When Australia meet New Zealand in the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy – a three-match ODI series which begins on Sunday – the home team’s batsmen will be expected to make the difference between victory and defeat.
But here’s the thing. In the last five years, the Aussie willow men have struggled to impose themselves against the Kiwi attack. In five meetings, no one has scored a century and of available players only two (David Warner and Usman Khawaja) average more than 40 – the benchmark for a stellar performance.
This interests us for two reasons. Firstly, Australia are short-short-short to win the thing. They are 1.4 with Betfred and Coral. New Zealand are 3.5 (Ladbrokes). Yet the odds are the way they are – as we said at the top of the show – because Australia have a much stronger batting line-up.
But the numbers just aren’t there. It further reinforces the view – not that commonly held because the Kiwis are seen as unfashionable and ‘small time’ – that the tourists’ attack is as good as Australia’s.
Perhaps most interestingly, it opens up the top Australia series runscorer market. David Warner is the 3.85 among green listed bookmakers like Unibet, 32Red and 888Sport jolly. Fair enough, not a price we’d ordinarily take. Prior to delving into the stats, one would have reckoned that Aaron Finch, Steve Smith and George Bailey all had sound chances.
Finch, as Warner’s, opening partner, is as muscle-bound as they come and is the No 2-rated T20 hitter. He is brutal on anything short and once set – admittedly he can be a tricky starter – he can destroy a team. Smith’s class has shone through for a while and he is one place ahead of Finch at 16 on the rankings list.
Bailey, measured and mean, is the man for all conditions and comes in at No 18. Australia have more batsmen in the top 20 than any other team. Warner, for the record, is No 3.
But would you back Finch at 4.5 (Unibet, 32Red, 888Sport) knowing that his average against the Kiwis is just seven? Would you back Smith at 4.25 with the same firm knowing that his average was a thoroughly mediocre 25? Or Bailey at 6.5 (Bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power, Unibet, 32Red, 888Sport) with a mark of just 22?
Nope. It would appear that Warner has very little to beat. That’s a major surprise. And it may well come as a major shock to anyone who has bet Aussie with a big wallet at terrible odds.
The Kiwi market seems to be a straight shootout between Martin Guptill and Kane Williamson. With Ross Taylor absent and an audition taking place for middle-order spots, it would be a major surprise if either one didn’t take the top spot.
Guptill is 4.5 (Unibet, 32Red, 888Sport) and Williamson 3.75 (Unibet, 32Red, 888Sport). Guptill is rated No 8 in the world and Williamson No 5. They have almost identical records against the Aussies in the last five years with averages of 35 and 38 respectively. You can bet both in safety.
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