The Ashes series is proving to be what punters hate. Uncompetitive. After just two matches Australia hold a 2-0 lead and the prospect of two dead matches in the five-game series looks real indeed.
Following their convincing win in Adelaide, Australia will be chuffed to head to Peth’s WACA ground next, where they have been hammering English tourists since time began. England have not won there since 1978. Some of you, dear readers, probably weren’t even alive when England last one a Test in Western Australia.
Their record, when you break it down, is extraordinarily grim. England have won once in 13, drawing three. They have managed more than 350 only once since 1986. That was on their last visit when they squeezed out 353 in the fourth-innings in an irrelevant chase of 504. And the margins of defeats? They’re huge – 150 runs, 267 runs, 206 runs, innings and 48 runs, seven wickets, 329 runs and nine wickets.
Not surprisingly, then. We expect Australia to comfortably win game three. The 1.5 that Ladbrokes and Coral is not the sort of price that is going to excite anyone but big hitters. But Australia will almost certainly go off shorter than that before ball one in 12 days’ time.
If that’s not for you, then the smart money is taking the correct series score bet of a 5-0 Australia whitewash now. With Australia’s record in Perth so good, or rather England’s so bad, then 3.75 (Paddy Power) that you snaffle now will look monstrous by the time of the Boxing Day Test at the MCG.
While on the hunt for value, we’re also taken by the 121 that Stan James offer about Craig Overton finishing as England’s top series bowler. He is only four wickets behind James Anderson, the leader, on eight. And two of the three final venues seem to suit his bowling style far more than Anderson.
Anderson took five wickets in Australia’s second innings at Adelaide. But he will do well to match such a feat again. Indeed, it was his first five-for Down Under. Elsewhere he won’t get swing or seam, his stock in trade.
Instead, those who hit the bat hard and are able to get the ball to rear up are dangerous. Overton fits the bill. He was the only positive for England from their Adelaide horror show and he also seems to have developed an off-cutter, which foxed Steve Smith.
Oddly for such a big-priced bet then, he doesn;’t have much to beat. Anderson looks a busted flush while Stuart Broad is not bowling wicket-taking balls. He has been asked to keep one end tight and bore Australia into submission. It’s not working and therefore he has only one more wicket than Overton in twice the game time.
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