Top NCAAF Pick: Michigan -4½ (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
College football betting concludes the 2023-24 season with the CFP Championship, and we have the NCAAF odds analysis for the contest.
In a perfect world, this year’s College Football Playoff Championship Game would be held at the Rose Bowl where the Big Ten and Pac-12 have long squared off to close a campaign. It would have been a fitting way to say so long to the Pac-8, 10, and 12 of yesteryear.
But this is anything but a perfect world. The only thing the Michigan Wolverines and Washington Huskies care about remaining perfect are the unbeaten records they bring to Houston for what promises to be one memorable evening at our main offshore sportsbooks.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Washington Huskies
Monday, January 08, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at NRG Stadium
Early Line Movement Towards the ‘Dogs
Less than 24 hours after the matchup was decided, sportsbooks hung -5 on Michigan for the title tilt. And very soon after that, enough action on the underdog Huskies shifted the spread to -4½.
Meanwhile, the initial offering of 55 for the total has been on the rise. Most shops have upped it half a tick to 55½, with some going to 56.
A big chunk of this rivalry’s history took place in Pasadena. It’s been a little more than 30 years since the Wolverines and Huskies met in back-to-back Rose Bowls, with Michigan winning the 1992 and 1993 events.
Washington and Michigan also met in the 1978 and 1981 granddaddy games, with the Huskies and Wolverines splitting those contests.
Michigan holds the all-time advantage having won eight of 13. The most recent meeting took place just a little more than two years ago in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines easily covered a 6½-point spread with a 31-10 final that fell about a TD short of the total.
Johnson Expected to Play for Huskies
Kalen DeBoer and Michael Penix Jr. first met in Bloomington. The former was the offensive coordinator and the latter an oft-injured quarterback. Their reunion in Seattle a couple of years ago has put Washington football not only back on the map, but among the elite programs.
While Penix finished as the runner-up to LSU’s Jayden Daniels for the Heisman Trophy, the Washington QB’s performance in the Sugar Bowl doesn’t take a backseat to any signal caller in this season’s bowls. Penix directed the Huskies to touchdowns on three of their first five possessions. He also finished 29-38 for 430 yards and two scores.
Though not known for his running ability, Penix also got in a couple of nice scrambles to keep Washington’s drives alive. Ultimately, he managed to upset the odds that closed Texas -3½.
Speaking of the Huskies’ ground game, leading rusher Dillon Johnson is listed as probable for the championship after reaggravating a foot injury late in the win over the Longhorns. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said he expects the Pac-12’s third-leading rusher to play.
Can Harbaugh Shake Another Monkey Off His Back?
When it comes to shaking a monkey off your back, Michigan’s win over Alabama in the Rose Bowl more closely resembled throwing a 900-pound gorilla to the wayside following a season of scandal and doubt for head coach Jim Harbaugh.
It certainly didn’t look like the Wolverines were going to shake their bowl-losing skid midway through the fourth quarter despite another brilliant performance by the defense. JJ McCarthy and the offense cinched up their collective belt, however, to beat both the Crimson Tide and the chalk that top sportsbooks laid on Michigan.
McCarthy, tailback Blake Corum, and wide receiver Roman Wilson, certainly deserve some credit, as well as the O-Line. Michigan’s defensive line also gets gold stars for six sacks.
But the game ball really went to the defensive backs who smothered Alabama wideouts, and it will be the first matchup to watch when Rod Moore, Will Johnson, Makari Paige, and Mike Sainristil face the Washington receivers.
Bowl Histories & Betting Trends
Michigan’s Rose Bowl win halted a string of six consecutive bowl losses. Prior to beating Alabama on New Year’s Day, the Wolverines’ last bowl win had been a 41-7 rout of Florida in the 2016 Citrus Bowl.
The first CFP Championship for the Wolverines marks their 52nd bowl appearance with a 22-29 mark. Michigan is 3-7 ATS in the previous 10, with totals running 7-3 O/U.
Washington is also appearing in its first CFP Championship and the 42nd bowl appearance for the Huskies. Don’t expect the locals who show up in Houston to be too fond of the Huskies since their last two bowl games have resulted in wins over Texas, taking the Longhorns down in this year’s Sugar Bowl and last year’s Alamo Bowl.
The Huskies are currently riding a 3-game bowl win streak both straight-up and against the spread, the ‘over’ in this year’s Sugar Bowl halting a string of three consecutive ‘under’ winners in Washington bowl games.
The Pick
Both teams depended upon a defensive stop to get them into this matchup, and if it comes down to defense, Michigan is the obvious college football pick. And that’s just how I’m going to play it in a 31-24 Wolverines win.
NCAAF Pick: Michigan -4½ (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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