The draw for the Champions League semi-finals has been made and Real Madrid and Juventus are the sides most likely to meet in this year’s showpiece according to the bookmakers.
Real play La Liga rivals Atletico while Juventus take on freescoring Monaco. Real are 2.75 with BetVictor, Paddy Power, Stan James and Bwin with Juve 2.93 with Marathon. Atletico (with almost all green listed bookies) are 9 and Monaco are the same price with Bet365 and BetVictor.
Those are two hot favourites to make the final right there. But will it be as cut and dried? It is a clash of styles which could make for a topsy-turvy semi-final stage.
That’s because it pits goalscoring prowess against defensive misers. Real are gung-ho while Atletico? Not so much.
Juventus, surprise surprise for an Italian team, are obsessed with defending and keeping out goals. They shall not pass and in the time-honoured Italian way do anything to ensure they are not breached. This will severely test Monaco, who were perhaps fortunate to run into a Borrusia Dortmund team badly affected by a terrorist attack on their team bus.
The stats reveal how much of a battle it will be between the two philosophies. Real and Madrid have scored, on average, 2.10 and 2.80 goals per game in the tournament this term. That is as you would expect of the Spanish giants but Monaco’s forward play has been scintillating.
By contrast Atletico and Juve are relatively shot-shy. Atletico average 1.30 goals per game. That is a slightly surprising stat in the context of where we are at in the completion and considering the ability of players like Antoine Griezmann. Juve, another surprise this, fare better with 1.7 goals per game.
The difference in defences is stark. Real and Monaco concede 1.6 and 1.5 goals per game. Atletico and Juve average 0.5 and 0.2. Maybe the last-four matches could be terribly dull affairs where the sides cancel each other out?
From this analysis it is clear that the team facing the stiffest challenge is Atletico. They have a mean defence and (of the four) an underperforming attack. Indeed, would a team of the class of Real really have huffed and puffed as much as they did against a frenetic, impassioned but ultimately limited Leicester team? Probably they would have beaten them out of sight.
So our early thoughts are that Real are as good as in the final, particularly as they recorded a handsome 3-0 win at Atletico earlier in the La Liga season. Real are 1.57 (BetVictor) to get there, Juve 1.4 (32Red), Atletico 2.35 (32Red) and Monaco 3.25 (BetVictor).
That leaves us eyeing an upset with Monaco. We would be clinging to hope that Juve don’t sit back and nullify their aggressive and fast running. A final of Real-Monaco comes in at 5.5 with Ladbrokes. For the two jollies to make it you’re looking at a 2.1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) chance.
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