This bottom of the table clash pits two struggling teams against one another in a crucial game for Bulgaria and Belarus. They have already fallen well behind joint group leaders France and Sweden, and they desperately need to start amassing points if they are to have any chance of qualifying for the World Cup in Russia in 2018.
Older Bulgarians will fondly remember the glory days of Hristo Stoichkov and Yordan Letchkov when Bulgaria surprised everyone by reaching the semi-finals of USA 1994. The current side is a long way off that swashbuckling group that captured the hearts of neutrals. Dimitar Berbatov carried them along for several years, but he has long since retired and they lack star quality. They have failed to qualify for a major tournament since Euro 2004 and they have fallen to 89th in the FIFA world rankings, sandwiched in between minnows Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
Belarus has never established itself as a footballing heavyweight and has hardly produced any famous players of note, so its fans are less expectant. They have never qualified for a major tournament, and that does not look like changing in 2018. It is an extremely difficult group, with France and Sweden top on seven points apiece, followed by the Netherlands on four points, Belarus on four points and Luxembourg on one. France and the Netherlands are genuine footballing powerhouses and most would expect them to qualify, although Sweden may throw a spanner in the works. That makes it very tough for the other three, but they are giving it all they’ve got. The most notable result was Belarus’ 0-0 draw with Euro 2016 finalists France. Sadly for them, it was followed by a 4-1 defeat to Holland and a 1-1 draw against the tiny Luxembourg, although they did bounce back with a 1-0 friendly win over Greece in their last game.
Bulgaria are a crazily entertaining team to watch because they play such reckless, gung-ho football. It has seen them concede goals at an alarming rate. Their last five games have seen 28 goals. Unfortunately for them, they only scored seven of them and conceded 21. They managed a 4-3 win over Luxembourg but lost 4-1 to France and 3-0 to Sweden. Another recent game saw them lose 7-2 to Japan. An average of 5.6 goals per game in their last five matches is virtually unheard of in football.
For that reason, you would expect goals in this game. You can get 2.38 on over 2.5 goals, which looks an absolutely fantastic price given the way Bulgaria have been shipping goals. Granted, Belarus’ last five games have only seen 1.6 goals per game, but if you balance it out you would still expect to see over 2.5.
That looks more interesting than going for an outright prediction on win, lose or draw, as these teams are pretty evenly matched. Another option would be both teams to score, which is 2.10 among green listed bookmakers and also looks good.
Ivelin Popov is Bulgaria’s main goal threat in this post-Berbatov era and has notched 11 international goals in his career. Belarus will struggle to keep him quiet and the 2.10 on him scoring at any time looks decent value. Another player in with a great chance of getting on the score sheet is Belarus midfielder Pavel Savitskiy, who has netted three times in his last five internationals and will relish the chance to run at this creaking Bulgaria defense. He is 4.33 to score at any time.
Calculators
