Rose Bowl Euphoria
Michigan is headed to the CFP Championship with a perfect 13-0 record, and we have three takeaways from the Wolverines’ win and cover over Alabama in the Rose Bowl to help us with our picks in the title tilt.
Was this year’s edition of the Rose Bowl the granddaddy of every granddaddy of them all? Michigan’s 27-20 overtime win over Alabama certainly provided enough excitement to qualify as one of the best, if not the best.
Bettors who were on the Wolverines -2½ at the main offshore sportsbooks will tell you it was the best Rose Bowl ever; those folks who dropped coin backing Alabama, not so much.
The bigger question is: what did we learn from the Wolverines win and cover over the Crimson Tide, and how can we use it when making a pick on the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?
Michigan Has a Really Good Defense
There has long been a stigma regarding the Big Ten not being a very exciting conference offensively, and that had some talking before the game that Michigan’s top-ranked defense was at least partially a product of it being a rather lackluster year for offense in the league.
That notion should have been put to rest following the Wolverines’ defensive performance Monday afternoon in Pasadena.
Michigan held the Crimson Tide to a season-low 288 yards, keeping them under the 300-line that defenses like Georgia, Texas A&M, and Texas failed to do. It was also the second-fewest points for Alabama, the low being a 17-3 result at South Florida back in September.
What the Wolverines really did was turn the tables on the Crimson Tide by keeping their offense from being exciting. Much of that credit goes to Michigan’s defensive coordinator Jesse Minter and his assistants for devising schemes to keep Alabama from reeling off a big play.
Defensive Back Dominance
Obviously, the players deserve a lot of the credit as well, and it should start with the defensive backs for their smothering coverage in holding Jalen Milroe and the Crimson Tide to just 116 yards through the air.
Milroe’s longest completion was a 19-yard pass to Isaiah Bond late in the second quarter on a drive that ultimately ended with an Alabama field goal. There were just three more Crimson Tide pass plays that went for more than 10 yards.
Rod Moore, Mike Sainristil, Makari Paige, and Will Johnson stepped up time and time again in coverage. And it was their play that allowed the defensive front to wreak havoc in the Alabama backfield to the tune of six sacks, five in the first half alone.
The Crimson Tide did occasionally find success on the ground against the Wolverines, including a 34-yard touchdown run by Jase McClellan that gave Alabama the initial lead in the game. But when it counted most, Michigan rose and stuffed Milroe on fourth down in overtime and set off celebrations in Ann Arbor.
It took overtime to send the contest past a 45½-point total, leaving the Wolverines a level 6-6-1 O/U heading into the CFP Championship. It marked the third Michigan ‘over’ on the NCAAF odds in the last four games.
McCarthy Seems to Find a Way
Okay, so we’ll cut Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh a little slack for gushing on his quarterback JJ McCarthy. Harbaugh called McCarthy “the greatest quarterback in University of Michigan college football history,” and immediately started to compare him to another pretty good Wolverines signal caller named Tom Brady.
We understand why Harbaugh might have been a little excited after the big win, and we also understand why McCarthy is certainly in the conversation for the greatest Michigan quarterback.
McCarthy enjoyed a very solid and efficient season, throwing for 2,851 yards and leading the Big Ten with a 170.09 QB rating that was accomplished with a 22:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The 6-3 junior then calmly went 17-27 for 221 yards and three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl, and found a way to win it in the end.
Where McCarthy was most impressive was in leading the Wolverines on a game-tying drive late in the fourth quarter to force overtime. McCarthy and Michigan’s offense struggled on their first four possessions of the second half, two of them 3-&-outs that had ‘under’ bettors at online sportsbooks licking their chops.
McCarthy then accounted for 76 yards on the game-tying drive, 60 of those through the air and capped by a 4-yard TD pass to Roman Wilson.
Michigan Special Teams Shaky
While the offense and defense were performing well for the Wolverines, the same can’t be said about the special teams.
Had McCarthy not engineered that 4th-quarter drive or the defense plugged Milroe in overtime, it would have been a long winter for the Michigan punting and kicking squads. In fact, it wouldn’t have even gone to overtime had the Wolverines not botched the snap on a PAT in the second quarter.
The Wolverines missed their only field goal attempt, and were lacking in the punting game that helped the Crimson Tide to better field position. A muffed punt at the end of regulation would’ve been the real backbreaker had Michigan not recovered the fumble.
Special teams are indeed special, and Michigan can ill-afford a repeat performance by its kicking and return squads against Washington in the CFP Championship.
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