This Super Bowl is coming and we thought it would be fun to have a subjective article and compare our position by position evaluation to the point spread.
Let’s break down each position to determine who has the edge and compare it to the betting odds for the Big Game. As of Tuesday, Everygame (visit our Everygame Review) and other sportsbooks have the Los Angeles Rams as a four-point favorite with a total of 48.5.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, February 13, 2022 – 06:30 PM EST at SoFi Stadium
Quarterback
For years, the talk was always if Matthew Stafford played on a really good football team, his true greatness would show, instead of being buried in Detroit. Though the former Georgia football star was not always perfect, he’s answered all the questions about leadership and playing under pressure in the playoffs. Despite 905 passing yards and a 6-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio in the playoffs, there is a lingering aspect of Stafford having “one of the games” and we cannot forget he closed the regular season with seven picks.
Joe Burrow doesn’t have an official nickname yet, but if he wins this Super Bowl he will. Burrow is unflappable and whether he’s up 14 points or down 14 points, he has supreme confidence in himself to make plays. His team beat Tennessee despite allowing nine sacks and he trailed by 18 at Kansas City in the AFC title tilt and won both games. He’s the reason why Cincinnati has a chance.
BMR View – Bengals -2 point edge
Running Backs and Receivers
Though each team was slightly below average in rushing attempts, both head coaches prefer to establish the run during games. The Rams welcomed back Cam Akers to go with Sony Michel and though L.A. has only averaged 2.9 yards a carry in the playoffs, they did face Tampa Bay and San Francisco, two of the best-running units in the sport. Joe Mixon does whatever is necessary for Cincinnati, be it running or receiving.
Cincinnati receivers have garnered a lot of attention, with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and C.J. Uzomah, leading to big plays. However, the Rams pass offense with Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr. and various tight ends actually have averaged more yards per pass attempt than the Bengals. (7.9 vs. 7.8) The ability for either group to get open will be important.
BMR View – Bengals -1 point edge (RB’s) and Rams -1 point edge (WR’s)
Offensive Line
Cincinnati’s offensive line has been much maligned for all the sacks they have given up and that is justified. The Bengals rushing offense has only gone over 84 yards once in their past half-dozen starts. Where the line has excelled in the screen game, helping generate several big plays.
It is generally accepted the Rams have the better O-Line in this matchup and it would not be a surprise for this group to want to see if they can shove Cincy around in the trenches.
BMR View – Rams -1.5 points
Defensive Front 7
One of the major storylines will be how the Cincinnati offensive line holds up Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and the rest of the L.A. defensive line and linebackers. The Rams don’t blitz much and they probably will not to start the game given how effective their front four is. The Los Angeles linebackers do the work in pass protection and have more than enough speed to chase down plays on the outside.
Amazingly, the Bengals have held up as well as they did on defense, considering they have allowed 148.4 YPG rushing at an unbelievable 5.7 YPC the last five times they have taken the field. However, in the playoffs, they have made adjustments at halftime and were vastly improved, placing opponents in many 3rd and longs. If they can pressure Stafford, that will help Immensely.
BMR View – Rams -2 points
Secondary
It was assumed the Los Angeles secondary would be vulnerable in beginning the playoffs with serious issues at safety. Miraculously they have held up, in part to their teammates' pass rush. However, they will be severely tested by Burrow and company.
The Cincy secondary is nothing special, yet, they, like the rest of the squad, have stepped up and made plays since the end of the regular season and they have picked off a number of passes. If they can make this happen again this Sunday, they can swing the momentum to the team in black.
BMR View – Rams -0.5 points
Coaching
Forgetting the past few games, most will assume Zac Taylor and Sean McVay will have one rather obvious questionable coaching decision that could hurt their team.
Taylor and his staff have made excellent adjustments in games and put their players in a position to succeed, which is partly what they are paid for. Though experience doesn’t count for everything, it can still matter in a game of this magnitude.
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As for McVay in his first Super Bowl, there were no answers for Bill Belichick’s game plan. Chances are that experience will help him, but he’s still an excitable type, who could make a mistake in the moment. McVay’s play-calling has been very good and he seems to have a better feel on how and when to adjust.
BMR View – Rams -1
Kickers
Though L.A. Matt Gay has put together a very solid season, Cincinnati’s Evan McPherson is supremely confident and if either has 50+ yard kick to win the game, hard to go against McPherson right now.
BMR View – Bengals -0.5
Intangibles
You will not get many arguments about who has the better squad, it is Los Angeles. Though the Rams have not had much of a home advantage since returning to the City of Angels, the ability to go home every night and sleep in your own bed and be in very familiar surroundings has to give them an edge going into Sunday.
Cincinnati with Burrow has the look of a team of destiny and beating the odds. We’ve already had the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Braves winning championships in their respective sports, so why can’t the Bengals win?
BMR View – Even
For NFL picks, if you go by rosters and particular edges, Los Angeles should win and cover. But Super Bowls are not won on paper or computer screens, that’s why for this particular article, we think Cincinnati can cover.
Everygame Line – Rams -4
BMR View Line – Rams -2.5
Calculators
