The Champions League is getting to the nitty gritty now and there are a couple of good punting opportunities on Wednesday night.
Leicester City travels to Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich host Spanish giants Real Madrid. Both home teams are considered relative shoo-ins for victory.
Atletico are no better than 1.3 with green listed bookmaker (Bet365, William Hill, Stan James, Coral). Bayern are 1.8 with Bet365.
So with big odds available on the visitors, can we find a way to get with one of them or both?
First off Leicester. We have been down on Leicester for most of the season, reckoning that one of these days they were going to come to a real cropper against quality opposition.
Under Claudio Ranieri, they thought it was okay to turn it on in the Champions League but not domestically. That was a recipe for disaster for us because we though ‘hang on, teams don’t decide when to be at full pelt, they need to do it all the time’.
Considering they have made it to the last eight and that Ranieri has gone, we may have to think again. Under Craig Shakespeare, they have shown a real hunger and desire.
Leicester are 13 (Bet365, 32Red) for victory with the draw 6.2 (Marathon). And although both may be beyond them, there is a reason to believe that they can get an all-important away goal.
The Foxes are a threat going forward and the Atletico possession-based game could play perfectly into the counter-attacking style of their opponents. There could be huge spaces for Jamier Vardy to maraud into. So the 2.5 that both team goals score looks a winner with William Hill.
There are some stats to back that up. Leicester have needed only five chances per goal in the Champions League this season compared to eight for Atletico. So they are hardly impotent.
In addition, Atletico do give opportunities. Their goalkeeper has had to make six saves per goal as opposed to 2.25 for Leicester. The visitors’ shot accuracy is also superior.
Real are 4.85 (Marathon) to win at Bayern. The initial reaction is that’s value. But Bayern just doesn\’t get beat at home, although Real won four-zip there in 2014.
What could be key is the loss of Bayern defender Mats Hummels. It is true that Bayern’s win percentage is identical with and without him this term. But what against quality opposition like this?
Real have won six of their last seven and we have seen far worse 4.85 shots around that this lot. We are happy to side with them as our ‘long shot’ for the night while playing a little safer on the Foxes.
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