The Bangladesh Premier League is underway, and despite two recent washouts without a ball being bowled, it is proving fertile ground for punters who like their trends and there are profitable betting odds to be had at green-listed bookmakers.
Often you might hear of gamblers or tipsters talking about a foolproof system. Often you might react with a sneer or guffaw. But in Bangladesh there is one which is working very well, and pretty much always has: bet the side batting second.
In the 14 completed matches so far, ten have been won by the side batting second. That is a heavy bias for Twenty20 matches where anything is supposed to happen, and usually does.
The trend can be explained by two things. Firstly, there is the possibility of the dew factor making it much harder for the team defending a score to grip the slippery ball in the field. It can be like a bar of soap. So fielders fumble and give away crucial extra runs. And more importantly, bowlers find it hard to be as accurate.
The wickets themselves can be a little sluggish, too. And that it makes it tougher for the side batting first who are keen to set the tempo and put the bowling team immediately under pressure. They go too hard, they go home.
On Friday there are two matches scheduled. The Sylhet Sixers take on the Rajshahi Kings and the Khulna Titans play the Chittagong Vikings. Both are set to be staged in Dhaka.
The Titans v Vikings game is more likely to be affected by the two factors we have discussed. It is the later game of the two, beginning at 19.00 local time. With a game already having taken place the team that loses the toss (and surely the winner will choose to chase) will almost certainly find it hard.
The bookies are aware of this. There is not too much to choose between the two with the layers wary that the coin flip is huge. Stan James go -137 about the Titans while Betfair and Paddy Power offer +120 about the Vikings.
For the sake of value, we can tell you now that the Vikings are the bet. That’s because, really, this should be a choice affair with -120 available about the both. The coin toss is a fifty-fifty outcome after all.
We wouldn’t rebuke you for betting Vikings now but it is most wise to wait for the toss. Whoever wins the toss will shorten. If it’s Vikings they will probably come into -120 while the Titans will get skinnier. Moving forward, though, it is wise to keep the toss bias on your side.
Calculators
