The start of the Premiership season is still three weeks away but already green listed bookmakers have released lines of who will be the first manager to leave his post. You typically see several managers relieved of their duties before Christmas as nervous owners start to fear relegation and pull the trigger in a bid to stave off the financial pain that comes with dropping down to the Championship. You also see managers walking away if they are not given enough backing in the transfer market before the window slams shut on September 1, and current frontrunner Rafa Benitez could fit into that category. Here we assess the leading contenders:
Rafa Benitez
The Newcastle boss is 3/1 favourite with Sky Bet but as low as 6/4 with William Hill, Bet Victor and Betway after he expressed his frustration with the club’s summer transfer dealings. He has publicly blamed the “crazy market” rather than pointing the finger at his club’s negotiators but will be disappointed after missing out on top targets. He was promised every penny the club generates in order to bolster his squad, but there has been little activity thus far, and Benitez, a proud man, is liable to walk away if he feels he does not have an adequate enough squad to keep Newcastle up. It might be worth keeping an eye on the Magpies’ transfer dealings and backing him if there are too few quality signings.
Slaven Bilic
The West Ham boss looks an intriguing option at 6/1 with Bet Victor after he spent the majority of last campaign among the favourites to be the next manager axed but somehow clung onto his job. West Ham’s transfer dealings have been much better this summer, with the likes of Joe Hart, Marko Arnautovic and Javier Hernandez set to really improve the first team with strength and goals. But if the results do not improve, Bilic will be replaced by someone perceived as better qualify to set the Hammers on an upwards trajectory.
Mark Hughes
Stoke are in a similar situation to West Ham: languishing in lower mid-table mediocrity despite being ambitious in the transfer market. Hughes has been in charge for a while but the Potters’ hierarchy could decide a change is right if Stoke do not start the season well. He is 15/2 with Betway, but there are currently better options out there.
Antonio Conte
Conte won the title last season and is unlikely to be sacked. He is also unlikely to walk away after just signing an improved contract and seeing his club fork out £100 million for Alvaro Morata and Timoue Bakayoko to improve his side, so he looks a poor option at 12/1 with William Hill.
Craig Shakespeare
Another at 12/1 with William Hill is the Leicester boss, who managed to vastly improve the team’s results after replacing Claudio Ranieri last season. It is little more
than a year ago that the Foxes were crowned Premiership champions so the pressure will be on Shakespeare to produce results, but again he looks a poor choice in this market as he is likely to be given time to put his stamp on things at the King Power.
The Rest
There are more intriguing options further down the field, as it is often the clubs in the greatest danger of being relegated that blink first and sack their managers. It might pay to rule out Tony Pulis of West Brom (16/1) as he is too wily and will get results. But Marco Silva (14/1) of Watford, Frank De Boer of Crystal Palace (16/1) and Paul Clement of Swansea (16/1) all look interesting options. Watford normally give their managers a year before sacking them, while De Boer could be a hit at Selhurst Park, but Clement looks a great bet at 16/1. Swansea sacked two managers in the previous season and only just beat the drop. They are a trigger-happy club and they do not have a particularly exciting group of players, while their summer signings have not set the world alight, so Clement looks an interesting choice. Another option would be Davi Wagner at Huddersfield. If they end up losing their first, say, eight games in a row, he could be relieved of his duties.
Calculators
