Top UFC Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) [1.75u to win 1u] at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
In the UFC’s return to the Apex in Nevada this weekend, a rematch between top-15-ranked middleweight competitors will be the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs at the top sportsbooks.
Submission specialist Brendan Allen hopes to avenge his most recent loss back in 2021 when he meets the hard-hitting Chris Curtis for a second time during his career.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 90 main event clash between Allen and Curtis, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
UFC Vegas 90 Information
- When: Saturday, April 6, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 13
- Main Event: Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis
- Moneyline Probability: Allen – 67.2% (-205) Curtis – 36.4% (+175)
UFC Vegas 90 Main Event: Allen vs. Curtis
Brendan “All In” Allen
Dana White’s Contender Series alum Brendan Allen revisits one of his past losses this weekend to headline a second straight Fight Night event. The Louisiana native is seemingly on a roll and must feel like he cannot be stopped.
With an 11-2 record since joining the main roster in 2019, Allen’s growth from a young buck in his early twenties to a potential contender has played out in front of our eyes. This weekend’s rematch will be crucial in his rise to an established top-10 contender, but can he fix the mistakes that caused him to lose via knockout to the ever-dangerous ‘Action Man’?
Allen Best ML Odds: -205 at BetOnline
Chris “Action-Man” Curtis
With an opportunity to debut on the main stage in a short-notice replacement bout versus Phil Hawes in 2021, Chris Curtis reveled in this opportunity and stunned onlookers as he cashed a +250 debut in this debut bout. Since that date, he’s competed six times, amassing a 5-2 record behind a solid offensive boxing skillset.
Former title challengers Kelvin Gastelum and Jack Hermanson have been the only men to prevent Curtis from winning thus far. With wins over Joaquin Buckley and Rodolfo Viera, we know it takes a special talent to overcome the Xtreme Couture brawler.
Curtis Best ML Odds: +175 at BetOnline
UFC Vegas 90: Tale of the Tape
UFC Vegas 90 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
The first red flag regarding this rematch arrives via the betting lines. While his in-cage improvements have undoubtedly been noteworthy, Allen enters Saturday as a -205 favorite despite losing to this same opponent via KO/TKO the first time they fought.
It’s understandable that Allen is a favorite; Curtis' rudimentary style has been solved since the first contest, and we did witness the younger, more energetic fighter in Allen catch a takedown and regain control during the first bout.
However, Allen, in my opinion, the UFC odds should be sat around the -130 mark at best. Curtis’ takedown and submission defense is top-notch, which would be Allen’s greatest path to victory.
Should this contest play out on the feet, Curtis's Philly-shell boxing style could certainly prove difficult to overcome once Allen's cardio levels slow down in the later rounds, as we’ve seen in past fights. In contrast, while his gas tank isn’t perfect, Curtis will continue swinging to his last dying breath and should have an advantage in a kickboxing battle.
The UFC Vegas 90 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds have placed Allen as the betting favorite. While his current six-fight win streak is noteworthy, oddsmakers are lining this fight based on current trends instead of the style of matchup presented.
Am I confident enough to take the Curtis moneyline? No. Instead, I’m looking toward the total of two and a half rounds to go over, as a five-round dual, I expect, will keep a restrained pace early on.
Allen went all out in the first contest, and he’ll understand that Curtis’ defense and durability are some of the best in the division. For this reason, and because the potential of a 25-minute contest presents itself, we can expect patience early on.
Curtis isn’t the type of fighter to headhunt, but more so, he’ll wait for the opportune moment to present itself before finishing his fights.
We have a dangerous power puncher and a submission specialist, two factors that will unquestionably worry people looking at the over. That said, the added cardio caution of a five-round bout will definitely switch the game plans for these two, and should this fight end via KO/TKO or submission, I don’t envision it happening in the early rounds.
UFC Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) [1.75u to win 1u] at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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