Top UFC Pick: Over 3.5 Rounds (-140) [1.4u to win 1u] at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Rio de Janeiro will host an epic lineup of fights for UFC 301 this weekend, and I, as your trusted expert, am back to assist with all your betting needs for the highly anticipated flyweight championship main event.
The reigning, defending, 125lb titleholder, Alexandre Pantoja, faces an Australian challenger in Steve Erceg, and we can expect a thrilling, tightly fought battle when looking at the current betting odds available at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Read on for our comprehensive betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 301 main event clash between Pantoja and Erceg, including updated UFC odds and our meticulously crafted free expert UFC first look betting picks, predictions and analysis.
For more top MMA picks, visit our YouTube channel, including two additional UFC bouts with great value: Jose Aldo vs. Jonathan Martinez and Vitor Petrino vs. Anthony Smith.
UFC 301 Information
- When: Saturday, May 4, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET
- Where: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Scheduled Bouts: 14
- Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg
- Moneyline Probability: Pantoja – 64.9% (-185) Erceg – 37.2% (+169)
UFC 301 Main Event: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Flyweight Title Bout
Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja
It was a career dream for Alexandre Pantoja to defend a championship in front of his home nation, and the UFC granted his wish as “The Cannibal” enters Rio de Janeiro this weekend atop the fight card with his recently claimed flyweight strap on the line.
Regarding experience and noteworthy career wins, there aren’t many 125-pounders who’ve overcome the top-tier opponents Pantoja has. From the striking excellence of Manel Kape to the well-versed skills of Brandon Moreno and the dangerous finishing ability of Brandon Royval (twice), Pantoja has defied his critics on multiple occasions to reach the championship status he currently protects.
Pantoja Best ML Odds: -185 at Bovada
Steve “Astroboy” Erceg
Australia’s Steve Erceg travels to Rio and won’t compete against one man but an entire arena filled with Brazilian-blooded supporters praying for his downfall. More surprisingly, he’s reached a main event championship bout with just three UFC contests on his record.
Erceg made his promotional debut just eleven months ago in a bout against David Dvorak, where he outclassed the experienced Czech native. Following this fight, the Aussie has had two consecutive wins, including a beautiful TKO success over Matt Schell. The Aussie has been thrown straight into the deep end, which sees him compete for a championship with less than a year spent on the UFC roster.
Erceg Best ML Odds: +169 at BetOnline
UFC 301: Tale of the Tape
UFC 301 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Pantoja is an elite grappler with emphatic ground skills, scrambling abilities, and submission stoppage potential. On the feet, he’s evolved greatly since his UFC debut, and while most are overlooking his knockout potential, he unquestionably packs enough power to put the opposition's lights out.
Conversely, Erceg prefers to box. He’s a technical striker who enjoys tackling the opposition from range behind combinations and well-planned offense. However, with a significant size advantage, don’t be surprised if he finds success in grappling situations, as his ground game is often overlooked due to his preferred style.
Overall, both Pantoja and Erceg truly put the ‘mixed’ in mixed martial arts. Of course, they excel in the previously mentioned areas but equally combine the multiple facets of MMA excellently, which makes predicting their methods of victory very challenging.
The UFC 301 Best Bet Formula
The UFC odds have placed Pantoja as a betting favorite, but the public action has consistently moved the moneyline back and forth since its opening. This is completely indicative of how close this fight could be, as only the proven experience of Erceg is a factor that prevents the ML price from being closer than what it currently is.
As previously mentioned, Pantoja and Erceg's diverse abilities are noteworthy. I could genuinely see either man walking out of the Farmasi Arena with a knockout, submission, or decision win. However, I respect the durability both have displayed during their careers, making the over 3.5 rounds at -140 a value play.
Erceg and Pantoja have never been stopped inside the distance, and while defensive holes can be found, respectable chins and defensive grappling skills should keep this fight going into the third round and beyond.
UFC Pick: Over 3.5 Rounds (-140) [1.4u to win 1u] at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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