Top NCAAF Pick: Dan Lanning (-175) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Our main offshore sportsbooks have released their NCAAF odds for Alabama’s decision to replace Nick Saban, who announced his retirement yesterday, as the head coach of the Crimson Tide.
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning is favored heavily, but a lot of other highly qualified candidates are being talked about. I will recommend wagering on Lanning but also, as somewhat of a long-shot option, on Kalen DeBoer, Washington’s head coach.
I would invest a full unit in Lanning and, because the payout would be so nice, a quarter of a unit in DeBoer.
Nick Saban Is Done
The coaching legend announced his retirement yesterday in the early evening time. Saban is moving on and someone is going to take his place.
An Outsider Will Take The Job
The position of head coach at Alabama is arguably the most prestigious job in the college football world. Largely thanks to Saban, Bama is as high-profile as it gets.
Because of this, the position will be won by an outsider – nobody under Saban could possibly have proven himself to be good enough for the job. One of college football’s top head coaches is going to get the job. The question now is who.
We will reportedly get an answer in the next few days, so let’s analyze the likeliest prospects, and I recommend that you join me in placing your wagers as soon as you possibly can.
The Odds
Around late evening yesterday, I saw that Dan Lanning was favored at +200 to become Alabama’s next head coach.
As of 5:50 a.m. on Thursday morning, Lanning is now favored, only now he is at -130. At 6:20 a.m., he is at -175.
This is a huge shift in the odds. Consider that there are a ton of possible people who could take the position. For someone to be chalked means that he is favored in a stronger sense than when we talk about one team being favored to beat another team. I will talk about why Lanning is the best bet to make, but let’s realize that he is not the only option.
It is true that he has flown to and arrived in Tuscaloosa – this fact helps explain why he is favored so heavily now.
Contemplating Succession
It is also well-known that Saban is a thorough planner.
He probably knew well in advance that he was going to retire and he probably hand-picked his favorite choice, which, given the weight that he holds as a member of the Alabama football community, means a lot. But of course, he is not the Director of Athletics at Bama – Greg Byrne holds this job.
Sportsbooks, while taking a ton of money on Lanning, are still taking bets because the question as to who replaces Saban is still open. Just because Lanning is in Tuscaloosa does not mean that he has been hired.
Bama certainly does have interest in him, which makes him a likelier candidate than all the other options in whom Bama does not have interest. And Alabama’s interest in Lanning is well-justified. But there are other options, which I will discuss, and I will explain why Kalen DeBoer is a longer-shot option worth investing in for some additional betting fun.
Dan Lanning
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning is well-qualified to be Alabama’s next head coach.
With the help of strong recruiting, Lanning led Oregon to a 12-2 season, with their two losses coming in tight affairs against national runner-up Washington.
You have to consider that Alabama wants a coach who can maintain the elite status of its football program. Lanning is clearly such a guy, given the place to which he has taken the Ducks.
- His Ducks earned a Fiesta Bowl spot, where they crushed Liberty on January 1 to the tune of 45-6.
- Lanning has his Ducks being physical and strong on defense, both of which – physicality and strong defense – are hallmarks of Crimson Tide football.
- With hugely successful Bo Nix as his quarterback, Lanning is already used to making the most of a mobile quarterback – Jalen Milroe for the Tide is also a mobile quarterback.
Lanning is perhaps most especially intriguing because of his personal ties to Saban.
He was a Graduate Assistant at Bama and apparently made a good enough impression on Saban for Saban to want to hire him for a position in 2018 – only Georgia grabbed Lanning first.
Other Options
People have speculated on other candidates, who are getting respect from oddsmakers, but who are not worth your investment.
Clemson’s Dabo Swinney would have been an intriguing option a few years ago, but he no longer appears to be someone who can maintain the elite status of a program. Clemson has declined in recent years.
Lane Kiffin has Ole Miss in a great spot. While he was Bama’s offensive coordinator, his personal tie to Bama does not suffice to make him worth an investment. This is because Ole Miss’s defense is still not good. Bama will want someone who it can trust to make its defense elite.
Steve Sarkisian is a similarly appealing option, but he has such a great gig at Texas, that it seems unlikely he’ll give it up.
My Long-Shot Pick: Kalen DeBoer
Washington’s head coach is reportedly someone who Alabama’s AD is interested in.
With a career record of 104-12, he is a proven winner. He just took Washington to the national championship, so he is someone who can make a football program elite.
While Washington’s defense isn’t great, he doesn’t have the reputation that Kiffin does as an offensive genius, which is part of what leads one to question Kiffin’s commitment to defense.
DeBoer’s commitment to defense is unquestioned because, unlike Kiffin’s Rebels, DeBoer’s Huskies have shown improvement in this respect. Giving stronger tackling as an example, Huskies beat writers show agreement that Washington’s defense was better on the field in 2023 than it was in 2022.
Washington’s physicality is also impressive, as evident in its Pac-12 title game win over Oregon, where it shut down Oregon’s star running back.
NCAAF Pick: Kalen DeBoer (+1100) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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