Just as they have done all season, the Washington Huskies beat the NCAAF odds to win the Sugar Bowl. What did we learn from that game that will give us a betting edge for the CFP Championship?
Playoff Hopes Alive
When you live in Central Texas, you get used to seeing a lot of orange, and the general mood of the populace can often be determined by a Longhorns win or a loss. For example, even Mother Nature is a bit foul a day after Washington’s win over Texas, with cloudy skies, a chance for rain and raw temps in the mid-40s for the Austin area.
That’s pretty much the same forecast as Seattle for Tuesday, January 2nd, but it certainly won’t be as gloomy for the Huskies and their fans after keeping their College Football Playoff Championship hopes alive by beating the Longhorns.
And just like a rainy forecast for Seattle is the norm, beating the odds in recent weeks has also become the norm for the Huskies at the main offshore sportsbooks.
Penix & Co. Overcome Midseason Blues
Washington started out this season making a lot of friends with college football bettors by covering numbers in three of the first four games and pushing the fourth. But then came a 4-game stretch of worthless betting slips.
The Huskies struggled to just win straight-up, much less against the spread. In October matchups with Arizona State and Stanford, there was a definite shift in expectations for this team by both the oddsmakers and bettors, each expecting Washington’s win streak to come to an end.
The Huskies were favored by about four touchdowns in both the 15-7 triumph against the Sun Devils and 42-33 decision on the road against the Cardinal. They also played down to the competition in a tighter-than-expected home games against Utah and rival Washington State for the Apple Cup.
But despite their 21-game win streak, the Huskies still didn’t get much respect from the sportsbooks or the bettors by playing as underdogs in three of their last four contests. Michael Penix Jr. was unquestionably a huge reason why Washington was able to not only cover the spreads but beat Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship and Texas in the Sugar Bowl.
Red Zone Redemption
It’s almost impossible to conceive how Arizona State held Penix and the Huskies to just 15 points back in October. The Sun Devils were a middling – at best – defense in the Pac-12, and Penix was directly responsible for three of Washington’s four turnovers in the game.
Penix and the Huskies couldn’t manage to cross the goal line against ASU, but they quickly righted the ship, and the senior shined in the Sugar Bowl matchup with 430 yards through the air on 29-38 passing, three of the completions for scores.
It isn’t all Penix, of course. Dillon Johnson helps keep defenses honest after ranking third in the Pac-12 with 1,162 yards on the ground. It was tough sledding in the Sugar Bowl where the Longhorns held Johnson to just 49 yards, but he did turn two of his 21 carries into 12 points.
Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb also have the luxury of an impressive O-Line to protect Penix. The Huskies were tied for fourth nationally, allowing only 11 sacks all year coming into the Sugar Bowl, and the big guys up front kept Penix upright the entire game against a Texas rush that was second in the Big 12 with 32 QB takedowns.
Huskies – Bend, But Don’t Break Defense
While Penix and the Huskies were busy leading the nation in passing with a 350 YPG clip, the Washington defense was basically wallowing in mediocrity. The unit was down towards the bottom of the national heap allowing 400 yards a game, and last in the Pac-12 accumulating just 21 sacks.
And yet, the defense was in the top third of the country allowing 24.1 PPG, adopting something of a bend, but don’t break philosophy that followed the Huskies to the Sugar Bowl.
Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns rolled up nearly 500 yards of offense, 318 of that through the air. But the Huskies didn’t make it easy for Ewers and Texas early on, and just when it looked as if the Longhorns were going to rally from a 13-point deficit, cornerback Elijah Jackson swatted those hopes away.
Washington was able to harass Ewers in the first half when the Longhorns missed several opportunities. It took a Washington turnover on a punt return to set Texas up for one score in the first half, and edge rusher Bralen Trice recorded a couple of sacks along the way.
UW Can’t Count on UM Making Mistakes
Texas was its own worst enemy at times in New Orleans, starting the game with a procedure snafu that served as a trend the rest of the way as the Longhorns were flagged for 10 penalties, plus the forementioned turnovers.
Washington did well in that column all season, committing fewer mistakes than its opponents, and the Huskies can’t depend on that against a disciplined Michigan outfit in the championship.
The Wolverines have committed just 40 penalties all season, second-fewest in the nation, and they only turned it over eight times, also second-fewest. For the Huskies to defy the oddsmakers one more time and prove to be the right pick, they certainly aren’t going to get much help from Michigan.
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