even realised they had opposable thumbs, that England-Scotland fixtures were to be hugely anticipated. Two blood and thunder sides who would have a right ding dong on the pitch – and maybe off it as well.
But that was a long time ago. Two of the most famous nations to have played the game have been left behind. While everyone was spinning in the revolution, England and Scotland were stuck in the past, reckoning they knew best.
So forgive us for previewing a match which couldn’t entice a purist from across the road to watch it. But it is a corker of a betting heat.
Granted that is because these are two pedestrian teams who have similar characteristics. Neither are going to win any award for attacking aplomb. They are pedestrian and staid. In these words lie our edge. We know exactly what we are going to get.
England is 1.36 (at both of this green listed bookmakers Bet365, Ladbrokes). This is a truly awful price about a team low on confidence and quality. Scotland is 10.5 (Marathon) and the draw is 4.8 (BetVictor, Sportingbet).
Gareth Southgate’s team top Group F of World Cup qualifying. They scraped a win in the one and only match under Sam Allardyce’s tutelage with a last-gasp winner against Slovakia. Then they laboured to a win against Malta in a warning of a real stinker to come against Slovenia.
There have been only three goals in those games. Scotland’s matches have seen more. They hit five against that Malta team. But then the worm turned. They failed to beat Lithuania at home and then they were thumped 3-0 by Slovakia.
But we’re not too worried about Scotland’s form. We know they will be desperate for a performance at Wembley in front of 13,000 fans. And manager Gordon Strachan and manager Mark McGhee, who have both been there, done it and flogged the t-shirt, will have to have a lobotomy apiece to fail to implement a plan to frustrate the home team.
The terrace parlance is ‘park the bus’. While Strachan and McGhee will refrain from using such terminology they will instruct their players to, essentially, remain rigid in formation, harry and hassle England giving them no time on the ball and stick one man up front who will expect to give chase all night long to balls punted into the channels.
Slovakia did it rather well. Slovenia was a bit more adventurous and probably should have pinched the win. Before them, Iceland did it brilliantly in the Euros and Slovakia (again) in the same competition did it to gain a draw. England is easy to play against if all you want is a draw. Hell, you may even end up with better than that.
So where does this leave us with odds? Well, the first prices to point out bearing in mind goals will surely be in short supply are 1-0 England and no goalscorer bets. The former is 6 with William Hill and the latter (remember an own goal lets you off the hook) is 10 with Skybet, Stan James, William Hill and Betway.
There are far, far worse bets than snaffling the 21 from Paddy Power that Scotland grabs it 1-0, as well. A 2-1 away win is 34 (BetVictor, Unibet, 888Sport). A 2-1 home win is 9.5 (BetVictor).
Any bigger margins than the odd goal does not make a huge amount of sense considering the history. These are passionate, chaotic and nervy occasions and there have been few head-to-heads when one team has run away with it.
From 1981 to 1988 only once did one rival manage to win by more than one goal – England in 1983. And that is seven games’ worth of study. How relevant forms that long ago, you say? Well, we reckon that those were the dark ages and these two have been sent back there.
Next stop is the over/under market. And going under 2.5 goals looks the shrewdest move of the night. Okay, the odds aren’t worth writing home about but the 1.88 with 188Bet could be considered a bit of a rick with the majority chalking up lower than 1.85.
Calculators
