UFC 287 First Look: Pereira vs. Adesanya Betting Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Our Top Betting Pick for UFC 287

UFC Pick: Adesanya ML (-137) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Adesanya ML (-137)

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Florida spring break won’t be the only party in Miami this month as the Ultimate Fighting Championship arrives at the Miami-Dade Arena for UFC 287 and one of the most highly anticipated championship rivalries in recent history.

Israel Adesanya will face a long-standing foe in Alex Pereira and attempt to reclaim his position as the UFC middleweight king. Brazil and Nigeria go head-to-head in the Magic City, but who will prevail?

Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 287 main event clash between Adesanya and Pereira, including updated odds from the best US sports betting sites and our free expert betting picks, predictions, and analysis.

Adesanya Moneyline Reasoning

While Pereira’s power and forward pressure were evidently a dangerous factor in the first meeting, Adesanya was three minutes away from retaining the middleweight championship after a convincing performance that was stolen from him by the power of “Poatan.”

It is difficult to envision Pereira’s power dictating the result again. I expect he’ll be technically outwitted and fall short on the scorecards as he would have without the fifth-round stoppage last time out.

• Confidence Rating: 3/5

UFC 287 Information

• When: Saturday, April 08, 2023 – 10:00 PM EDT
• Where: Kaseya Center, Florida
• Scheduled Bouts: 13
• Main Event: Alex Pereira (C) vs. Israel Adesanya II [UFC Middleweight Championship]
• Moneyline Probability: Adesanya – 57.8% (-137) Pereira – 46.1% (+117)
• Totals Probability: Over 4.5 – 50% (+100) Under 4.5 – 56.5% (-130)

UFC 287 Pereira vs. Adesanya II: Tale of the Tape

Alex “Poatan” Pereira

Becoming a kickboxing legend didn’t satisfy Alex Pereira enough; he wanted to prove to the world that he was the most dangerous fighter in all combat sports. And he sure achieved this when dethroning the former undefeated middleweight champion of three years, Israel Adesanya, at UFC 281 last November.

However, “Poatan” didn’t just capture the gold from a nemesis he’d built a rivalry with from their respective kickboxing days long before tackling pro-MMA. He took the strap with a mere seven bouts on his record and three UFC wins to his name.

Pereira has shot into the spotlight and is now regarded as one of the most dangerous strikers in UFC middleweight history. Brute power and unforgiving forward pressure with no fear have positioned the intimidating Brazilian at the top of the 185lb weight class, but can the KO artist do the unthinkable and deliver Adesanya back-to-back stoppage losses in the UFC octagon?

Alex Pereira Combat Sports Accomplishments

• UFC Middleweight Champion (One time, current)
• UFC Performance of the Night (Three times)
• 2021 Glory Light Heavyweight Champion (Kickboxing)
• 2019 Glory Interim Light Heavyweight Champion (Kickboxing)
• 2017 Glory Middleweight Champion (Five defenses)
• 2014 Glory Middleweight Contender Tournament Winner
• 2015 WGP Kickboxing Middleweight Champion
• 2012 WGP -85 kg/187 lb Championship

Best Moneyline Odds: Pereira (+117) at BetOnline

Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya

Israel Adesanya was 22 minutes deep into a war with Alex Pereira and just three minutes shy of retaining his middleweight championship for a sixth consecutive time. The judges’ scorecards unquestionably supported Adesanya’s technical striking output he’d delivered for four successive rounds until the MMA community witnessed the unthinkable.

Pereira delivered a powerful combination, and it was enough for the referee to step in; many argued it was an early stoppage, but Adesanya's lack of response sealed his fate. Could this genuinely be the end of Adesanya’s reign at the top?

It’s difficult to ignore the past success of Adesanya and believe the story ends here. He’s fought through a collection of well-versed mixed martial artists and proved that a world-class striking offense could prevail when matched with a noteworthy grappling defense.

The same cannot be said for Pereira, who evidently lacks in the grappling department, but has “The Last Stylebender” finally met his kryptonite? – a fellow and former kickboxing foe in “Poatan” that can overcome technical prowess with power and heart.

Israel Adesanya Combat Sports Accomplishments

• UFC Middleweight Champion (One time, five defenses)
• UFC Performance of the Night (Five times)
• UFC Fight of the Night (Two times)
• Most knockdowns in a UFC title fight (4)
• Second longest win streak in UFC middleweight division history (12)
• Second most title fight defenses in UFC middleweight division history (7)

Best Moneyline Odds: Adesanya (-137) at Heritage Sports

UFC 287 Main Event Fight Statistics

• Adesanya owns a significant strike rate of 50% (14 UFC bouts)
• Pereira has landed 59% of his significant strikes in the UFC (4 UFC bouts)
• Adesanya has absorbed 2.8 strikes per minute from 14 UFC bouts
• Pereira has absorbed 3.63 strikes per minute from 4 UFC bouts

UFC 287 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights

We saw it coming for many years, but nobody could’ve predicted how much excitement the inter-sport rivalry between former kickboxing champions Pereira and Adesanya would generate. After collecting the UFC middleweight title, Pereira is now 3-0 versus Adesanya across both sports, but what have we learned from those bouts?

Pereira’s power cannot be underestimated, and Adesanya is undoubtedly the more technically sound striker of the two. Many critics also believe Adesanya was robbed in the first kickboxing bout, and he was also winning the second kickboxing bout until the same story from their UFC clash unfolded as the power of “Poatan” proved too much.

Regarding Saturday’s fourth meeting, it’s difficult to overlook Pereira’s power. But can he find the kill shot against the elusive and top-tier range control Adesanya consistently displays? I don’t think so. Adesanya’s counterstriking, switching of stance, accuracy, and timing make him one of the world’s most dangerous strikers.

The only advantages Pereira owns are power and mental, and neither of these warrants another fade on Adesanya. He has more paths to victory; he’s the more talented kickboxer skill-for-skill, but should Adesanya lose via another KO/TKO, it wouldn’t be surprising; we just can’t continue to bank on Pereira executing those kill shots – especially after he achieved it last time with just 3 minutes remaining.

Adesanya Moneyline: The UFC 287 Best Bet Formula

The available UFC odds at Bookmakers Review favor Adesanya, and I’m not surprised. Perhaps Pereira does have Adesanya’s number, but when you break these fighters down, betting on Pereira would involve a belief system detrimental in MMA wagering where you’re risking money based on longshot factors such as power, rather than picking the more talented mixed martial artist.

A similar comparison can be made to Francis Ngannou or Deontay Wilder, where devastating KO power can take a fighter beyond the realms of face value analysis. Still, when the kill shot is eventually nullified, a technically sound striker or grappler will prevail.

We’re not going against logic this weekend; on paper, Adesanya is the fighter worth betting on at the current price of -137. Anything beyond -160, however, I believe the value could be argued in favor of Pereira. Luckily for us, the intimidating factor of Pereira is swaying the line; let’s just hope technical ability can prevail this weekend, and Adesanya isn’t mentally restrained by his Brazilian nemesis.

UFC 287 Best Bet: Adesanya ML (-137) at BetOnline [1.37u to win 1u]

UFC 287 Main Card & Odds

• Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya [UFC middleweight main event bout]
• Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal [UFC co-main welterweight bout]
• Rob Font vs. Adrian Yanez [UFC bantamweight bout]
• Kevin Holland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio [UFC welterweight bout]
• Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Christian Rodriguez [UFC bantamweight bout]

UFC 287 Preliminary Card & Odds

• Kelvin Gastelum vs. Chris Curtis [UFC middleweight bout]
• Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Luana Pinheiro [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
• Karl Williams vs. Chase Sherman [UFC heavyweight bout]
• Gerald Meerschaert vs. Joseph Pyfer [UFC middleweight bout]
• Cynthia Calvillo vs. Lupita Godinez [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
• Trey Ogden vs. Ignacio Bahamondes [UFC catchweight bout]
• Steve Garcia vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke [UFC featherweight bout]
• Sam Hughes vs. Jaqueline Amorim [UFC women’s strawweight bout]

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.