Editor’s Note: The line flipped from Army -1.5 to Navy -2.5 during the week.
The 123rd meeting between Army and Navy is sporting some tight college football odds, and we’re exploring what the Midshipmen have to do to set anchor on the 2022 season on a winning note.
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Navy Midshipmen vs. Army Black Knights
Saturday, December 10, 2022 – 03:00 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field
Pardon me while I get a little personal about this year’s battle between the Midshipmen and Black Knights, but it’s an upset around our house if Navy doesn’t beat Army, regardless of what the odds might say.
But I’ll play along with the numbers at the top sportsbooks and pretend it will be an upset if Navy beats Army. It certainly won’t be much of an upset either way with the Black Knights favored by a single point after opening -1½, and some shops already have it as a pick ‘em.
‘Under’ on 17-Year Run
If we first look at the historic game from a point spread perspective, the underdog has a pretty good thing going by winning three of the last six meetings outright, with their backers at least cashing in seven of the last 11, along with one push in that mix.
Of course, if we just focus on the betting aspect of this matchup, the only sensible thing to do is to play the ‘under,’ with each of the last 17 meetings (2006-2021) stopping short of the totals. The scoreboard target this year is 33-34 at various shops.
Option Left, Option Right
The offensive schemes for both teams make it obvious why there isn’t much scoring in this rivalry, the clock-eating option attacks this year matching up two of the top 10 rushing attacks in the country with Army (304 ypg) ranking second and Navy coming in seventh (239 ypg).
It’s correct to call triple option schemes simple in nature, but foolish to consider them easy to defend. Both Army and Navy used their simple ground games to the benefit of bettors this season, the Midshipmen going 7-4 against the spread and the Black Knights 6-5.
And despite being boring to some, both sides also scored more than expected along the way. Navy was 6-5 O/U in the totals column and Army 7-4 O/U.
Who Has the Advantage on Defense
Army may have the offensive advantage in terms of yardage per game on the ground, but Navy has proven it can pull off an upset without even completing a pass, doing so the week before Thanksgiving with a 17-14 win over UCF as 14½-point underdogs at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
The Midshipmen also have a statistical edge against the run defensively, allowing less than 86 yards per game while the Black Knights surrender more than 193. Those numbers might be deceiving, however.
Navy proved far more vulnerable to the pass during the season, ranking 114th in the nation (270 ypg), and that was one reason teams didn’t run on the Midshipmen as much. To beat Army, Navy will have to remain stalwart against the run and not get caught sleeping on the few passes Army eventually throws.
Special Teams Edge Goes to Midshipmen
One missed coverage in the defensive backfield can easily mean the difference in an even matchup like this one, just as the team that rules the kicking game can be on top at the final gun, and Navy has the advantage there.
Due to not having any individual reaching the minimum number of boots, you won’t find anyone from Navy listed among the national leaders in punting or field goals, yet Riley Riethman and Daniel Davies give the Midshipmen the check mark in those two areas.
Both Teams Disciplined
It goes without saying that turnovers are a huge factor in any football game, and even more so in a rivalry contest like the Black Knights and Midshipmen have renewed each season since 1930.
But while turnovers factor into it, neither side has an advantage this season in the column. Both teams not only protect the ball well, Army and Navy are very disciplined when it comes to mental mistakes and penalties as well.
Navy’s Bowl Game
Geography also favors a college football pick on Navy. Philadelphia, perhaps because it is ever so slightly closer to Annapolis than West Point, has historically favored the Midshipmen who have won 11 of the last 13 matchups in the City of Brotherly Love.
Finally, it would be wrong to suggest either side “wanted it more.” Pride, effort, and commitment are never issues with either Army or Navy.
The Black Knights need the dubya to become bowl eligible, and no team would like to deny them a postseason appearance more than Navy. The Midshipmen are going to be home for the holidays, and this is their bowl game.
Don't forget to check our guide on the best Pennsylvania betting sites if you plan to wager from the Keystone State.
*The line and/or odds in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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