Top UFC Pick: Tuivasa ML (-120) [1.20u to win 1u] at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)
The UFC returns to the small Apex cage in Nevada this weekend with two heavyweight brutes set to exchange leather for the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 88 main event clash between Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura. It includes updated UFC odds and our expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions and analysis for you to cash at top-rated online sportsbooks.
UFC Vegas 88
- When: Saturday, March 16, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex
- Scheduled Bouts: 13
- Main Event: Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
- Moneyline Probability: Tuivasa – 54.5% (-120) Tybura – 48.8% (+105)
UFC Vegas 88 Main Event
Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa
Suppose chugging beers out of a dirty shoe was an MMA award; Tai Tuivasa would deserve all the flowers and then some. Unfortunately, it isn’t; however, the famous “shoey” celebration that has made ‘Bam Bam’ a fan favorite wouldn’t have been possible without the emphatic knockout victories he’s achieved as a UFC heavyweight.
To date, Tuivasa has triumphed in the octagon on eight occasions, including knockout wins over noteworthy names such as Derrick Lewis, Augusto Sakai and Stefan Struve. Sure, he’s riding a three-fight losing streak, and some will question this, but we should highlight the five-fight win streak he’d previously obtained, which is the second-longest in UFC heavyweight history.
Tuivasa Best ML Odds: (-120) at BetAnySports
Marcin “Tybur” Tybura
With an 11-7 promotional record, a first glimpse of Marcin Tybura’s UFC tenure wouldn’t impress most. That said, prior to a devasting knockout at the hands of the current interim champ Tom Aspinall, the Polish native had won six of his last seven bouts, including a fraud check on the hyped Alexandr Romanov.
A steady striking offense alongside a BJJ black belt presents Tybura with a diverse skill set. However, his UFC career metrics show that he’s achieved 20 takedowns, a factor that should worry any opponents who are deficient in their takedown defense.
Tybura Best ML Odds: (+105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
UFC Vegas 88: Tale of the Tape
UFC Vegas 88 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know how this weekend’s main event will present contrasting game plans. Tybura will be hunting takedowns against an opponent who’s often struggled in this area. At the same time, Tuivasa is a head-hunting menace who’ll look to capitalize on the Pole’s 57% knockout loss rate.
Aged 38, Tybura isn’t getting any younger. He certainly presents a well-mixed skill set, but a lack of aggression has cost him on several occasions, and this reactive style doesn’t bode well when faced with savages like Tuivasa.
While takedowns have been Tuivasa’s kryptonite on occasions, he’s also displayed a respectful ability to return to his feet. Across five rounds, I struggle to envision Tybura maintaining grounded positions, and it won’t take long before the KO threat of ‘Bam Bam’ becomes very real.
Tuivasa Moneyline: The UFC Vegas 88 Best Bet Formula
The odds have placed Tuivasa as a slight betting favorite, and the tightly matched odds don’t come as much of a surprise.
I agree this bout is almost a coin flip, but the knockout upside to Tuivasa’s game cannot be ignored, especially when the return fire of Tybura won’t be a problematic moment for the Aussie.
Expect Tybura to attempt takedowns early and often, but he cannot match the ground skills of past opponents who have succeeded in this game plan against Tuivasa, and eventually, a knockout moment for the slight favorite will emerge.
UFC Pick: Tuivasa ML (-120) [1.20u to win 1u] at BetAnySports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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