Juventus take a comfortable 2-0 win into the second leg of their Champions League last 16 tie with Porto and know that a draw or even a 1-0 defeat will be good enough to see them through. There may exist a temptation to play with caution and sit back, but the Barcelona-PSG game should serve as a warning to any club going into a second leg tie trying to protect a lead.
PSG won 4-0 in the first leg of their tie with Barca and looked as good as through to the next round. They turned up at the Nou Camp knowing even a 3-0 defeat would be good enough to see them into the quarter-finals. PSG sat back and let Barcelona dictate the play, and it backfired spectacularly. They were 2-0 down at half-time, and even a precious away goal could not save them as they succumbed to four second-half strikes, lost 6-1 on the night and 6-5 on aggregate.
If Juventus had any plans to approach this match in a similar fashion to PSG, that result should have sparked a rethink. Porto started the first leg very well and were on top until they went down to 10 men, and understandably lost. If Juventus are not bold here, Porto will give them a real fright. But Juventus are certainly the best team, collectively and blessed with more top notch individuals, so if they approach it correctly they will win this, and they really should avoid playing for a draw.
Therefore the 1.66 available on a Juventus win at William Hill and green listed bookmakers Coral looks a good bet. It is risky as if they are drawing with 10 minutes to go Juventus are not exactly going to go for broke in a bid to score a winner, as they would know they are well ahead on aggregate. But Porto will have to come out and attack Juventus, and that could play into the hands of the Italian league leaders.
They are superb defensively and can soak up pressure and then be devastating going forwards, with Gonzalo Higuain and Paula Dybala always ready to pounce. At home Juventus are superb: they are unbeaten in front of their home fans in 18 months and have won all 13 Serie A home games this season. Porto are doing well in the Portuguese top flight, but the standard there is pretty poor. If you judge them on their away performances in the Champions League, they won just one of three in the group stage, and that is not a great return when you consider that their group contained Leicester, Brugge and Copenhagen – possibly the easiest group of the lot.
If you want more value you might be tempted to push it out to Juventus -1 Asian handicap. That way if they only win by one you get a refund. But if they win by two or more, you get paid out on odds of 2.23 with Bet Victor. That looks a compelling proposition as Juventus have been winning their home games by two clear goals regularly of late. But given the fact that the aggregate score is already in their favour, it is a risky option.
On the goal scorer betting, it is hard to look past Dybala right now. The less heralded of the two Juventus Argentinian strikers, he has only notched eight goals to Higuain’s 19 in the league this season, but he is in red-hot form at the moment. He has scored five goals in his last six games and banged in the winner against Milan at the weekend, and looks a good option at 2.75 with Sky Bet and Bet Stars to score at any time in this game.
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