One of the most popular bets, according to the odds comparison sites, for the third Ashes Test between Australia and England at the Waca ground in Perth, which starts early Thursday, is Alastair Cook to be top England runscorer in the first-innings.
Now, what would possess the masses to suddenly plump for a guy who has been close to hopeless on tour so far? Cook has only 62 runs in the series, has not passed 37 and has been twice out for single-digit scores.
It’s the old emotional punt, that’s why. Cook will play his 150th Test at the Waca. It’s a phenomenal achievement but one which should not mean he is more or less likely to score runs than the previous 149 matches. He won’t be trying any harder, in other words.
There is a long history of bettors reckoning that the athlete set for the individual milestone will produce one of their finest performances. It rarely turns out that way. Cook is 5 (William Hill) for honours in Perth.
It’s a poor wager. Cook has for some time looked like a man whose time is running out at the top level. His weakness outside off-stump, which has plagued him throughout an admittedly stellar career, has returned. And this is one run drought he may not emerge from.
Last summer he was unconvincing against South Africa and West Indies, and if we ignore his 243 against the latter (a terribly weak attack), then he is actually averaging a paltry 25 in the last 12 months. Apart from that 243 he has passed fifty twice.
Nasser Hussain, the England captain, says that only a fool would write off Cook. Surely a fool would ignore such overwhelming statistical fact. So, how can we get against him?
Well, one option is to bet Joe Root for top runscorer honours. Pre-series, Cook appeared to be the only threat, apart from Root himself, to the Yorkshireman outscoring team-mates with regularity. And the Waca wicket should suit his back-foot game. He is 4 with Ladbrokes and Coral.
You can also go under Cook’s first-innings runs at 29.5 with Betfair’s Sportsbook. Remember that 25-run average ignoring the Windies score. The odds are -1.8 and although that seems skinny, it promises to be one of the best bets of the Test.
For the Aussies, David Warner loves the wicket in Perth and has a phenomenal record there (three centuries and two fifties) which makes odds look generous indeed.
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